Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 190450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1150 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Stratus was slow to erode this afternoon with only a few breaks in
the clouds seen on satellite.  As a result, highs today have been
lowered slightly, especially near the Kansas/Nebraska boarder where
it will be stuck in the 40s today.  The main story of the near term
is a compact upper low moving across southern Kansas bringing
chances for precipitation overnight and through Monday night.
Soundings indicate there could be some elevated instability this
evening leading some rumbles of thunder across the CWA, but
any severe potential looks to be well south of the area.

Showers are expected to begin this evening ahead of the low with the
heaviest precipitation seen early tomorrow morning as the maximum
ascent moves across eastern Kansas as the low passes to the south.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the low 40s, and not
moving up much during the day Monday as the rainy weather continues.
 Could see some gustier winds on the backside of this system during
the afternoon tomorrow with gusts up to 30 mph possible.  As for
rain totals, currently have anywhere from a half an inch up to an
inch for all of northeast Kansas, the bulk of which is expected to
fall early tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A wave over eastern Kansas will move east of the area by Tuesday
morning bringing any lingering precipitation to an end.  Do have
some chances for a rain/snow mix with this departing system as
temperatures near the Kansas/Nebraska boarder fall into the low 30s.
Skies begin to clear during the afternoon hours as northwest flow
sets up over the central Plains.  Surface high pressure behind this
system will keep northerly flow on Tuesday with highs only reaching
into the upper 40s and low 50s.  This high will move southeast of
central Plains by Wednesday and WAA will bring warmer
temperatures for the ladder half of the week with highs reaching
into the mid to upper 70s by Friday. A low pressure system
deepening on the lee side of the Rockies will move across Kansas
Thursday night into Friday bringing a small chance for some
precipitation to northeast Kansas. Although there are some model
discrepancies, a deep mid- level trough is forecast to be moving
just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Saturday and looks to
be the next weather maker for Sunday as a lead wave moves across
the central Plains. The GFS develops precipitation early Sunday
morning continuing through the day while the ECMWF keeps things
dry until that night. As always, this forecast will continue to be
fine tuned through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Still believe IFR conditions will develop over the next several
hours, more likely in the 8-9Z window when a break in precip looks
to move in. Terminals could be on northern end of more persistent
precip after 12Z, but IFR conditions still likely in stratus.
Improvements remain to be anticipated after 18Z, but MHK could be
on south end of precip in next weaker wave after 0Z. Will keep
VFR conditions at this time but will need to watch this.




LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...65 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.