Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 152017
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
417 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring periods of showers tonight into Sunday.
The boundary will settle south of the region briefly Sunday
night and Monday, as weak high pressure may bring a mainly dry
start to the work week, as unsettled weather returns Monday
night through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Clouds spreading east steadily and some isolated showers are in
the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. Areas seeing
sun late this afternoon, in eastern NY and western New England,
will cloud up through this evening. Showers will then spread
across the region through this evening and into western New
England around midnight through the early morning.

There is a well defined upper impulse in the midwest and OH
Valley but most of the instability and convection is building
due east and just south of our region. There is a decent
boundary layer thermal gradient providing good low level forcing
but the thermal gradient relaxes a bit as the upper energy
tracks into our region. Northern stream energy is sinking
slowly south out of Canada with a band of moisture and weak cold
advection which will also act to suppress the surface based
instability. So, not including thunder through Sunday morning
until the center of the upper energy tracks through the eastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

The higher surface dew points should also be suppressed south of
our region through the night. So, as the showers increase in
coverage and intensity, temperatures should fall to wet bulb
temperatures. Lows tonight in the 50s to lower 60s. Some of the
higher surface dew points could surge north by around daybreak
as the center of the upper energy gets closer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The center of the upper energy should track south of the Mohawk
Valley and into the Berkshires with an area of showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly from the Mohawk Valley to Capital
Region to southern VT and points south, with more scattered
shower activity to the north. The showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to exit eastern NY during the
afternoon and exit western New England by early evening.

The band of moisture along the leading edge of the weak cold
advection sinking south out of Canada will sink to the eastern
Catskills, mid Hudson valley and NW CT by Sunday evening and
low level jet energy will exit east as well as boundary layer
flow shifts to light west and northwest. The extensive clouds
and showers along with the weakening boundary layer flow through
the day Sunday will result in temperatures reaching around 70
with a few lower 70s possible in areas that may see a few breaks
in the clouds well north and west but cooler in higher terrain.

Sunday night through Tuesday, there are questions about how
much clearing we can get in our region. The boundary layer flow
is so light and low level moisture will be so slow to get
scoured out, low clouds may linger more than sources of guidance
suggest. We do have the highest sun angle of the year and there
should be some weak subsidence to the north of the diffuse low
level thermal and moisture gradient over southern areas. How far
south does the clear and cool weather currently in Michigan get
and how far into our region? Indicating intervals of clouds and
sun Monday and Tuesday with the best chance at some more
prolonged sun in northern areas.

Temperatures will be tricky as nighttime lows in northern areas
with any clearing will be in the 40s to around 50 but how far
south the clearing will get is in question. Could the clearing
get to maybe to the Capital Region, southern VT and Berkshires?
Lows in the upper 50s where clouds linger Sunday night.

The timing of the next upper energy and enhancing of the low
level forcing over southern areas looks timed to be later Monday
night and Tuesday. There is somewhat of a consensus that the
best coverage of scattered showers would be from the eastern
Catskills through mid Hudson Valley to NW CT as the low level
west/east oriented thermal gradient and west boundary layer flow
also implies the best coverage of showers to the south not being
able to build much to the north. Highs Monday in the 70s with
near 80 in areas that could see the most sun.

Still, there are questions about coverage of clouds with the
continued very light west flow from the surface through the
boundary layer and lingering moisture between the surface and
boundary layer. Once again, the strong June sun should help with
some breaks in the clouds, with more sun to the north and less
sun to the south. So, indicating just isolated to scattered
showers Tuesday with the best coverage in southern areas, in the
afternoon. Highs Tuesday in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Active pattern continues through much of the long term period,
although timing of individual shortwaves within anomalously fast
zonal flow will remain uncertain until these systems can become
better resolved with time.

Model consensus seems to be focusing best chances for rain for
Thursday-early Friday, with a wave approaching from the Ohio Valley
along a nearly stationary frontal boundary. Will include high chance
to likely PoPs during this time period accordingly. Locally heavy
rain could occur during this time, depending on the exact track of
the actual main impulse and location of frontal system.

Outside of this period, more generic slight chance to chance PoPs
for Tuesday night through Wednesday night, greatest for southern
areas which should be proximate to stationary frontal boundary
and any weaker waves that track along it.

There could be some better drying behind the Thursday-early Friday
wave, before additional upstream energy triggers more shower threats
later Saturday or Saturday night.

As for temperatures, generally averaging close to or slightly below
seasonal levels for mid/late June, although daytime highs could be
considerably below normal should steady widespread rain occur on any
day (such as Thursday). Expect highs mainly in the 70s, perhaps some
upper 70s in valley areas Wednesday and again Saturday, with 60s and
lower 70s for Thursday-Friday, although could be even cooler.
Overnight lows mainly in the 50s to lower 60s, although could be in
the upper 40s Friday night across the SW Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon with overcast
skies by evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Clouds
will lower tonight with MVFR developing as showers move in.
The front will be slow to press southward across the area
as the flow aloft parallels the boundary. In addition, a short
wave and associated surface low will move eastward along the
boundary bringing widespread showers to the area. The short wave
and low are expected to cross the southern part of the area
during the day Sunday with IFR conditions developing by early
Sunday morning.

Breezy southerly winds will continue this afternoon into the
evening. Winds will decrease overnight as the cold front moves
across the local area.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will bring periods of showers tonight into Sunday.
The boundary will settle south of the region briefly Sunday
night and Monday, as weak high pressure may bring a mainly dry
start to the work week, as unsettled weather returns Monday
night through the rest of the week.

RH values will be above 50 percent through Monday with rain
expected tonight and Sunday.

Winds will be south at 15 mph or less through Sunday. Winds
shift to north and northwest at less than 15 mph Sunday night
and continue through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological issues are expected in the Albany
Hydro Service Area into the mid week.

Periods of rain are expected associated with the slow moving
cold front tonight into Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible Sunday mainly in the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT. Total rainfall looks to range from a third
of an inch to a little over an inch in some locations,
especially south and east of the Capital Region.

The front settles south Sunday night with a brief period of dry
weather returning for most of Monday. Another disturbance moving
along the front will bring showers back into the region Monday
night into the mid week, but rainfall amounts are expected to be
on the light side.

Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


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