Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 242023
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
323 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The forecast concern near term is timing and areal coverage of any
convection.

Latest mesoscale analysis shows about 1000-2000 J/kg MLcape over
the cwa, with the axis pointed to the southwest. Convective
temperature(mid 80s) has been reached and we have widely
scattered/isolated convection firing off to the southwest and
northeast, Main moist axis remains over MN so expect convective
potential to remain overnight. Will continue the higher end
chance PoPs over the CWA, but dont feel comfortable of
highlighting a large area of likely PoPs at this time. Certainly
looks like the better potential will develop later
tonight/overnight with the incoming upper trough and surface
boundary. With limited deep layer shear, severe potential should
remain minimal - multicell clusters possible producing some hail
and gusty winds mainly this evening.

Said boundary is rather weak and will advance into eastern MN
Friday morning. Any significant redevelopment should remain
mainly east of I35 across eastern MN and into west central WI Late
Friday morning and afternoon. Still looking for warm and humid
conditions to the east, becoming a less humid over the west with
weak fropa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The remainder of the weekend looks to be hot with highs expected
to warm through the lower and middle 90s both days. The warmest
looks to be Sunday with some potential upper 90s to the
southwest. We should see plenty of sunshine with both days with
ridging/higher heights over the area. Heat indices max out in the
mid 90s Sunday, providing a real beginning to summer weather. The
models diverge somewhat on any extent of moisture return into
early next week. Timing of the next incoming trough looks to be
affecting the area later Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures
will cool back into the 80s with humidity/dewpoints on the rise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Still retain lower end confidence forecast for timing and overall
coverage of convective potential this period. Does appear the
latest available HIRES solution pick up development over central
MN and moving east into the evening. This likely in connection
with any remaining weak trough for the southwest combined with
greater instability, Expect at least scattered convection mainly
east of KSTC-KMKT this afternoon evening. Could see some
convection move in from the eastern Dakotas early but believe this
will be more isolated. A mixture of VCTS and some tempos
introduced at locations with forecast greater areal coverage.
Surface winds mixing S-SW and gusty into the afternoon ahead of
the front with fropa into western areas Friday morning.

KMSP...
Confidence increasing of at least scattered coverage in the VCNTY
during the evening. This should wane later tonight and shift east
per latest HIRES trends. Gusty S-SW winds ahead of the front
becoming more west Friday afternoon with fropa. Could see
redevelopment Friday morning in the vcnty but timing still
difficult to ascertain at the moment.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI night...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DWE


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