Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 222220
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
620 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across NW OH will push SE of the forecast area this
evening.   High pressure will build south across the Central Great
Lakes Wednesday then drift east and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast
Friday.  Expect dry conditions with a gradual warming trend into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Severe thunderstorm watch for the local area has been
discontinued as thunderstorms continue to move east and south.
Pulled back on the precipitation chances as well. A few renegade
showers remain and will account for that with a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms this evening. Otherwise, no other
major changes.

Previous Discussion...

Severe thunderstorm watch 115 is in effect until 9PM. Cold
front near a Port Clinton to Findlay line. Capes ahead of the
front between 1500-200 j/kg with 30 knots of shear. Convection
will push SE of the forecast area toward 00z and the front will
push south of the forecast area by midnight local. Overnight
high pressure will gradually build into the Central Great lakes
ushering in dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will dominate the region Thursday into early Friday.
The high will shift east of the are on Friday with an increase in
low level moisture into Saturday. An upper level trough will be
approaching on Saturday so chances of thunderstorms will be on the
increase.

Temperatures will be above seasonal averages through the short term
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level trough will cross the region Saturday night with a
weak front sagging into the area. This frontal boundary will likely
be the focus for thunderstorms on Sunday. Another weakening cold
front will move toward the region Monday night into Tuesday with
chances of thunder remaining in the forecast.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Cold front just SE of Tol area with broken line of showers
developing ahead of it, from Lake Erie SW into Central IN. It will
become the focus of convection later this afternoon. Convection
should push SE of forecast area by 00z. Stratus deck MVFR with
areas of IFR will develop behind the front overnight. Skies
gradually scatter out from the NW late tonight as high pressure
builds over the Great Lakes. High pressure will remain over the
forecast area into the weekend.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front currently crossing the lake and will be south of it by
early evening. High pressure will then build into the region and
persist into early Friday. Southwesterly winds on Wednesday may
build waves to 2 to 4 feet for a brief period from Conneaut to
Ripley. Winds will become light and variable Wednesday night into
early Friday. Southwesterly winds increase on on Friday and continue
into Saturday. At this time it does not appear waves will build
enough to warrant a small craft advisory.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Mullen


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