Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261904
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
204 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

For the early afternoon update we bumped up temperatures and winds
just a little. However, this has resulted in critical fire weather
conditions expanding farther eastward into north central ND.
Therefore we have extended the RFW east through Bottineau and
McHenry counties. Updated RFW product has been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 935 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Dew points have been decreased a bit this afternoon using a blend
of the HRRRExperimental and the official forecast. This yielded
minimum relative humidities that are more reasonable, especially
based on yesterday when observed relative humidities were much
lower than what model guidance suggested, even with all the thick
cloud cover around. With plenty of sunshine through the day today
and gusty northwest winds sustained around 20-20 mph with gusts
to 35 mph combined with low relative humidities around 20 percent,
a Red Flag Warning has been issued for most of northwest North
Dakota from 18z to 00z today.

UPDATE Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Latest obs were blended into the forecast; no other changes were
made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Fairly quiet weather through the short term.

Slightly cooler today behind the frontal passage with highs in the
lower/upper 60s. A few fair-weather cumulus are possible with day
time heating but mostly sunny skies are expected as ridging begins
building in from the west. West/northwest winds will be breezy. The
strongest winds are expected in the north with gusts around 35 mph.
The mid-afternoon hours will bring a brief period of minimum RH
values in the lower 20s in northern and central areas. Fire weather
concerns are low at this time.

Tonight the next surface cold front scoots southward into southern
Canada, positioning for a southward push across the state through
Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

The extended kicks off with dry weather and mostly clear skies, as a
strong ridge sits over the Northern Plains. This will lead to
seasonal warmth for the weekend, with temperatures peaking on Sunday
to near 80 degrees in some locations. As the ridge axis moves over
North Dakota breezy southerly winds are also forecast for the
weekend.

Chances for rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Sunday
night into Thursday, as an upper level low swings through North
Dakota bringing along sufficient moisture/lift/instability.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Strong
northwest winds will diminish this evening. Winds will pick up
again on Friday but will not be as strong, and will shift to a
more northerly direction.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>004-009>012-017-018-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



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