


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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179 FXUS63 KABR 071752 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1252 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase to 50-80 percent later this morning into the afternoon. Some storms could be severe and capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather across parts of central and northeast South Dakota. - Additional chances for thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather Thursday night into Friday. - Seasonal temperatures are expected during the 7 day forecast, with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday, when high temperatures could bump back up into the low to mid 90s throughout and west of the James River valley. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFS. UPDATE Issued at 1001 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Showers and thunderstorms have developed and are ongoing already at mid morning. A couple of areas to track...on the north side along and north of the ND/SD is an area of scattered convection and to the south across central SD around the Gettysburg/Pierre area. Some of the stronger cells are producing locally heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds. Anticipate continued development through midday with severe storms possible through the afternoon. SPC his upgraded our severe weather outlook for today to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) from south central SD stretching northeast into the James Valley and points east into far west central MN. The only area of exception is north central sections of SD where a Marginal (level 1 of 5) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) remains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 As of 4 AM CDT, there are a few pockets of showers over north central SD. While these showers are moving east, they tend to dissipate before they get east of the Missouri River. However, there could still be showers over north central SD through the early morning. An upper-level shortwave is forecast to move over SD and ND today, which provides support to a cold front. This cold front looks to arrive in north central SD around mid morning and move towards the southeast through central and north eastern SD during the morning into the afternoon. There is ample moisture in front of this boundary as a tongue of moisture moves over SD this morning. Models also show ample instability in front of this boundary and along it, with forecast values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, though the location of the highest values differs in the models. With abundant moisture and instability as well as the front as a source of lift, showers and storms will develop along the boundary. The models also vary the location of the strongest bulk shear, with some having values of 30- 40kts in front of the boundary and others having those values behind the boundary. If storms are able to develop and interact with these areas of shear, they could become supercellular, otherwise they will likely stay multicellular. Model hodographs show storms moving towards the southeast, which will likely keep these storms along or slightly ahead of the boundary as it moves. This could cause the storms to become linear in nature, which would increase the threat for severe and damaging wind gusts. The SPC has a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather over this CWA, with the main threats being large hail and damaging wind gusts. The frontal boundary looks to move out during the late afternoon into the early evening, taking the chances for rain and storms with it. A small upper-level ridge starts to move over SD Tuesday and Wednesday, with surface high pressure setting up over central and eastern SD through Wednesday. Warm, dry mid-level air is advected into SD, which will help temperatures to warm up again. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday, with heat indices during these days having the potential to get into the upper 90s and potentially over 100. During this time, an upper-level trough is moving southeast from Alberta into MT and then over ND/SD late Thursday and Friday. With mid-level moisture looking to move into the state again as well as a surface low developing in ND, this could lead to shower and storm development Thursday night into Friday. SPC has a day 5 15% outlook for severe weather over central SD during this time, so this will be something to watch in the upcoming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move eastward across parts of central and northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. So far, the only terminals that have seen activity today has been KPIR/KMBG. That will change going through the afternoon hours as KABR/KATY will be impacted by storms. Have included VCTS mention at these TAF sites through the afternoon with TEMPO groups targeting more impactful time frames. MVFR cigs will be possible during SHRA`s/TSRA`s with vsby`s down potentially down to MVFR/IFR at times. Farther west, KPIR/KMBG with see VCTS activity through mid afternoon with TEMPO groups for TSRA`s. This activity should be diminishing and coming to an end by the late afternoon hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vipond DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...Vipond