Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 241125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
625 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 447 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Summary: Quiet weather continues today with partly to mostly sunny
skies. Our next chance for rain arrives tonight and will continue
through Wednesday night. Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected over
northwest Wisconsin. A brief lull in the pattern is expected on
Friday before wet weather likely settles over the area for Memorial
Day weekend.

A weak moisture-starved shortwave crossing the CWA this morning has
led to scattered sprinkles near the International Border. Any
showers that continue later this morning are expected to transition
to virga as a deep mixed layer develops. Model soundings once again
show a deep inverted V in the boundary layer extending to around
700mb. At the top of this inverted V will likely be a scattered
diurnal cumulus field. These diurnal cumulus are expected to
continue through the afternoon before dissipating this evening. WAA
will result in warmer temps today, with highs in the mid to upper

The next chance for widespread rain arrives late tonight and will
continue through Wednesday night. A high amplitude trough over the
Front Range today will produce a cutoff low over the southern Plains
late tonight. Locally, the resulting trough will cross over the CWA
and develop widespread rainfall for Wednesday. Deep moisture
advection originating from the Gulf of Mexico will result in decent
rainfall rates, particularly over northwest Wisconsin. Ensemble
plumes over NW WI show a clustering of total QPF around 0.6-1".
Expect lesser rain amounts for western areas of the CWA. Rain will
taper off from west to east throughout the day on Thursday.

A brief lull in the pattern is expected on Friday as the cutoff low
slowly propagates eastward through the southern CONUS and the jet
stream remains north of the CWA. This is likely to change on
Saturday as a longwave trough moves into the area. The Northern
Hemispheric view of the GFS shows a potential Rex Block forming over
the eastern CONUS and North Atlantic this weekend. If this blocking
pattern does develop, this trough will likely remain over the CWA
through the holiday weekend and into early next week. This trough is
unlikely to be moisture starved, as IVT from the GFS shows moisture
contributions from both the Gulf as well as an atmospheric river
entering the CONUS off the coast of California. Therefore, rain
chances will persist from Saturday through at least Tuesday. In
addition, thunderstorms will also be possible for Memorial Day
weekend with some early indications of increased instability and
higher shear. In terms of severe potential, there`s still too much
uncertainty at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

VFR conditions are expected today. Diurnal scattered VFR cumulus are
likely to develop later this morning and persist through the
afternoon. South to southwest winds are expected today with the
potential for gusty winds in INL during the late morning to early
afternoon hours. Light rain moves in tomorrow morning, likely to
reach HYR before 12z tomorrow morning.


Issued at 447 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Quiet weather continues today as high pressure remains near western
Lake Superior. Winds are expected to shift to the northeast late
Wednesday morning and increase to around 15 to 20 knots with gusts
of 25 to 30 knots. In addition, waves on Wednesday are likely to
build to heights of 4 to 6 feet for most nearshore waters. Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed across western Lake Superior
on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds and waves are likely to
ease by Thursday morning as winds shift to the northwest.


DLH  67  45  51  42 /   0  40  90  60
INL  69  44  62  41 /  10  10  50  40
BRD  68  48  52  44 /   0  50  80  40
HYR  68  45  54  41 /   0  70  90  70
ASX  68  43  52  39 /   0  50  90  80




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