Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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439 FXUS65 KCYS 032017 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 217 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will move through the region today with another round of shower activity in the mountains. Snow levels will remain above 6500 feet. - Breezy to windy, and cooler weather expected for Monday through Wednesday, with isolated to scattered late day showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 As the cold front continues to move east across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, we saw a weaker dryline develop ahead of it stretching from near Cheyenne to Alliance with southerly winds and dewpoints in the upper 40s ahead of it, and north to northwest winds and dewpoints in the 20s to low 30s behind it. A line of thunderstorms developed along it with pockets of 40 knots of shear and CAPE values near 1000 J/kg, but it was quickly undercut by the approaching cold front and died out nearly as fast as it developed. Rawlins saw some moderate to heavy snow showers this morning, and while they are very slowly moving east, they will likely not impact areas east of Interstate-25, producing very little precipitation between the Laramie Valley and the Interstate-25 corridor, including Cheyenne. The primary impacts to areas between the Laramie Valley and the Interstate-25 corridor for the rest of the day will be occasional light rain showers and snow showers possible above 6500 feet, but mainly strong gusty winds with wind gusts 35 to 45 mph possible and colder temperatures tonight. Saturday the trough moves off to the east as a ridge approaches southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska bringing high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s with clear skies. Winds will likely be light with south to southeast wind gusts 20 to 30 mph possible across the High Plains. Overall a pleasant, cool Saturday expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Warm day Sunday will transition to a prolonged windy and slightly cooler pattern as a storm system slow churns across Intermountain West beginning Monday and persisting into Wednesday. Looking like there is a chance for elevated winds with intermittent periods of high winds to impact the wind prone areas and much of the I-25 corridor and areas across the Nebraska Panhandle. The long term forecast will begin with a nice day on tap for Sunday as upper level ridging settles across the area allowing for 700mb temperatures to climb into the 7-11C which will translate to afternoon high temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to mid 70s for locations east of the Laramie Range and into the Nebraska Panhandle. Ahead of the next storm system increasing clouds and low level moisture will lead to the development of some high elevation snow showers across Carbon county and the Sierra Madres. Not expecting much in the way of impactful accumulation with these snow showers. A combination of a slow moving and strengthening storm system moving to our south and some lee troughing will be the catalysts from a prolonged period of windy conditions across much of SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Not much change regarding the NBM probabilities as they continue to show a period from Monday through Wednesday night where a large swath of SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle of seeing a (>80%) chance of seeing wind gusts greater than 40 mph Monday through Wednesday with lower intermittent probabilities of periodically seeing wind gusts up to high wind criteria (>58 mph). The wind prones should see more consistent wind gusts above high wind criteria so if we can stay underneath the jet energy aloft and keep those gradients tight then I`d expect we may begin to issue high wind highlights in the coming forecast updates. The extent of the winds and magnitude as stated above will be the track of the low pressure system to our south as a more southerly shift would pull the bulk of the high winds aloft further south into Colorado and this cut down on both the magnitude and duration of the wind threat. This track to the south would also pull the wrap around moisture out of northern Wyoming and southern South Dakota and shift it more into our area increasing the precipitation chances heading into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1110 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Snow showers have been moving through KRWL with an associated cold front, dropping conditions to IFR and will likely continue over the next few hours, clearing up by this evening. These snow showers will continue moving east and will begin to affect KLAR over the next two hours, and potentially KCYS in the next four hours. Precipitation type will more likely be rain by the time it reaches KCYS. In addition, thunderstorms will likely begin developing in the eastern Nebraska panhandle this afternoon, if they were to develop and affect any terminal, it will most likely be KAIA. As the cold front moves across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, winds will turn more northerly with strong wind gusts 30 to 40+ knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LEG LONG TERM...AW AVIATION...LEG