Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 071129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
629 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Some low chances for sprinkles around the periphery of the CWA,
otherwise mostly dry next couple days with near-critical fire
weather concerns. Fairly seasonable temperatures. Chances for
precipitation return end of the week.

The next couple days will be fairly rinse and repeat of what we have
been seeing. Seasonable temperatures in the 60s and 70s, with the
occasional location hitting 80. The occasional disturbance leading
to a sprinkle here or there. A little different today and tomorrow
is just how dry it is expected to get. Relative humidity will bottom
out in the 15 to 30 percent range, lowest over the MN Arrowhead, WI
Pine Barrens, and along the periphery of the WI Northern Highlands in
Iron and Price Co. With deep good mixing, current relative humidity
forecasts which bottom out around 15-20% may not be low enough for
those locations. Smoke moves back in aloft through the day today,
mainly over the far eastern Arrowhead and Wisconsin which will lead
to hazy skies. Some smoke may be able to mix down into Thursday

Once again today, a stronger northeast wind will build off Lake
Superior, which will lead to higher waves towards the Twin Ports.
Rip current risk is high, and a Beach Hazards statement has been
issued for Minnesota and Wisconsin Point beaches. This northeast
wind will also keep lakeshore areas cooler, in the 50s and 60s.

We`ll have quite the cool night overnight into Thursday with
temperatures falling into the mid to low 40s except along the
western edge of the CWA. Especially in known cold areas (north of
the Duluth along 53, higher terrain of Douglas/Bayfield/Ashland/Iron
Counties, down the St. Louis and Nemadji river valleys), some
isolated frost may be possible. However, with smoke aloft there is
some uncertainly of how much that will allow heat to escape, though
winds will be very calm. However, it will be pretty dry overnight
with dew points in the low 30s. Have opted for no frost advisory at
this point.

As has been previously mentioned, our upper level pattern is poised
to give us some variety into the weekend, with a shortwave falling
across the area late this week. This should bring a cold front
across through the day Friday and chances for precipitation and some
thunderstorms. Ensembles suggest a tenth or two of rain for
everyone, which would certainly be welcome, but I have my doubts
that any storm mode would really be that widespread.

End of the weekend into mid next week, global ensembles continue to
trend towards a solution of a cut off low over the Great Lakes.
Depending on exactly where this sets up, it might bring some hit or
miss shower chances. However, looking towards extended forecasts
beyond next week, ensembles continue to suggest a below average
precipitation June with mostly near to above average temperatures,
which will likely further exacerbate any ongoing dry conditions,
setting the stage for a possible flash drought. Hopefully, our
on/off showers are good enough to keep any major drought at bay.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

VFR across the region should continue through the TAF period. There
are some very light showers near HIB, but confidence is low that
these showers are even able to reach the ground. The most that
appears to be falling out of them are a couple sprinkles and should
not lead to any visibility or ceiling restrictions if they do manage
to come over a terminal. An area of rain moving over far northwest
Minnesota is expected to lead to some light showers over north-
central MN today, which will lead to some rain showers around INL
through this afternoon. Gusty east to northeast winds are expected
again this afternoon for DLH and HYR before calming down into the
evening hours.


Issued at 408 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Northeast winds pick up across the lake once again, with highest
gusts in the afternoon of 15-25 knots, greatest at the head of the
lake. Conditions will be on the cusp of small craft criteria, and
with summertime small craft  traffic as well as the tendency for
northeast winds to overachieve, have opted to issue a low end
advisory for the nearshore zones from Two Harbors to Port Wing.
Waves 2-4 feet at the head of the lake with 1-3 footers elsewhere.
Winds should calm overnight. Thursday, northeast winds remain, but
much lighter this time as winds on land begin to become southerly.
The lake will reflect that change on Friday with southwesterly winds
ahead of a front. This period of southwest winds shouldn`t be too
long or strong, so not too worried about a sudden drop in water
temperatures around the Twin Ports. Northeast winds return behind
the cold front, which may bring some thunderstorms Friday afternoon
and evening into Saturday morning.


DLH  67  44  72  50 /   0   0   0  20
INL  77  51  78  55 /  10  20  20  50
BRD  78  53  79  58 /  10  10  10  20
HYR  79  44  79  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  67  38  72  43 /   0   0   0  10


WI...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ144-145.



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