Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 132347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Surface high pressure over the region will build southeast tonight
while another Canadian surface high pressure area begins to push in
from the north on Wednesday. A leading edge cool front will push
into the region on Wednesday with winds becoming northeast through
the day. Winds will be light tonight with some fog possible in
the James Valley. Otherwise, skies will be sunny on Wednesday with
warmer conditions with better mixing northeast winds. The snow
cover will continue to diminish on Wednesday with highs mainly in
the mid to upper 30s with 40s to possibly lower 50s along and
west of the Missouri River.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Two significant systems continue to be on track to affect mainly the
Central Plains for Friday into Friday night and again Sunday
afternoon into Monday. There is better agreement now with the first
system`s track and timing. A couple Canadian surface high pressure
areas will be bringing a continued fetch of drier and cooler air to
the region through the entire long term into Tuesday. The models now
show the first surface low pressure area moving across southern
Nebraska/northern Kansas Thursday night through Friday night. The
models only show some qpf making it northward into our cwa mainly
from Pierre and south Friday into Friday night. The deep and dry
east and northeast winds will probably win out for much of our cwa.
The next model runs may show the qpf even farther south and maybe
out of our area.

Otherwise, surface high pressure will hold steady for most of the
region for Saturday into Sunday morning before the next surface low
pressure area moves into the Central Plains. The latest models
continue to disagree on how far north to spread the precipitation,
mainly light snow, into our region Sunday afternoon into Monday. The
EC and Canadian now agree with keeping much of the precipitation
south of our CWA while the GFS was farther north affecting our area.
At this time, the consensus pops are still good for our cwa for
Sunday afternoon and Monday. Tuesday looks dry at this time as the
system moves away and high pressure builds in.

With Canadian air dominating the long term along with some snow
cover yet, high temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 30s
and lower 40s from Thursday through Tuesday which is near to 10
degrees below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period.




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