011
FXUS61 KALY 160545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the East Coast will bring mild and generally
dry conditions through tonight. A cold front approaching from
the west will bring moderate to heavy showers developing from
west to east Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers may linger
into Monday, especially across western New England. Dry and mild
conditions return across the entire area Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Message:

- Mild temperatures tonight with lows mainly in the 40s.

Discussion:

.Update...As of 1:35 AM EDT...Just minor changes to previous
forecast to account for current trends. Low stratus continues to
expand northwards across the region, with marine moisture
trapped beneath a sharp inversion as seen on the 00z KALY
sounding. Will continue to mention some fog/mist/drizzle for
areas mainly along and south of I-90 under the low stratus deck
where low-level moist layer is deepest. Low stratus and breezy
S/SE winds are keeping things on the mild side tonight, except
for portions of the ADKs that are more sheltered from the wind
and cleared out earlier tonight where temperatures are in the
30s at this time. Overall, previous forecast remains in good
shape with more details below...

.Previous...Low stratus clouds expected to increase from south
to north tonight as southerly flow continues to strengthen
bringing moisture northward. Combined with a persistent
southerly breeze in most areas, low temperatures will be mild
with lows mainly in the 40s. Southerly winds will occasionally
gust 20-30 mph in favored spots. Much of the night should be
dry, although isolated to scattered light showers or patchy
drizzle may occur for areas south/east of Albany.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence(60-80%) for widespread moderate rainfall
  amounts of 0.50-0.75" through 8 AM Monday morning, with
  moderate confidence(30-60%) for heavier amounts exceeding one
  inch.

- Strengthening southerly winds with gusts up to 45 mph
  expected for areas east of the Hudson Valley Sunday into
  Sunday evening.

Discussion:

Pattern amplifies on Sun, as a full-latitude upper level trough
progresses east extending from the Great Lakes south through
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and into the deep south, with ridging
in place along and off the east coast. This will result in
further strengthening of southerly winds. 850 mb
v-component(southerly) wind anomalies are forecast to increase
to +2 to +4 STDEV on Sun. Forecast soundings to show a low level
inversion, but setting up around 875-850 mb so there should be
good mixing potential up to this level. Peak wind gusts along
south-facing slopes and favored channeled flow locations could
reach 45-50 mph mainly east of the Hudson Valley into the
Taconics and western New England. If confidence increases, a
Wind Advisory may be needed. Cloud cover forecast somewhat
tricky, as there will likely be plenty of low stratus around
through at least the morning, but could hold much of the day.
However with a very mild air mass and southerly flow, high
temperatures could still reach well into the 60s in most lower
elevation areas, with 50s in the higher terrain.

As a cold front starts to approach from the west, chances for
moderate to briefly heavy showers will increase during the late
afternoon to evening hours. Isolated thunder possible with some
elevated instability present. With no discernible surface-based
CAPE forecast, the threat for severe storms is very low.
However, one or more narrow bands of showers with downpours and
gusty winds will likely move through as depicted by various
CAMs. PWATs are forecast to rise to +3 to +4 STDEV, so there
will be plenty of moisture available. Fortunately, the
showers/downpours should generally move through fairly quickly
in a 2-4 hour window in the evening to overnight, although may
linger longer across western New England as a weak wave of low
pressure develops along the eastward advancing cold front. Still
looking at 30-60% prob for > 1" rain, with the highest chances
SE Catskills into NW CT. Some minor river flooding, urban/poor
drainage and isolated ice jam flooding may occur. See Hydrology
section for details.

Latest guidance has rain showers lingering across western New
England through at least Mon morning, so will mention likely
PoPs then trending drier in the afternoon. Temperatures will be
much cooler than Sun in the cold advection regime, ranging from
upper 30s in the Adirondacks to lower/mid 50s in the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT. Tranquil conditions with near normal low
temperatures expected Mon night as surface high pressure builds
in from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Dry weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday with well above
  normal temperatures.

- The next chance for widespread precipitation and gusty winds
  is Thursday with a strong cold frontal passage.

