281
FXUS63 KFGF 120303
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1003 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather is expected today and again Sunday
  across much of the region as RH values fall into the 20 to
  30 percent range along with wind gusts up to 30 mph.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
  early evening for portions of far northeast ND and northwest
  Minnesota. A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts to
  60 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Showers continues across the north with a weak frontal passage.
Deep inverted v soundings continue to prevent much of anything
from reaching the surface and thus have continued to trim pops
back. Clouds will clear for most overnight with what appears to
be Alberta wildfire smoke moving in behind.. sigh.

UPDATE
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Peak wind gusts so far in the forecast area in the mid 40s with
minimal evidence of rain reaching the ground thus far. Kept
pops under 50 to reflect the lower chances for rain to reach
the ground rather than evaporate despite numerous echos across
NW Minnesota. These scattered showers should persist through the
next few hours along and ahead of a front sweeping into north
central North Dakota currently.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The 7 day pattern will feature a tendency towards split flow,
with progressive flow across the Northern Plains. Within this flow
fast moving mid level shortwaves will bring periodic
shower/thunderstorm chances to the region, along with variable
high/low temperatures (within a standard deviation of seasonal
normals). At this point, there is not a signal in ensemble based
machine learning or model climatology for severe thunderstorms or
excessive rainfall next week.

Regarding showers/storms this afternoon-evening:

A mid level wave moving to the north this evening/tonight will push
a cold front into the region, and forcing will help lead to widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening
mainly in northwest MN (some signal farther west in CAMs). The air
mass is very dry, but there is some elevated CAPE forecast to
increase with steep lapse rates later this afternoon/early evening.
We ultimately may see a lot of activity on radar with minimal
precipitation reaching the surface (dry thunderstorm type activity).
Inverted-V type soundings and DCAPE near 1000 J/KG in our north may
support a few severe wind gusts to 60 mph.

Regarding fire weather today and Sunday:

Deep mixing and a slower recovery in BL Tds from the west has led to
RH values in the upper teens to 25% range across the Red River
Valley and locations east. Gusts 25-30 mph have occasionally be
reported, but the window for 3hr RFW criteria hasnsn`t be there and
near critical is expected through the early evening. For Sunday, the
post frontal air mass should bring lower Tds in (along with cooler
temps) but adjusting for biases, RH values are likely to once again
drop to the 20-25% range. North or northeast winds will tend to
favor higher gusts in the Red River VAlley with higher winds aloft
decreasing by the afternoon north to south. The result should be
near critical fire weather conditions again, with a 40% chance for
critical fire weather conditions in the northern Red River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR at all sites with a few showers possible through the evening
at DVL, GFK, TVF, BJI. Gusts have remained but should die off as
the front sweeps through overnight. Winds northerly Sunday with
gusts as high as the mid 20s though more common low 20s. SCT to
BKN at 100 to 200 as these showers move through this evening.
Lightning possible at northern sites but confidence is low in
when/where.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT