Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 191749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1149 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Rather compact upper low moving across the Ks/Ok border early this
morning with cloud tops now warming over the CWA. Enhancement of
light snow over southeast Wy earlier is now waning as dynamics
are moving out of the area and expect this trend to continue.
Webcams show roads in decent shape so have opted to cancel all
highlites with forecast issuance as little additional snowfall is

A cool day across the CWA today under nwly flow aloft. It will be
a little breezy as some of the faster mid level winds mix down.
Should also see some snow showers around the mtns this afternoon
as a weak impulse moves by. Latest HRRR continues to show this.
Activity will end this evening with clearing conditions. Dry
Tuesday as upper ridging begins moving towards the area. Max
temperatures about 10 degrees warmer on Tuesday with more sunshine
and warming 700H temps.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Fairly quiet pattern with a gradual warmup expected Wednesday into
Thursday. The models still depict an increase in shortwave energy
and moisture by Friday and through the weekend as a rather broad
upper trough moves eastward from the Pacific Northwest. Have kept
trends from the extended range ensembles going through the weekend
with some mention of precipitation chances by the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

The main concern with this TAF issuance is the timing of when the
MVFR ceilings will erode across the Nebraska panhandle. Latest
visible imagery was showing a pocket of clearing taking place
across eastern Wyoming. This pocket of clearing should begin to
move into BFF during the next couple of hours. Meanwhile, the rest
of the TAF sites will most likely not see much in the way of
improvement during the afternoon. The exception may be in SNY
where they may try to scatter out late in the day. CDR...may hold
on to the low ceilings the longest as a pocket of colder boundary
layer air moves in from the north. These low clouds in CDR may
actually hang until the early evening before clearing out.
However, these low clouds may fill back in as the night wears on,
due to the residual boundary layer and produce some LIFR ceilings
or fog. AIA may experience that as well. Meanwhile, the rest of
the area should see mostly clear skies overnight with light wind
speeds until Tuesday morning.


Issued at 304 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Fire concerns to remain very low over the next few days due to
cool to mild temperatures and recent wetting precipitation.




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