Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 110540
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1140 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022

No significant updates for tonight`s forecast. A 596 dam ridge at
500 mb continues to dominate our weather in terms of heat and
keeping the monsoonal moisture west of our area. GOES-16 water
vapor shows the moisture plume nicely, and it`s mostly over the
Great Basin with a little trapped moisture over the western third
of Colorado. The steering flow in western Colorado is actually
out of the northeast, keeping any showers/storms and moisture
away the rest of the evening and overnight. It will be a
beautiful night across the area with mostly clear skies and
seasonally warm lows expected with mid to upper 60s across the
I-25 urban corridor, low to mid 60s elsewhere across the plains,
and upper 40s to low 50s in the mountain valleys and foothills.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022

With a strong ridge of high pressure overhead, there are just
shallow cumulus on visible satellite this afternoon. An inversion
aloft is too strong for showers and storms to form. The only thing
that`s noteworthy about the weather today is the heat as it`s 88
F in Kremmling and 94 F at DIA at the time of this discussion.

Tonight, there will be relatively warm temperatures as lows will be
in the 60s across the plains. The low temperatures won`t be too far
from record warm lows. Winds will be gusty out of the south across
the plains.

The same ridge of high pressure will be over our CWA on Thursday
with almost no change in strength. This will lead to similar
conditions at the surface on Thursday as we saw today. The only
slight change that will happen is a surface low pressure center
will move towards northern Colorado by the afternoon. The lower
pressure and low level convergence associated with this feature
may provide enough lift to create a few showers and storms in the
mountains mainly to the west of the Continental Divide. Across the
plains, conditions will be quite stable so no rain is expected.

The biggest weather concern on Thursday will be heat. With 700 mb
temperatures warming another degree C, highs will increase another
1 or 2 degrees F. The forecast high at DIA is 98 which would break
the daily record high temperature of 97 which was last set in
2020. Other areas along the I-25 corridor may break their daily
record highs as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Thursday night through Saturday, the large upper ridge of high
pressure will be centered over Eastern Colorado. This pattern will
bring a continuation of hot and dry weather across the plains with
max temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s. There should
be enough moisture combined with daytime heating to produce
isolated to scattered afternoon and evening afternoon and evening
showers and storms in the high country.

On Sunday, models are showing the upper high weakening and slightly
shifting to the southeast. This may result in an increase in
monsoonal moisture over the western half of colorado which may lead
to a better chance for showers and storms in the mountains.
Northeastern Colorado should remain hot and mostly dry with possibly
a few showers and storms drifting out of the high country onto the
adjacent plains.

Early next week, many of the models are showing the upper high
shifting into the southern plains states with a descent plume of
monsoonal moisture flowing into Colorado from the south and
southwest. This pattern should allow for cooler temperatures along
with better precipitation chances across the forecast area. With
increased PW`s and specific humidity, localized heavy rain will be
possible with the storms with the potential for localized flash
flooding especially in and near the burn scars. At this time, the
most active period on the plains looks to be Tuesday afternoon and
evening as an upper level shortwave and associated cold front moves
across Northeastern Colorado.

On Wednesday, models are showing the upper high retrograding
westward over the Four Corners Region as an upper level trough
deepens over the Central and Eastern U.S. This pattern should place
Colorado under the influence of a northwesterly flow aloft which
opens the door to  cold fronts to move across Northeastern
Colorado. This should result in below normal temperatures along
with scattered to numerous showers and storms, most numerous over
the high country south of Interstate 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022

VFR through period with mainly clear skies. Enhanced south to
southeast winds with gusts up to 25kt at DEN/APA, decreasing
after 10z and becoming more southwest. Winds becoming east and
southeast Thursday afternoon. Any thunderstorms over next 24 hours will
be along and west of the Continental Divide.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022

There will be a few isolated thunderstorms on Thursday mainly to
the west of the Continental Divide. These storms will not be very
strong but they will be almost stationary. This will lead to a
limited threat of flash flooding over the East Troublesome burn
area with the other burn areas seeing almost no threat of
flooding.

Moisture will increase over the mountains and foothills this
weekend leading to an elevated threat for flash flooding over the
burn scars. High levels of moisture will remain through the
middle of next week with continued high chances for showers and
thunderstorms along with an elevated risk for flash flooding in
and near the burn scars.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schlatter
SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...jk
AVIATION...Entrekin
HYDROLOGY...Danielson/jk


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