Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 072041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
341 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will bring a mix of precipitation into this
evening before gradually tapering off early Wednesday morning.
High pressure will bring drier and blustery weather for the
remainder of Wednesday. The next system arrives on Thursday with
mainly rainfall, through precipitation could start out as a
wintry mix, including freezing rain, mainly for the higher
elevations.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for western
Massachusetts and southern Vermont from 7PM tonight through 1AM
Wednesday morning.

An upper level shortwave and surface frontal system are
approaching from the west. Clouds continue to increase and
thicken across the area. Temperatures are in the 30s to around
40, but dewpoints remain in the teens. A 18z upper air sounding
launched by the UAlbany Mesonet team shows a warm nose aloft and
pocket of below freezing air just above the surface but plenty
of dry air below 500 hPa. The sounding also shows a wet- bulb
profile of the column completely below freezing should it do so.

This sounding verifies that a wide variety of precipitation is
expected across the region this evening into tonight and will be
dependent on the evolution of thermal profiles once wet-bulb
processes take shape. A band of precipitation will soon begin
across the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley and will continue to
shift eastward through this evening. Some of the initial
precipitation will be lost to moisten up the low levels of the
atmosphere.

We still expect all types of precipitation including snow,
sleet, freezing rain and plain rain. The best snow/wintry mix
chances are across areas north of I-90. Freezing rain chances
will be favored across the higher elevations, southern Vermont
and western Massachusetts and possibly even the Lake
George/Saratoga region. Elsewhere, precipitation may be mainly
in the form of rain or mixed rain and sleet. Overall QPF or
liquid equivalent precipitation will be minimal with this
system of a quarter of an inch or less. Snow/sleet
accumulations will be mainly an inch or less with only a light
glaze of ice.

Winter Weather Advisories remain for southern Vermont and
western Massachusetts. Any other areas of mixed precipitation
will likely be addressed with Special Weather Statements this
evening.

Precipitation will last 1-2 hours in most areas before departing
to the east. Many areas will begin to dry out overnight with the
exception of the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and upslope areas of
southern Vermont, where some lingering light rain/snow showers
or drizzle/patchy drizzle are possible into early Wednesday
morning as moist, westerly flow resumes off the lakes.

Lows tonight will remain elevated in the mid-20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure will gradually
build into the region on Wednesday which will bring an end to
any lingering light precipitation. Clouds should gradually break
for some afternoon sunshine in most areas. It will become
breezy with wind gusts 20 to 30 mph with the Mohawk Valley,
Capital District and Berkshires favored for the strongest gusts.
Highs will be mainly in the 30s and 40s with some portions of
the Adirondacks and southern Greens stuck in the upper 20s.

Our next system arrives on Thursday as an upper-level and
surface low lift north to northeastward across the Upper Great
Lakes. High pressure shifts to the east as we are positioned on
the warmer side of this system. Lift along a northward
progressing warm front will bring widespread precipitation to
the region. Temperatures in most areas will be above freezing
which will lead to plain rain. However, some sheltered areas and
higher elevations may be at or below freezing at the onset for
a period of snow, sleet or freezing rain with freezing rain the
more dominant frozen precipitation type expected. High
temperatures will occur late in the day or into the evening in
the 30s and 40s. The system`s dry slot moves into the region
Thursday night which should lead to precipitation gradually
tapering off or decreasing in coverage and intensity. We remain
in the warm sector of this system Thursday night with
temperatures remaining in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At this point, the long term period looks to remain warmer than
normal with a low probability of any significant precipitation.
Quasi-zonal northern stream jet is forecast to remain
along/north of the international border, likely preventing any
incursions of Arctic air. As Thursday`s system moves off into
the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, a warm day is possible for
roughly the southeastern two thirds of the forecast area as deep
mixing is forecast before the onset of cold advection. Highs
could reach the 50s in the Hudson Valley/Litchfield County if
the timing is as currently forecast. The cold advection works
through Friday night, setting up a much cooler but still
seasonable day for Saturday. Cutoff low in the southern stream
is forecast to move offshore of the Carolinas on Sunday, but
consensus supports any precipitation with this system remaining
south of the forecast area at this time. Assuming this is the
case, high pressure should be parked over the area Sunday into
Monday, leading to dry weather. Warm advection Monday ahead of a
weak northern stream wave could result in another very mild
day.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Conditions are currently VFR across the
region with cigs above 10 kft and unrestricted vsbys. Cigs will
lower with gusty southerly winds developing over the next 5-7
hours ahead of a frontal system which will approach the region
this evening. Precipitation spreads over the area from northwest
to southeast between 23-01Z with p-type remaining the most
difficult forecast question. A wintry mix is likely at GFL/PSF
with freezing rain and sleet dominating while snow is possible
during heavier precip rates due to wet-bulb cooling; rain with
mixed sleet is possible at ALB; and all rain is expected at POU.
The difference of a few degrees at the surface could
dramatically effect the distribution of these p-types and close
monitoring of observations will be required. Vsbys will likely
be reduced to MVFR levels, but IFR conditions are not out of the
question during heavier precipitation elements. Cigs are
similarly expected to be largely MVFR, with IFR remaining
possible, particularly at GFL/PSF. Winds remain southerly to
southwesterly during precipitation with gusts ending during the
evening.

The bulk of precipitation ends after 03-04Z with some lingering
rain/snow showers possible. Cigs will remain low into Tuesday
morning, likely MVFR with IFR possible, while vsbys will return
to VFR overnight, with the exception of PSF where MVFR cigs may
persist into Tuesday afternoon. Behind the front, winds will
turn out of the west to northwest at 8-12 kt with gusts of 15-25
kt possible at ALB/POU/PSF.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for Maz001-025.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Picard


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.