Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
402 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Best forcing has moved mostly north of the CWA with a surface low
overhead and trailing cold front set back to the west, though the
surface pattern is somewhat disorganized due to remnants of
convection. We will find this front slowly move across the area
today, with cooler temperatures in its wake, though convective
debris overhead under weak steering flow will mean temperatures will
be tricky to forecast out ahead of the front. This front will be the
focus for more convection today, though the southwest flow shortwave
next headed into the area will mainly go through FSD CWA.  We will
only see a few hundred j/kg MLCAPE and warmer mid level
temperatures, along with convective debris affecting insolation,
though there is a little stronger shear in this environment.
Generally though, it doesn`t appear that today will feature much
more than scattered weak convection south of the front and drying
conditions in its wake.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

An area of low pressure will meander over the central plains this
weekend. Showers could have a sharper northern limit than what is
currently portrayed in the forecast as high pressure builds in from
the north and drags in some much drier air.

Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms return next week as
a west coast trough ejects shortwave energy into the northern
plains. Low level moisture will surge back into the region on return
flow behind the sfc high. Another weak low will move off the Rockies
by Thursday helping to focus some of the available energy resulting
from the upper trough in the northern high plains.

Cooler temperatures in the 60s over the weekend under the Canadian
high will trend up through the work week into the upper 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will affect mainly the western half of the
CWA overnight. Some of the storms may produce gusty winds.
Additional precipitation may affect parts of the area on Friday.
For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail, but MVFR vsbys are
possible with the precipitation, and MVFR cigs may settle in over
the west for a time late tonight into Friday morning.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
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