


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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660 FXUS65 KCYS 101718 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1118 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a potential for isolated strong to severe storms on Thursday afternoon and evening for portions of the western Nebraska panhandle. - Much cooler Thursday night and Friday as a strong cold front moves south across the high plains. - Brief warming trend Sunday & Monday ahead of the next strong July cold front. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 305 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Pretty warm early this morning with thick mid to high cloud cover pushing across the area and some downslope winds ahead of the Pacific disturbance which is moving eastward along the Colorado/Wyoming border. Temperatures at 2:30 am local time are in the middle 70s to low 80s across the area along and east of the Laramie Range. Further west, well-advertised light showers and embedded thunder currently lifting northeast ahead of the Pacific disturbance and weak midlevel cold pool. These showers and thunderstorms are producing gusts over 50 mph over portions of Carbon County early this morning. Gusts have been very brief, so handling with convective Special Weather Statements for now. Upper level ridge axis will continue to break down today as it pushes eastward, allowing the Pacific disturbance to cross into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska by the afternoon. This will aid in shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon after a brief lull later this morning. As the trough axis and midlevel cooler air moves over the area, instability will increase with marginal 0-6km shear around 25 knots. Model soundings and convective parameters do not look as impressive compared to this time yesterday with SBCAPE values around 1000 to 1500 j/kg lower, likely due to the partly to mostly cloudy skies today and the midlevel cold pool lagging a few hours behind. There is decent forcing but 0-6km shear has remained around the same. Agree with SPC, which has lowered the severe threat to a marginal risk for the eastern plains today. High res CAM guidance showers multicell clusters and occasional linear bands developing after noon today and continuing through 700 pm across the Nebraska Panhandle this evening. Thunderstorm activity will linger through the evening hours as the trough axis pushes east of the Nebraska/Wyoming border, but should end before midnight. Gusty winds up to 65 mph and ~1.00 diameter hail appear to be the high end threats with these storms today. Slight cooler temperatures today across the area, but highs will be around normal for this time of the year. Once the shortwave trough axis moves east of the area by early Friday, models show the upper level flow veering into the northwest as a relatively strong cold front for this time of year digs south into the Front Range. Expect much cooler temperatures for Friday and Saturday, however...not as cool as we were expecting a few days ago as the cooler air behind the front is trending slower, and the forecast stratus deck looks like it will be brief over southeast Wyoming. With ensemble means and deterministic trending higher with high temps, increases max temperatures on Friday a few degrees and generally in the mid 70s to low 80s...warmest for far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Low stratus and potential fog looks like it will be delayed until Friday night...for mainly the I-80 Summit and vicinity as surface winds finally shift into the east and then southeast. With more sunshine expected on Friday afternoon, this also means a much better potential for showers and numerous thunderstorms, especially for southeast Wyoming. Increased POP up to 70 percent along and west of I-25. Will have to watch for a better chance of severe weather, but agree with SPC and the marginal risk for now. Saturday will be similar to Friday but with a warming trend beginning a day early north of Interstate 80. Further south, clouds may hang on into the early afternoon hours with a better chance for thunderstorms...generally from Elk Mountain eastward to Sidney Nebraska. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 329 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 For later this weekend, a gradual warming trend is expected as the upper level high across the desert southwest slowly builds northward and intensifies. Thunderstorm activity is forecast to become more isolated through by late Saturday and Sunday as 700mb climb above 15c. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s will return for much of the forecast area by Sunday and next Monday. Models are still showing another potent upper low over southern Canada dropping another strong cold front across the forecast area on Monday. Timing of the front at this time looks to be in the afternoon, so high temps will remain hot and thunderstorm chances and intensity will depend on the midlevel cap. Expect cooler temperatures in the post frontal environment for Tuesday along with upslope stratus/fog in the early morning. Upslope forcing along with cooler midlevel temps will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in place through Tuesday evening. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1118 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Primarily VFR will continue through the forecast period for southeast Wyo and western Neb terminals. The main aviation weather concerns are scattered rain showers and thunderstorms through this evening, along with gusty north winds. Gusts 25+ kts are likely near and outside any shower activity in Wyo this afternoon and everywhere tomorrow morning. Stronger gusts will accompany any storm this evening. An overnight lull with a brief transition to south/southeast flow may contribute to a limited stratus deck and/or fog from KCYS to KLAR. Low confidence and coverage has precluded any mention in the TAF for now. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...WFOCYS AVIATION...DS