340
FXUS65 KBOI 110811
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
211 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...An upper level ridge
to our north will weaken and move south overhead by late Sunday.
This will bring dry and increasingly warmer weather. Sunday
night, an upper level trough will begin to move onto the coast
and then across our area Monday. This will bring showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm to part of the area (generally within
about 50 miles of the NV/ID border), and a few degrees of
cooling. Dry northwest flow behind the trough will be with us
Monday night. Winds will be generally weak, but increase to
10-15 kt Sunday east of Mountain Home, and 15-20 kt Monday in
the same area.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Tuesday will begin with
dry NW flow aloft as a strong ridge off the coast drifts slowly
east. Models still diverge strongly Wed, with some indicating
the ridge will remain strong enough to keep us warm and dry
through Thursday, while others bring a strong trough into SW
Canada and associated westerly flow over our area. The GFS
ensembles favor the stronger ridge, while the EC ensembles favor
stronger westerly flow. Even though machine learning models also
favor the EC ensemble mean, the NBM temps are more in line with
the GFS ensemble mean, and therefore seem to keep temps too warm
Wed-Thu. We have cooled temps down a few degrees. Almost all
models are cooler by Fri/Sat, so no adjustments were made for
those days. Little precipitation is in the current long term
forecast, but this is likely to be adjusted upward in the
northern mountains in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Sfc winds: NW-NE up to 10 kt, becoming W to NW
10-15 kt from KMUO to KJER/KTWF after 10/18Z. Winds at 10k ft
MSL: variable up to 10 kt, becoming NW 5-15 kt by 11/00Z.

KBOI...VFR. Sfc winds: SE around 5 kt, becoming NW around 5 kt
around 17Z.

.SUNDAY OUTLOOK...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds
5-15 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP