Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 280552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1252 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonable warmth will continue through Wednesday ahead of a
strong cold front. Occasional showers will develop toward this
evening and continue through Wednesday. The strong cold front
will cross the region Wednesday evening bringing gusty winds and
heavy rain showers. Sharply colder air will follow in the wake
of the front, with rain ending as snow showers Wednesday night
into Thursday morning with windy conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1234 AM EST...Showers are now well east of the region and
radar imagery shows no precip ongoing within or near the area
at this time. MRMS imagery shows another band of showers and
embedded thunderstorms over northern and central Pennsylvania,
but this looks to take until nearly daybreak to reach our area,
according to the latest CAMs. As a result, it will remain cloudy
and mild through the rest of the overnight hours with our area
within the mild southerly flow ahead of the approaching storm
system over the Great Lakes.

Large north-south valleys (such as the Hudson Valley and Capital
Region) will continue to see gusty southerly winds through the
overnight, with some gusts over 20 kts at times. Elsewhere, it
will remain occasionally breezy with a south to southwest wind.
Across the entire area, the clouds and southerly breeze will
keep temps from falling much and lows will remain in the mid to
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High Wind Watch expanded to include the western/southern
Adirondacks and southern Vermont from Wednesday afternoon
through early Thursday afternoon.

High Wind Watch remains in effect for the Mohawk Valley,
Schoharie Valley, northern Catskills, Helderbergs, Capital
Region, northern/central Taconics and Berkshires from Wednesday
afternoon through early Thursday afternoon.

Wind Advisory issued for the Glens Falls and Saratoga region,
extreme southeast Vermont, Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties
from Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday afternoon.

As a deepening cyclone tracks northeastward into SE Canada on
Wednesday, with a trailing cold front tracking eastward across
western/central NY State during the day. Our area will be in a
warm sector ahead of the cold front, with the cold front
expected to push eastward across eastern New York and western
New England from late afternoon through the evening. Amount of
cloud cover is in question as it will not be a clean warm
sector. Still, high temperatures will be well above normal with
lower to perhaps mid 60s expected in most lower elevation areas.
Should sufficient sunshine occur even warmer readings may be
achieved. Daily records highs may occur in some areas(see
Climate section below). Southerly winds will steadily increase
through the day.

Multiple hazards associated with and behind the cold front:

1) Brief Heavy Rain/Strong Winds with Cold Front: Hi-res
guidance indicating a narrow cold frontal rainband just ahead of
and along the front, which could produce heavy rainfall rates
for 1-2 hours. With a healthy wind field aloft, some may mix
down associated with the low-topped convective line. Instability
looks meager with MUCAPE < 100 J/Kg from the HREF, but there
will be strong dynamics. So the Storm Prediction Center has
outlooked much of eastern NY from the Capital District and
Catskills north in a Marginal Risk(Level 1 of 5). This will
likely occur from west to east between 4-9 PM. Plenty of
moisture available with PWAT anomalies of +3 to +4 STDEV. Given
the progressive movement and resulting short length of time for
these rain rates, runoff should be relatively limited and
flooding is not expected. Ponding of water will likely occur in
urban and low lying areas.

2) Wintry Precip: Guidance continues to indicate possible brief
anafront characteristics with rain changing to sleet/snow
immediately behind the front due to a sharp temperatures
gradient and drop. Some higher terrain areas such as the
Adirondacks, could pick up a quick 1-2 inches of snow before the
precip ends 1-2 hours after the front moves through, with a
coating to one inch possible elsewhere. This could result in
some slippery travel.

3) Flash Freeze: Due to a sharp temperature gradient across the
cold front, surface temperatures will drop quickly behind the
front Wed evening into Wed night from 40s/50s into the 20s/30s
within a 4-6 hour period. With wet ground from widespread rain
prior to the frontal passage and temperatures expected to drop
below freezing, a flash freeze may occur especially on untreated
surfaces.

4) Gusty Winds: Southerly winds ahead of the cold front will be
gusty (~25-35 mph), but the strongest winds look to be
displaced above a low level inversion based on forecast
soundings. However, after the cold front pushes through deeper
mixing will quickly develop (up to ~800 mb) with strong cold
advection in wake of the front. Winds will shift to the west-
northwest. Peak gusts of 50-60 mph look attainable Wed night
into early Thu morning based on forecast winds up to the
inversion level. High Wind Watch was expanded north to include
higher terrain areas of the S. Adirondacks and S. Greens. Also
issued a Wind Advisory for all other areas not in a High Wind
Watch with gusts up to around 50 mph.

Thursday looks to be much colder and brisk with gusty northwest
winds. Highs temperatures will be below normal after the
significant warmth Wednesday, with mainly 10s to lower 20s in
the higher terrain and upper 20s to mid 30s in the valleys. High
Wind Watch/Wind Advisory continues into early afternoon with a
strong pressure gradient in place along with deep mixing (up to
~700 mb) from forecast soundings. Gusts of 50-60 mph remain
likely in watch area. With cold advection and NW flow
trajectory, lake effect snow showers will develop. With a multi-
lake connection expected in the NW flow, accumulations of at
least a few inches are possible in the Sawtooth area of southern
Herkimer County, with lesser amounts elsewhere. Snow bands are
expected to be narrow, so confidence in placement is low at this
time. A Winter Weather Advisory may eventually be needed for a
small area. Inversion heights lower significantly Thu evening,
which will result in lake effect dissipating. Prior to
weakening, some light snow showers may lift north into the
western Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks.

Surface ridging will extend north from the mid Atlantic region
Thu night, providing dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
It will remain breezy, but wind speeds/gusts will not be as
strong compared to during the day Thu. Lows will be mainly in
the lower/mid 10s in the mountains and upper 10s to lower 20s in
the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Friday looks dry as upper ridging builds into our region from
the west. Warming will also occur as the cold air lifts north.
Highs Friday in the 40s to around 50.

There is a broad consensus from sources of guidance/ensembles
that weak southern stream upper energy slowly drifts northeast
within west to southwest upper flow. There is a lot of
disagreement in the timing and track of individual upper
impulses within the broad upper flow through the beginning of
next week. Increasing upper dynamics and moisture into our
region will result in chances for showers Saturday, mainly
around and south and east of the Capital Region. Highs Saturday
in the 40s to around 50.

More broad negative tilted upper troughing within the mean
upper ridging in the eastern U.S. will support continue
intervals of clouds and scattered showers. Coverage may increase
toward Monday and Tuesday depending on whether a more organized
upper impulse tracks through the northern periphery of the
upper ridging, and the potential timing if it does happen.
Still, generally more clouds than sun with scattered showers
Sunday through Tuesday.

Highs Sunday through Tuesday in the mid to upper 50s with lower
50s higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front will approach from the southwest late tonight into
Wednesday morning with occasional rain showers, especially
toward and after daybreak. A strong cold front will then cross
the TAF sites from west to east shortly after sunset,
accompanied by a brief period of heavy rain and strong wind
gusts. Rain may briefly change to snow before ending between
03Z-06Z/Thu.

Low clouds will bring MVFR to borderline IFR Cigs overnight
through much of Wednesday. Vsbys will vary between VFR and MVFR
as occasional showers pass through.

As the cold front passes between roughly 22Z/Wed-01Z/Thu, the
brief period of heavy rain may lead to IFR Vsbys/Cigs. The rain
may change to snow, and could lead to additional MVFR/IFR Vsbys
until 03Z, except possibly longer at KPSF.

Winds will be south to southeast at 8-15 KT overnight through
most of Wednesday, with occasional gusts of 25-30 KT possible,
especially at KALB and KPSF. Winds will abruptly shift into the
west as the front moves through, with speeds increasing to 15-25
KT, and gusts of 40-45 KT, if not higher. These gusty winds
should continue through 06Z/Thu.

Low level wind shear will remain possible overnight through
Wednesday morning at any locations where surface winds decrease
to less than 10 KT, as winds around 2000 FT AGL remain from the
south to southwest at 35-45 KT.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Very Windy. Likely SHRA...SHSN.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Very Windy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Temperatures in the 40s and 50s through Wednesday will result
in some snowmelt in mountains areas, contributing to runoff
along with 0.50-1.25" of rainfall. While river rises are
expected, no flooding is forecast at this time. Some main stem
rivers may reach caution stage, especially in the Adirondack and
upper Hudson River basins.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Temperatures for February 28th:

Albany: 63 (1903)
Glens Falls: 59 (2018)
Poughkeepsie: 73 (1997)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday
     for CTZ001-013.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday
     for NYZ041-043-063>066-083-084.
     High Wind Watch from this afternoon through Thursday afternoon
     for NYZ032-033-038>040-042-047>054-058>061-082.
MA...High Wind Watch from this afternoon through Thursday afternoon
     for MAZ001-025.
VT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday
     for VTZ015.
     High Wind Watch from this afternoon through Thursday afternoon
     for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV
CLIMATE...JPV


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