Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 032343
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
643 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Inverted trough axis sliding through the area this afternoon has
produced a wintry mixture of rain/freezing rain/sleet and snow
across the area. I expect this to continue to slide east into this
evening, and have expanded the winter weather advisory east and
into the Arrowhead to account for the continued swath of minor ice
accumulations that we are seeing with this band of precipitation.
Have decided to expand the winter weather advisory east a little
farther and also up into the Arrowhead, but kept it until 7 PM. We
will have to monitor the precipitation types carefully to see if
it needs further expansion. As the precipitation and front moves
off to the east, a ridge of high pressure slides into the area for
later tonight, Saturday and Saturday night. Tonight will be on the
cold side with lows ranging from the single digits around
International Falls, to the teens in northwest Wisconsin. Saturday
to recover nicely into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and and will be
followed by a mostly clear night in the teens to mid 20s Saturday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will be common on Sunday as high
pressure moves east out of the region. Southerly warm air advection
will bring in some warmer temperatures with highs reaching the low
50s for most places and 40s near Lake Superior. Models suggest a
weak wave passing across the International Border, which could bring
some light rain showers. For now, kept the forecast dry as the GFS
is the only model hinting at rain.

Clouds and rain chances return Monday, especially for central
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin where warm air advection and
moisture meet. Generally expecting the p-type to be rain, but
couldn`t rule out some early morning light mixed precip in northern
Minnesota. A brief break in precipitation is possible Monday night,
but an incoming upper level trough with some warm and potentially
unstable air moving in Tuesday morning will promote more rain
chances with the possibility for some embedded thunderstorms. Long-
range models suggest up to 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE for parts of
northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota with plenty of warm
air advection to promote lift. These CAPE values don`t seem
suggestive for severe weather, but certainly some thunder is
possible.

A cold front will swing through Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
model differences persisting with timing. A fairly robust upper
level trough will swing through on Wednesday, and this will bring
continued chances for light rain showers, possibly mixed with some
snowflakes during the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday. This
general pattern of cool northwest flow with on and off shower
chances will likely persist through the end of the week with highs
generally in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

MVFR/IFR conditions continue to persist this evening as a slow
moving cold front propagates to the east. LIFR conditions are
expected for the next couple of hours over HYR due to snow and
freezing fog limiting visibility. Conditions will begin to improve
over the Northland as we head into the overnight hours and high
pressure builds in behind the exiting system. Look for clouds to
begin to scatter out and lift in the early morning hours with clear
skies expected for Saturday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Some gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will persist into the
evening hours for parts of the Bayfield Peninsula and North Shore
before gradually lightening up overnight as high pressure moves in.
There could be a few occasional gusts as high as 25 kt early, but
expecting this to last for a few hours this evening before winds
lighten up. High pressure in place on Saturday will keep winds from
being too strong, though some gusts up to 15 kt from the west are
possible at times. Quiet weather with generally light winds are
expected going into Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  41  23  49 /  40   0   0   0
INL  10  41  19  49 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  15  46  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  17  46  22  55 /  80   0   0   0
ASX  20  43  23  53 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001-
     002-006>008.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ012-
     020-021.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JDS
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...JDS


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