Discussion:

High pressure extending from northern New England all the way
to the Florida Gulf coast will provide dry conditions with
temperatures rising back above normal with 850 mb temperature
anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV. Assuming ample sunshine,
highs should reach the mid/upper 50s in lower elevations. High
pressure then shifts east into New England Tue night, providing
continued dry and relatively mild weather. Wed has the potential
for even warmer temperatures as a southerly flow develops
around high pressure departing off the east coast. NBM prob
indicate a 30-60% chance for maximum temperatures exceeding 65F
in valley areas. Mild temperatures continue Wed night as
southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front approaching from
the west.

There are differences in timing of the cold front among the
guidance, but overall expecting the front to move across our
area in the Thu morning to Thu evening time frame. Depending on
the timing, temperatures could get quite mild ahead of the cold
front. Will go with NBM for now, which has widespread lower 60s
for highs in valley locations. While there be a good likelihood
for showers with the front, moisture looks less favorable for
heavy rainfall as PWAT anomalies barely rise to above +1 STDEV
in some areas. Colder air will filter in Thu night, with W-NW
winds becoming quite gusty as low pressure deepens and
consolidates over Maine. Some wrap- around/upslope snow showers
may occur in the W. Adirondacks and S. Greens, otherwise it will
become drier. A much cooler and more seasonable air mass will
be over the area Fri into Sat. It still looks windy on Fri, then
decreasing Sat as high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...widespread MVFR/IFR Cigs expected through
at least 15Z/Sun, with areas of LIFR Cigs possible at KPSF.
Vsbys will range from VFR to MVFR with patches of drizzle
possible during this time, with localized IFR Vsbys possible at
KPSF. After 15Z/Sun, mainly MVFR Cigs and VFR Vsbys are expected
through around 20Z/Sun. Spotty showers will increase in coverage
after 20Z/Sun from west to east, with Vsbys occasionally
dropping to MVFR/IFR. A narrow band of heavier showers is
expected to track from west to east across the TAF sites between
roughly 00Z-03Z/Mon with a period of IFR Vsbys/Cigs and gusty
winds. In the wake of this band, a steady light to moderate rain
will persist with MVFR Cigs and MVFR/IFR Vsbys.

South to southeast winds will persist through daybreak at 5-15
KT with a few gusts up to 25 KT possible, especially at KALB.
South to southeast winds will increase to 10-20 KT by late
Sunday morning with gusts of 25-35 KT possible. Winds will
become south to southwest and decrease to 8-15 KT during Sunday
evening.

Low level wind shear will persist overnight into Sunday morning
as winds around 2000 FT AGL remain from the south at 30-40 KT
while surface winds occasionally drop below 15 KT.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy. Definite RA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...RA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Key Messages:

- There is a medium chance of minor river flooding in the
  western Mohawk Valley and Southern Adirondacks Sunday night
  into Monday.

- Flood Watch remains in effect for the western Mohawk Valley,
  southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region and southern
  Vermont from 12 PM Sunday to 2 PM Monday.

Discussion:

Chances for rainfall amounts to exceed 1 inch are generally
30-60% across the region for the 24-hour period ending 8 AM
Monday, with highest probs across the SE Catskills and portions
of NW CT. In addition to a period of moderate to briefly heavy
rainfall, mild temperatures and gusty winds will ripen the
existing snowpack across the Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks
and southern Vermont into Sunday.

NOHRSC shows 4 to 10 inches of SWE in the snow pack in the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens and it is unlikely that
all of this will melt out with this event. Still, the
combination of 1-2+ inches of snow melt plus rainfall of 0.75"
to 1.25" will lead to river rises. Hydrologic ensemble guidance
continue to indicate a low to medium chance rivers and streams
in the southern Adirondacks into the Mohawk Valley reaching
minor flood stage early next week.

The latest NERFC hydrographs have Little Falls on the Mohawk
River and Hope on the Sacandaga River reaching the Minor Flood
Stage Monday morning. The rainfall associated with the front
should be ending across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley by
daybreak Monday with the run off beginning to decrease. Some
isolated ice jams are possible in the southern Adirondacks
Region.

As is typical with these events, the main areas of uncertainty
are (1) how much of the existing snow water equivalent (SWE)
will melt out and (2) how much total rain will fall (QPF) and
over what duration.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Monday afternoon for
     NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
MA...None.
VT...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Monday afternoon for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...Main/JPV/Speciale
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV