Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS61 KCLE 132251

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
651 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

An upper level low overhead will pull away to New England on
Wednesday, leaving a cool northwest flow overhead. Another
upper level trough will slide southeast across the area on
Thursday night through Friday followed by high pressure
expanding south out of Canada over the weekend.


Only minor changes have been made to reflect current trends on
radar and with temperatures.

Heavier squalls have been decreasing in coverage but a few of
them will likely drop visibilities below 1/2 mile.

Previous Discussion...
Snow showers this afternoon have become rather cellular with an
upper level low and -39C cold pool at 500mb. More concentrated
area of snow showers south of Route 30 will depart to the south
with time while snow showers enhanced by Lake Huron are
starting to fill back in to the north. Any light accumulation
this afternoon has been brief, followed by some melting. As the
sun sets, snow will accumulate easier. Many of the high
resolution models show numerous snow showers moving across north
central Ohio. Have included a broad accumulation of around an
inch but some higher amounts are likely, and may need to be
refined with updates this evening. Low visibilities are again
expected with snow showers tonight.

Farther east, have upgraded inland Erie County to a Winter Storm
Warning and added the lakeshore to the Winter Weather Advisory.
Some snow showers are expected this evening as the surface
trough swings south, but the steadier snow will occur late
tonight through midday on Wednesday. We are starting off this
afternoon with lots of dry air aloft as is visible on water
vapor imagery. As the upper low pivots south and departs to the
east overnight, wrap around moisture from the east coast system
is pulled westward around the back of the low. Deep moisture
will be in place across Pennsylvania through most of the
afternoon on Wednesday. Not a pure lake effect event as the
thermal profiles over Lake Erie are only marginally supportive
of lake effect snow. Moisture from the lake will no doubt
enhance snowfall totals with favorable large scale lift late
tonight and low level omega lingering through the day on
Wednesday. The orographic component will also be a big factor
with the tightening low level cyclonic flow developing. Snowfall
forecast for inland Erie County has been increased to 6 to 10
inches, with 3 to 7 inches forecast for both Erie lakeshore and
Crawford County. Highest amounts will be focused across the
eastern half of these counties. Northwest winds increasing to 10
to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Wednesday will lead to some
blowing and drifting of snow.

Snow showers will also flare up across the snowbelt in NE Ohio
on Wednesday morning but expected to be sub advisory. Drier air
wraps in from the north and west during the afternoon with snow
showers diminishing. Given the flow off the lake, blended some
of the raw NAM for temperatures tonight which keeps mins a
little warmer. Highs on Wednesday will range from upper 20s in
PA to upper 30s in NW Ohio.


Another cold front will drop SE across the region late Wed night
into Thu to reinforce the below normal cold air thru Fri. Lake
effect snow showers will likely occur Wed night into Fri until
tapering off by late Fri or Fri night as high pressure moves over
the lake. Accumulations should remain light, mostly an inch or less
for any 12 hour period.

The high over the area will weaken on Sat to allow a weak low to
drift up the Oh valley. The models differ on whether there will be
enough moisture returning to the area for any precip in the south so
will only have a slight chc pop at most.


Saturday night through Monday look to be dry as we are sandwiched
between split flow. An area of low pressure will move east across
the Tennessee Valley Saturday night before a short-wave ridge moves
over the Lower Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night. Another low
will move across the Tennessee Valley Monday night into Tuesday.
There is a lot of uncertainty with how strong this low will be and
how far north it will track, but if it tracks far enough north it
would bring the chance for some rain/snow showers to the area.

Temperatures through the long term period look to be near or
slightly below seasonal averages.


Convective snow showers will continue to move across the area
through around 02Z then should decrease in coverage. MVFR/IFR
conditions will occur with the snow showers. WE will then
transition to a lake effect snow event with the main area of
snow located across NE OH into NW PA. Most of NE OHIO and NW PA
will see MVFR/IFR conditions overnight. KCLE and KMFD will see
the greatest amount of snow through 06Z or so then watch it
shift up the lakeshore toward KERI and inland NW PA.

Northwesterly winds area expected into Wednesday. Wind speeds
generally in the 15 to 20 knot range with a few gusts on
Wednesday in the 25 to 30 knot range.

.Outlook...Periods of non-VFR through Wednesday evening in snow
showers, especially northeast OH and northwest PA. Non-VFR may
linger into Thursday at KERI.


Marginal SCA conditions will probably persist most of the time into
Fri with mainly a NW to West wind of 15 to 25 knots. High pressure
finally moves over the lake to calm the winds Fri night into Sat
with relatively light winds continuing on Sunday.


PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ001-
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ147>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>146.


LONG TERM...Mottice
MARINE...Adams is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.