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000
FXUS63 KDLH 081731
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Summary: Dry conditions for most today although there will be a
few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm over western areas at least
this morning. A cold front will enter the Northland Friday
afternoon and exit Saturday morning. There will be a chance for
showers/thunderstorms with the front. Dry conditions return Sunday
into early next week for most areas, although there is some
uncertainty into early next week with the track of an upper low.
Warmer temperatures will develop by early next week.

High pressure extended southwest into the Northland from Ontario
early this morning. There were some showers occurring in spots
over western portions of the Northland, roughly west of an Ely to
Aitkin line. A few weak echoes were near KMZH as of 0830Z but
looking at forecast soundings, the airmass is quite dry and we
suspect it`s either virga or some sprinkles. We expect drier air
to push further west through the day with any lingering showers
ending by afternoon. It`s possible some may continue from the
Brainerd Lakes region north to around International Falls but
model consensus is that the dry air will eventually win out. We
did bump up cloud cover over western areas though as the RAP shows
persistent mid-level moisture remaining through the day. There
will also be some lingering smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires
which may cause a milky appearance to the sky in spots. Off lake
winds will continue around Lake Superior but they area expected to
be lighter than the past couple of days.

A cold front will move into northern Minnesota on Friday and
continue south Friday night into Saturday morning. There will be a
chance for showers and thunderstorms ahead as well as behind the
front. Widespread significant rainfall is unlikely. An upper
trough will be over the region Saturday which keep chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast but again widespread significant
rainfall is unlikely.

The upper trough will develop into a closed low on Sunday over the
area and it will then move slowly south and east. There may be
some showers/storms over parts of the area, mainly northwest
Wisconsin that lingers into Monday. There are some model
differences on the track of the low so it`s possible shower/storm
chances may need to be expanded Monday.

Warmer temperatures moves in early next week with highs well into
the eighties for most areas Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

VFR conditions and winds under 10 knots are expected to prevail
through the period. Some VFR clouds begin working in overnight
ahead of a weak cold front, mainly in western areas. A few light
showers will be possible Friday morning at INL, but confidence in
coverage is low at this time and have kept out with this update.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Winds will be or become onshore today and be less than 15 knots.
Expect winds to become southwest tonight ahead of a cold front and
remain less than 15 knots but increase some on Friday with some
gusts around 20 knots developing along portions of the North
Shore. A few thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon into
Saturday. Winds will veer Friday night into Saturday, becoming
northeast on Saturday. Hazardous conditions may develop Saturday
due to increasing wind and waves from around Silver Bay to the
Twin Ports to around Sand Island.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  49  80  57 /   0   0  10  30
INL  75  53  82  54 /  20  20  40  30
BRD  76  55  82  59 /  30  10  10  20
HYR  77  43  82  55 /   0   0  10  30
ASX  70  41  82  52 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Melde