Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
900 FXUS65 KBOI 112012 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 212 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 .SHORT TERM...An upper level ridge over the area will allow clear skies to continue tonight with light winds. Mostly sunny conditions are expected again on Sunday with afternoon temperatures running about 15 degrees above normal. Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday will reach the mid 80s in most lower valley locations of southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon. Mountain communities will see temperatures peak in the upper 60s and low 70s on Sunday. A series of shortwave troughs will pass along the northern periphery of the upper level high beginning Sunday evening causing the ridge to flatten out a bit on Monday. Moisture will also begin to increase on Monday which will bring scattered clouds into the area and about a 20 percent chance of showers to the southern most portion of the forecast area near the Nevada border. Meanwhile...93 million miles away on the sun...a large group of sunspots continues to erupt solar flares associated with a severe (G4) to occasionally extreme (G5) geomagnetic storm. NOAA`s Space Weather Prediction Center, in Boulder, Colorado, is carefully monitoring the situation and is indicating that the Aurora may be visible again tonight in a large area of the U.S. including southern Idaho and southern Oregon. && LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...An upper level ridge will remain centered over the eastern Pacific on Tuesday while a shortwave trough drops south along the east side of the ridge. The trough will move through the northern Rockies and clip our area. This will produce a 5-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms across central Idaho with dry conditions elsewhere. Northwesterly flow will cool temperatures a few degrees, and the trough will produce breezy conditions, especially across south-central Idaho. Despite the cooling, temperatures will still be around 5 degrees above normal. The ridge will build east on Wednesday, bringing dry and slightly warmer conditions. Models have come into better agreement about the pattern Thursday through Saturday, but differences remain. The EC ensemble has trended closer to the GFS ensemble in showing the ridge persisting across the Pacific Northwest, with most ensembles keeping a trough to our northeast. Dry west to northwest flow aloft under the influence of the upper level ridge would keep temperatures warm with breezy winds and little chance of precipitation, with the highest chances of rain (10-20%) across the northern mountains. && .AVIATION...VFR under clear skies through Sunday morning. Increasing mid-level clouds across SE Oregon and far SW Idaho Sunday afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt, strongest KMUO to KJER/KTWF, becoming variable 10 kt or less this evening. Winds W-NW 5-15 kt on Sunday. Winds at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt, then SE around 5 kt tonight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM....ST AVIATION.....ST