Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 180329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1029 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The next 36 hours will be dry but should see increasing clouds on
Sunday. Meanwhile today expect plenty of sun with afternoon highs in
the mid 40s to near 50 with light and variable winds.

Early afternoon satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies across
Minnesota and Wisconsin, with clouds to the west across the Dakotas.
Surface obs showed light winds with broad anticyclonic flow
associated with surface high pressure. Over the next 24 hours
southerly flow will develop and forecast soundings show low level
clouds developing. The moisture may be overdone, but at this point
have mostly cloudy skies on Sunday. No precipitation is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

On Monday a shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest and
spread some rain/snow across the Dakotas into
western/central/southern Minnesota into southern Wisconsin. This
wave enters and area of upper level confluence and gets sheared out,
so no significant accumulation is expected and the potential for a
higher end event is very, very low.

The middle of the week will be dry, but an Upper Level trough will
carve out across the west with southwest flow developing over the
central CONUS. A surface low pressure will develop on the across the
High Plains, with the warm front lifting over the Upper Midwest.
The GFS arrives faster than the EC/GEM. The EC holds onto the
precipitation longer.

As of now this looks like a strong system that will have issues with
rain/snow. No sense trying to split hairs this far out, but know
that could a widespread inch of QPF that could either fall as rain
or snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Only concern are clouds encroaching from the west. We have a very
dry airmass in place, so continued to slow play the arrival of
MVFR cigs, especially going into eastern MN and WI, where we have
kept cigs VFR. Continued to lean toward the more optimistic
LAV/LAMP for cigs, though we could certainly see MVFR cigs make it
as far east as MSP by the afternoon. Virtually no wind expected
on Sunday, but we will slowly establish northeast winds again
Sunday night.

KMSP...Still a lot of uncertainty with when we will see MVFR cigs,
with it still looking like it could be as early as 17z Sunday or
as late as 12z Monday. Given how dry our initial airmass is, have
continued to favor the VFR route until we have higher confidence
in how far east the MVFR cigs will be able to make it.

MON...MVFR cigs likely. Wind NE 10 kts.
TUE...MVFR cigs likely. Chc -SN. Wind E 5 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. MVFR cigs possible. Wind E 5 kts.




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