167
FXUS63 KMPX 190002
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
702 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Moderate to heavy snow continues across far southern Minnesota
late this afternoon. The potent low pressure center clearly
evident on satellite over northern Iowa is heading to the east
which should put an end to the snow from west to east late this
afternoon. Pushed up the timing of the end of the headlines to 7
PM from 1 AM. We have received a few reports of 6 to 8 inches
along I-90 today, so when everything is all said and done there
could be some locations that exceed 10 to 12 inches.

Skies will clear quickly this evening with clear skies expected
areawide by late tonight. Light winds and temperatures falling
into the low 20s could result in some fog overnight, but it
appears too patchy for inclusion in the forecast at the moment.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

The long term will finally trend considerably warmer and we will
see our first above normal temperatures of the season by Monday
(even if by only a few degrees). Surface ridging will be in place
Friday through Sunday and a large low pressure system over the
southern Rockies will maintain a southerly track and bring us
nothing but some high clouds. The only chance for precipitation
beyond today will come early next week, but model consistency is
quite poor. GFS is quickest bring it in Monday night. The ECMWF is
slower by about 12 hours, and the GEM is slower by another 12
hours. However, what they do have in common is showing the warmest
day being Monday. Temps aloft will continue warming until the cold
front passes through sometime early next week. Snow will impact
temps into the weekend, but not expecting meaningful snow pack to
stick around through Sunday. With 925 mb temperatures in the +12
to +14C range Monday afternoon, we have a good chance at hitting
at least the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Snow is tapering off in Southern MN as the low pressure system
progresses eastward. Thus, MKT should continue to see an
improvement in ceilings and visibility tonight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will persist across the coverage area with cirrus
continuing through much of Thursday. Winds will become lighter,
and transition from northeasterly to predominately northwesterly
overnight. Surface high pressure overhead will keep winds light on
Thursday.

KMSP...The main concern will be LLWS late tonight through early
Thursday as winds near the surface will be light and winds near
2000ft will be near 35ts out of the east-northeast. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected to continue

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind S near 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind SE near 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind S around 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ082>085.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...AMK