Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 161815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
115 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

VFR conditions with -SHRA continue to KPVW and KCDS this
afternoon. Under the heaviest showers visibilities at both
terminals could briefly go MVFR. Moisture increased has caused
MVFR CIGS at KLBB, though it appears it should lift back to low
VFR in the next few hours. VFR should be the general mode through
the remainder of the afternoon. Tonight is less clear, as both
shower chances and the risk of MVFR conditions may increase. For
now have left low VFR in the TAFS but, this may change as moisture
increases during the evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/

This morning, taking a look at the RAP analysis overlaid upon IR
satellite, we have a few features of interest. The first, which was
a point of great discussion in the office at 2 AM, was a Rex block
located over the Pac-NW. It was debated whether this was a true Rex
or just an Omega block as it wasn`t totally, by definition, located
directly north of its closed low. The final consensus was the
pattern is developing as such that the block will become more "Rexy"-
like in the coming day or two, so we shall call it a Rex block. So,
that leads us to the next feature...the aforementioned closed low.
It is currently meandering over AZ and will do so over the next few
days, being stuck under said Rex. Over the Midwest, a broad trough
was attempting to bring Canadian air into the region, but it appears
to be too shallow (ex. Green Bay currently at 35 with a high today
of 51). Across the south, our old cold front was stretched from the
TX Gulf Coast northeastward to northern Georgia. Central and North
Texas were continuing to be deluged by showers/thunderstorms from
overriding moisture. A high pressure over the central Gulf and FL
was also helping to steer moisture into those areas, providing lift,
and contributing to a worsening flooding problem.

As we drill down to our forecast area, several of the above
mentioned features will come into play. Today, we`ll keep the
northerly winds and cloud cover, though there won`t be much cold air
filtering in. That, and any breaks in the clouds will allow us to be
a bit warmer than yesterday, but don`t put the coats away. Upper 40s
and 50s (and don`t forget those lows as you head out this morning in
the 30s) will still feel cold. A weak cold front will pass through
early on Wednesday, not doing much for temps. It will bring a very
brief drying period to the low and mid-levels, but SW flow aloft and
a quick return to easterly isentropic upglide will serve to return
moisture as if it never left.

Remember our Rex block and cutoff low? During the early hours of
Wednesday, Rex finally begins to break down, releasing the cutoff
low from its clutches. The low will kick out into the Central Plains
by late Friday. Before that, though, we`ll be stuck between the high
to the east and the low to the west, helping to funnel moisture into
the region late on Wednesday. With a shortwave pushing through late
Wednesday into Thursday, rain chances will dramatically increase.
The added lift of the passing, then trough, on Thursday, will make
widespread rain chances likely. As the trough passes the area, the
rain tapers off, and a front overnight Friday, pushed through on the
backside of the trough, will dry us out and bring a great sun`s up
on Saturday. Past this point, models disagree too much on the fate
of another low over SoCal and the progression of a tropical system
in the Pacific, so this is where we will stop for the morning.




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