Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 220345
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1045 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

The rain has ended and have removed. Latest short term hires
models point to some fog developing around northwest Wisconsin, as
well as near the Twin Ports and the Brainerd Lakes. Added a patchy
fog mention late tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Showers continue to drift through east central Minnesota, to the
Twin Ports and west to Cass Lake. Additional showers are popping
up just south of the forecast area as the slowly moving upper
level trof moves east. Bumped up pops in response to this shower
activity and spread it a bit farther east due to anticipated
additional activity. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Generally warm and dry with light winds though moisture is on the
increase as a system moves through Illinois. This system is
spawning some light showers this afternoon mainly south of a line
extending from Duluth to Red Lake under a short wave. None of
these storms should be severe - more of just nuisance showers.
This system will increase cloud cover over the southern half of
the forecast area.

High pressure builds for Tuesday for another quiet, dry, and warm
day. Even the winds will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

The beginning of the extended period looks to start out quite
tranquil with short wave ridging overhead Tuesday night/Wednesday.
The result for sensible weather should be more of the same, with
rather chilly overnight temps (especially in the interior Minnesota
Arrowhead) Wednesday morning, but with temps rapidly rebounding
Wednesday to at or above seasonal norms for the late part of May.

An upper level disturbance will approach the region from the
southwest Wednesday night/Thursday time frame, and should be
accompanied by the first push of decent-quality low level moisture
for the season.  Surface dewpoints are expected to rise into the
lower/mid 60s during the late Thursday-Saturday time frame, and this
should be sufficient for the development of several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms late this week and into the first part of
the Memorial Day Holiday weekend.  Mean boundary layer mixing ratios
between 11-13 g/kg should support CAPE values between 1000-2000
j/kg, which could be sufficient for a few stronger thunderstorms.
However, at this time, the medium range models are not forecasting
deep layer shear to be particularly strong (generally around or less
than 30 knots) - and this will be a limiting factor for severe
storms unless shear eventually verifies as stronger.

While the strongest deep-layer forcing for ascent with this system
should be across far northern Minnesota and northward into Canada,
there should be sufficient forcing to allow for rather decent
coverage of showers/storms and some much-needed rainfall across the
region during the Thursday through Saturday time frame.

At present, the latter part of the upcoming Holiday weekend looks to
be a return to pleasant weather, with near or slightly above normal
temps, and minimal chances for precipitation Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Mainly VFR at the start of the forecast. The exception being at
BRD where MVFR cigs have arrived on the backside of some earlier
shower activity. Will see some of the MVFR cigs drift through or
near DLH and HYR. Improvement to VFR at BRD/DLH/HYR expected
after 14Z. HIB and INL should remain VFR through the forecast.
Showers will be in the vicinity of BRD/DLH/HYR through 04Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  74  52  79 /  70   0   0  10
INL  47  77  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  52  74  53  81 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  51  74  51  82 /  10   0   0  10
ASX  49  75  50  79 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...GSF


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