138
FXUS63 KMPX 240549
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1249 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern returns midweek, with the potential for
  multiple rounds of training thunderstorms. The setup aims to
  produce several inches of rainfall by the end of the work
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Today/Tonight...What a difference 24-hours can make!
Temperatures have dropped to much more comfortable values
following the passage of a cold front. Latest analysis places
the front from roughly Dunn (WI) southwest to Freeborn county,
which serves as a dividing line for sensible weather this
afternoon. West of the front, temperatures are in the 70s, which
is roughly 20 degrees cooler than this time yesterday across
western MN. Conversely, temperatures have warmed into the 80s
east of the front across western WI. Robust convection has
developed east into WFO La Crosse`s coverage area. We cannot
rule out an isolated shower or storm east of the front in
western WI, however the greater potential for severe weather
will be to the southeast across central/southern WI and into IA
for the remainder of the day.

Heavy Rain this Week...The aforementioned cold front is forecast
to stall out across central IA tomorrow, before gradually
lifting northward towards the IA/MN border heading into the
middle of the week. Broad southwesterly zonal flow will setup
aloft across the northern CONUS, blocked by a ~590s dm ridge
over the Ohio Valley. This scenario will set the stage for
multiple waves to translate across the flow, igniting
precipitation chances along the surface boundary. Return flow
west of the Ohio Valley surface high and the southwesterly
upper-level flow will work in tandem to advect ample Gulf &
Pacific moisture into the Upper Midwest. This is reflected in
the model guidance which illustrates ~3 sigma PWAT anomaly
across the region Wednesday & Thursday. This anomaly translates
to PWATs near/above 2", which would approach daily max territory
for late June per MPX sounding climatology. As previously
discussed, the setup for heavy rain and enhanced rainfall rates
is favorable given the PWATs, skinny-cape profiles, and
sufficient warm-cloud layer depth depicted on forecast
soundings. Naturally this begs the question, "How much rainfall
and when?"

From a generalized sense, rain chances aim to stay out of the
forecast until late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. The
nocturnal low-level jet will strengthen across the Great Plains
Tuesday night, which will effectively work to push the boundary
northward across IA and kick-off widespread rain chances across
southern MN heading into Wednesday morning. From that point
onward, transient shortwaves within the mid to upper flow will
serve as focal points for additional convection, as well as the
orientation of the low-level jet Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. WPC`s latest rainfall forecast displays between 2-4" of
rain across southern MN, with 1-3" across central MN. Given
this setup, localized 5"+ amounts are possible and perhaps
likely, though the exact corridors are challenging to narrow
down a few days out given run to run shifts in the position of
the boundary, along with possible training convection. With all
of this in mind, we feel confident saying that southern MN is
currently more greatly favored for the heaviest rainfall than
central MN and that several (3"+) inches of rain are possible
between Tuesday night to Thursday night for a large portion of
the area. Flash flood concerns are possible during the rainfall,
followed by river flooding in the days after. WPC has continued
to place a large Slight Risk ERO across southern MN Wednesday,
shifting the Slight Risk slightly across southeast MN/much of WI
on Thursday. Temperatures will stick in the 70s Wednesday &
Thursday given the cloud cover/rainfall.

Looking Ahead to Next Weekend...Medium to long range guidance
suggests that the boundary will lift north Friday. Height rises
aloft will open the door for a warmer weekend, with latest highs
from the NBM climbing from the 80s on Friday to near 90 on
Saturday. Global guidance slides a cold front through the region
following the warm up, which may become a focus for
thunderstorms. ML guidance has introduced elevated severe
weather probabilities across the area Saturday into Sunday. Of
course, we`ll have more to come as the forecast advances forward
this week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR conditions with mainly passing high clouds throughout this
duration. Winds will be the main variant, particularly wind
directions. After going light/variable overnight, winds will
gradually veer from N to E through tonight, with speeds under
10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...SHRA/MVFR. Chc TSRA. Wind E 5-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind VRB 5 kts.
SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. MVFR/SHRA. Winds SSW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...JPC