Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
441 FXUS65 KBOI 100242 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 842 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 .DISCUSSION...Conditions are mostly dry and clear across the area, with the exception of a weak thunderstorm and showers near Mountain Home-Twin Falls as of 8:30pm. These storms will begin to dissipate as the sun goes down around 9 pm. Temperatures are warm, with many locations in the Treasure Valley reaching at least 75F. Clear skies will allow for cold temperatures overnight, with warm and dry conditions expected each day through the weekend. Forecast appears on track, so no updates are necessary. && .AVIATION...VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms ending by 04Z in the Lower Snake River Plain. Sfc winds: variable less than 8 kt, except E 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt near KJER/KTWF. Winds at 10k ft MSL: NE 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR with a few afternoon clouds near higher terrain. Sfc winds: W 5-8 kt becoming SE 5-7 kt by Fri./06Z. .WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. High pressure dominating the region with dry conditions and surface winds 5-15 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Weak northeasterly winds will persist over southwest Idaho into the evening. Radar imagery at 1 PM MDT reveals showers over south- central Idaho moving east-southeast towards the Western Magic Valley. There`s sufficient instability to trigger a few thunderstorms this afternoon in the Western Magic Valley and Southern Twin Falls County. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected, though cumulus clouds may form over higher terrain. Showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to taper off by sunset as an upper-level ridge extends over the region. While much of the area will be under the ridge through Saturday, easterly winds will persist along the Idaho/Nevada border due to the influence of the four corners low pressure system. This setup will keep the warmest temperatures and the axis of the upper ridge to the west of the Cascade Mountains. Nonetheless, temperatures are anticipated to climb 5-7 degrees above normal on Friday, with highs reaching the low 80s in the valley by Saturday. LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Excellent agreement among both the deterministic and ensemble model runs that upper level ridging will dominate the forecast through mid week next week. There are hints of a weak disturbance working over the top of the ridge Mon/Tue, however precipitation chances will be limited (<10%). There is a high likelihood (close to 100%) that lower valley areas will see temperatures above 80 degrees on Sunday, with mid 70s expected for much of the week. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...SA AVIATION.....SA SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....MC