495
FXUS65 KBOI 121526
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
926 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...Satellite this morning reveals an area of mid
level clouds across south-central Oregon with clear skies
elsewhere. An incoming shortwave trough will interact with
moisture and weak instability across southern Oregon to produce
isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening before decreasing overnight. A warm and dry boundary
layer will allow for isolated gusts up to 50 mph from
thunderstorms across southeast Oregon. Highs today will reach
the low to mid 80s across the lower elevations, which is 10-15
degrees above normal. Winds will be breezy across south-central
Idaho today with lighter winds elsewhere. Skies should remain
mostly clear through the evening across southwest Idaho before
clouds increase overnight. No updates anticipated this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  Clear skies across southwestern Idaho
will become partly cloudy this afternoon as scattered mid-level
clouds in southeastern Oregon spread northeastward into Idaho.
There is also a slight chance (20 %) that isolated showers and
thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon in southeastern
Oregon and then diminish after sunset. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15
kt, strongest KMUO to KJER/KTWF this afternoon with gusts to 25
kt. Winds at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: light this morning,
becoming NW around 10kt with gusts to 15 kt this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...An upper level ridge
axis is over the area this morning, and it will shift east
during the day, allowing SW flow ahead of an approaching trough
to move into the area late this afternoon and tonight. This
trough is now showing up stronger than in previous runs, and we
have increased the chance of showers and thunderstorms for both
this evening and Monday. The best chance (10-30%) this
afternoon/evening is over southeast Oregon, while the best
chance Monday is in/near the eastern mountains and Owyhee and
Twin Falls counties. The trough will move out of the area Monday
afternoon/evening, pushing a cold front through the region, and
leaving us with dry NW flow aloft Tue and Tue night. After a
very warm day today with highs 10-15 degrees above normal,
temps will drop down a few degrees Monday, and then a few more
Tue. Tuesday`s highs will only be about 5 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Models are finally
coming into better agreement concerning the evolution of flow
coming into the PacNW next week. A new large ridge off the
coast will bring warming temperatures and dry conditions Wed
through Fri, after which a trough is expected to move in Sat or
Sun. This trough will result in a low chance of precipitation
mainly in the higher terrain Sat and Sun (10-30%). Northwest
winds will be a little stronger than normal each day in the long
term.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...ST
AVIATION.....JB
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP