364
FXUS61 KALY 221033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
633 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be hot and a little muggy with some afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow, a cold front will
usher in cooler temperatures and lower humidity, but will be
accompanied by some additional showers and thunderstorms especially
along the interstate 84 corridor. Temperatures will remain above
normal with several chances for showers through the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.Update...As of 6:30 AM EDT...Skies have become mostly clear
over the past few hours, aside from a few patches of clouds over
the Capital District and southern VT. This has allowed
temperatures to drop into the 50s for high terrain areas to mid
60s for the valleys, and current satellite imagery shows some
patchy fog for some of the areas that received rain yesterday,
especially across the ADKs and western New England. ASOS obs
show that fog is locally dense in a few places, but the fog
should mix out within the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
partly to mostly clear skies and hot temperatures expected today
with some afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. A couple
storms could be strong to severe this evening. Will note that
local CAMs study done in collaboration with SUNY Albany reveled
that some CAMs tend to be too slow with CI especially in weakly
forced environments, so slight chance to chance PoPs were
included this afternoon for a few hours earlier than if taken
verbatim from the guidance. Otherwise, just minor updates to the
previous forecast with more details below...

.Previous...Our area remains under flat upper ridging with
surface high pressure located off to our southeast over the
Atlantic. Today, we remain under the influence of the upper
ridge with southwesterly return flow around the periphery of the
surface anticyclone advecting warm air into the region.
Initially, subsidence will lead to partly to mostly clear skies,
which should help temperatures climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 for valley areas. Heat index values will likely reach
the low 90s, falling just short of heat advisory criteria today.

While most of the day remains dry, an occluded low and
associated upper low will be located to the north west of the
Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough ahead of the system`s cold
front and associated upper shortwave energy approach from the
west late this afternoon and evening, which should result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms tracking through our region.
Timing looks to be late afternoon for the western Mohawk Valley
and ADKs, and early evening to early in the overnight period for
most of the rest of the region. While shear looks to be lacking
again today, some of these storms could be on the stronger side
with SBCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg in some areas. Similar
to yesterday, this will be a "thick" cape profile with NCAPE
values approaching 0.2 this evening. So, this combined with
steep low- level lapse rates and mid-level dry air means that
some of the stronger storms could contain damaging wind gusts
and marginally severe hail. WBZ values near 10k ft also suggests
that some of these storms could have hail despite the warm and
muggy airmass. SPC has placed most of eastern NY in a marginal
risk for severe weather today, which aligns with our thinking
given this setup.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The threat for strong to severe storms diminishes overnight
tonight. Storms may track through much of eastern NY and into
western New England through the first half of tonight, but the
best chance for stronger storms will be mainly in the evening
before the sun sets. Storms should diminish after midnight, with
just a few lingering showers around. Tonight will be mild and
muggy with most areas seeing low temperatures only in the 60s.

Tomorrow, the system`s cold front will track through the region.
It now looks like the cold front will be more diffuse and
slightly faster compared to yesterday`s forecast. In fact, the
front looks to come through the Capital District between 12-15z
and should make it to our southern areas by mid afternoon,
although its forward progression looks to slow the further south
and east it gets. Still expecting some showers and storms with
the frontal passage, although timing looks to be more in the
morning for these showers/storms from albany north and west. For
our southeastern areas, especially Dutchess and Litchfield
Counties, there should be plenty of time before the front
arrives for instability to build to 1500 J/kg or more. Shear is
also more impressive than the last few days at over 30 kt for
the 0-6 km layer, some strong to severe storms remain possible
further south and east of the Capital District. The primary
threats with any stronger storms would be damaging wins and
hail. Highs Thursday will range from the 70s in the high terrain
areas to mid to upper 80s along the I-84 corridor.

We may see some showers and thunderstorms linger into Thursday
night across portions of Ulster, Dutchess, and Litchfield
Counties, although the threat for stronger storms should
diminish with the loss of daytime heating and diminishing
instability. W/NW winds will advect cooler and drier air into
the region behind the front, so lows will be mainly in the 50s
and it will not be as muggy as the previous few nights.

Friday and Friday night...Upper low ejects eastwards and track
north of our area Friday, before upper ridging and associated
surface high pressure build in Friday night. So, mainly dry
conditions are expected during this timeframe. We may get a
glancing shot of cooler air Friday, especially for northern
areas, as the core of the colder air aloft passes by to our
north, but due to the lack of moisture we are not anticipating
much in the way of showers or storms with this secondary cold
front. Highs will be cooler, but still above normal with 70s for
the high elevations and 80s for valley areas. Lows Friday night
drop into the 50s for most areas, with some upper 40s in the
high terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level shortwave will cross the region from southwest to
northeast on Saturday as a surface warm front also approaches. Some
showers and thunderstorms could accompany the front especially
during the afternoon hours. Highs should run similar to previous
days in the mid-70s to mid-80s. The system`s cold front looks to
cross the region on Sunday as weak upper ridging builds overhead.
This should result in a drier day but a few showers could still
occur along the front. Highs Sunday will be in the lower 80s along
the Hudson Valley and the 70s to around 80 elsewhere.

A complex upper level pattern looks to set up for early next week
with multiple pieces of upper-level energy rotating around one
another. Eventually, an upper level trough or upper level low looks
to form over the region. Another surface low pressure system
approaches from the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes and brings additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, possibly more widespread than
over the weekend. The extra clouds and greater coverage of
precipitation may hold temperatures into the 60s and 70s both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12z/Thu...Morning fog will lift at KGFL/KPSF by 13z/Wed,
then VFR conditions will be in place for the rest of the daytime
hours. Some weakening showers and embedded rumbles of thunder are
expected to cross the TAF sites between 02z-08z/Thu. Will maintain
VCSH for now. Cigs may remain VFR within these showers with mixed
vsbys based on the intensity of these showers. In the wake of these
showers, some partial clearing may take place and result in some
patchy fog late.

Wind will become south to southwesterly at around 10 today
decreasing to less than 10 kt tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun