079
FXUS63 KDLH 240845
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
345 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog early this morning will dissipate shortly after
  sunrise. Additional rounds of patchy fog will be possible over
  the next couple nights.

- Dry weather expected through the remainder of the workweek.
  Skies will have a hazy appearance from wildfire smoke aloft.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive this weekend into
  early next week. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

A dry pattern will be settling over the Northland today through the
remainder of the workweek as high pressure builds. Patchy dense fog
occurring early this morning, especially along the Iron Range
and in northwest Wisconsin, will be dissipating shortly after
sunrise as diurnal heating begins. Expect today to be pleasant
with highs in the 70s and plentiful sunshine mixed with
scattered afternoon cumulus. One thing of note today is that
there will be a hazy appearance to the sky, as smoke from
Canadian wildfires advects over the CWA. This smoke is expected
to remain aloft with minimal to no mixing down to the surface.

Other than the potential for additional rounds of radiation fog the
next couple nights, the main story over the next couple days is
increasing temps and continued smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires.
A ridge, who`s axis is currently located over the Intermountain
West, will slowly propagate eastward over the next few days. This
will put the CWA under a WAA regime and usher in very warm to hot
temps on Friday through the weekend. Expect high temps to increase
into the mid to upper 80s on Friday and remain elevated through the
weekend. A few 90s will also be possible (55% chance) this weekend,
especially in southern portions of the CWA. Overnight lows this
weekend will also be toasty, with temps in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Looking ahead to our next chance for precipitation, chances for
showers and thunderstorms arrive this weekend and persist
periodically into early next week as a series of upper-level
disturbances propagate across the Upper Midwest. A decently strong
shortwave will be entering the central portion of the continent on
Saturday. However, the best forcing and instability is expected to
be north of the Border in Manitoba and Ontario, which will limit
severe weather potential in the CWA. Regardless, scattered showers
and storms are likely (60% chance) on Saturday, especially in north-
central MN. A better chance for more widespread showers and storms
arrive late Sunday into Monday as additional shortwaves move through
the Upper Midwest. Expect temps across the CWA to remain very warm
heading into early next week as warm air advection continues.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Fog development is expected to occur tonight, especially over
northwest Wisconsin and around the Iron Range. Recent model runs
have shown a notable trend towards LIFR visibilities for HYR and
HIB. In addition, since IFR to LIFR fog has already started in north-
central WI and the western UP, LIFR visibility was introduced
in the 06z update. Elsewhere, MVFR to IFR fog will be possible
early this morning. Expect VFR conditions through the remainder
of the period once fog dissipates shortly after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

High pressure building over the upper Great Lakes today will linger
through the remainder of the workweek. This will result in
relatively light winds under 15 knots through Thursday night with
waves under 2 feet. Expect mostly sunny to sunny skies with a hazy
appearance due to wildfire smoke aloft. Overnight, patchy fog will
be possible over the next couple nights. Wind gusts increase
slightly to around 20 knots on Friday as the pressure gradient
tightens. However, Small Craft Advisories are unlikely at this
time.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ147-148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh