Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 232347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
647 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Chances for showers and thunderstorms should rapidly increase
tonight from south to north across the Northland, as a 30-35 knot
low level jet impinges on a fairly strong WNW-ESE gradient of low
level moisture and instability currently located across southern
MN. Deep layer shear is pretty weak tonight along this northward-
retreating warm frontal zone, but the low level forcing should be
moderately strong, and aided by some 925-850 mesoscale
frontogenesis forcing for ascent. Thus, it`s not entirely out of
the question that a few storms later tonight could become rather
strong with some small hail and gusty winds.

Some storms are likely to linger into the day Thursday, especially
across northern/northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin where
the residual low level jet will still be focused through midday
along the warm frontal zone. The warm sector should reload during
the afternoon, with initiation of additional storms along a mass
convergence axis that is forecast to set up in the eastern
Dakotas. Deep layer shear once again will not be particularly
strong, but will likely be sufficient for a few strong/severe
storms Thursday evening to our west, which should then organize
into a cluster of storms that will move eastward across central
and northern Minnesota Thursday night and Friday morning.
Additional storms could also develop along the Canadian border
region Thursday evening if the warm frontal zone does not move as
far northward into Ontario as currently forecasted by the model
mass fields. The best chance for strong or severe storms across
the Duluth CWA is expected to be Thursday night when strong wind
gusts and large hail could accompany the strongest storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
early part of the Memorial Day weekend as a warm and rather humid
airmass remains in place across most of the region, and a series
of weak disturbances move across the region. Given available
guidance, it appears that chances for precip will diminish from
west to east Saturday night and Sunday as weak cold front moves
thought the area followed by high pressure.

Warmer and more humid conditions may then return to the region by
the middle part of next week, and this could be accompanied by
more showers and thunderstorms as a large scale trof moves toward
the region from the Rocky Mountain region.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

VFR is expected through the period. A few showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to affect the terminals through the
night. Timing is difficult, but a few batches of showers/isold
thunderstorms appear ready to affect BRD by 02Z and have a VCSH
mention. Used a VCSH mention at the other taf sites to account for
some timing. Still expecting LLWS to affect BRD from 05-12Z. Low
confidence on adding LLWS at the other terminals and have left
out. Gusty surface winds expected Thursday afternoon.


DLH  54  81  61  85 /  60  20  50  30
INL  58  86  61  83 /  50  40  40  40
BRD  61  87  62  87 /  40  30  50  10
HYR  60  87  64  86 /  50  20  50  30
ASX  51  86  62  84 /  60  40  50  30




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