Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 162329 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
629 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

The short term features the continued influence of snow pack on
temperatures across eastern South Dakota, as lows may dip into the
teens here as opposed to the mid 20s elsewhere. Light winds across
eastern South Dakota help maximize cooling as well. On the contrary,
good mixing will allow breezy conditions to persist across and west
of the Missouri River through the evening into Tuesday morning. By
Tuesday late morning and afternoon, light WAA precipitation is
possible across central South Dakota Tuesday afternoon...though
confidence it too low at this time to include in the forecast due
to dry low level air. The main system moves in then Tuesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

The latest models were now trending upward with the qpf and
resultant snowfall for the next digging short wave trough into our
region for Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is good agreement with
rain moving in from the west and changing over to snow. Depending on
the track of this system and when it closes off, more snowfall could
occur. Lowered highs on Wednesday with the expected precipitation
and cloud cover. Snowfall amounts increased from the previous
forecast by 1 to 2 inches with total amounts ranging from 1 inch far
west in the cwa to 4 to 5 inches southeast in the cwa in the
Watertown, Clark, Webster, and Clear Lake areas. The snowfall leaves
the east on Wednesday evening with a dry period at least through
Thursday evening. The models continue to show another upper level
low pressure area moving in from the west for Thursday night through
Friday night. The models have been trending farther south with this
system with lower pops for our region. The best chances look to be
along the Missouri river and west with this system and looking to be
more rain than snow. Otherwise, the rest of the period looks dry
from Saturday into Monday as the models show our region in upper
level westerly flow. Also, temperatures will be rising up to near
normal for Sunday into Monday with highs mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Other than some sub-VFR fog potential tonight at KATY and some
sub-VFR cigs in light rain at KPIR Tuesday late afternoon, VFR
conditions are expected to persist.

Surface high pressure hanging out over Minnesota down into Iowa
will keep winds light and variable overnight under a clear sky
across far eastern South Dakota, so KATY could see some fog or low
stratus develop as a result. Further west, as a lee-of-the-
Rockies surface low pressure trof continues to deepen, the
pressure gradient over the Missouri River valley region will
tighten up, which should keep southeasterly breezes going
overnight into Tuesday at KPIR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Lueck
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Dorn



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