Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 210842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
342 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

At 330 AM, it was mostly cloudy across the Northland. Temperatures
ranged from the upper 50s to middle 60s with light winds. Patchy
fog was also found across the region, with some local visibility

The focus for today will be the continued chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Most model solutions indicate the potential for
shower and thunderstorm redevelopment during the day, especially
after some daytime heating. The best chance of precipitation
appears to be across the North Shore of Lake Superior, due to
expected surface convergence. Will continue with likely POP`s
across this area, with small chances away from that area. Highs
today will generally be in the 70s, but it will be cooler near
Lake Superior due to northeast to east winds.

The chance of showers and thunderstorms will gradually end
tonight, with skies becoming partly cloudy. Lows tonight will
generally be in the 50s.

On Sunday, partly sunny skies are expected across the region, with
highs ranging from the mid 70s to around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

Upper level and surface ridging will cover most of the forecast area
Sunday night. However, a vertically stacked closed upper/surface
low, and its cold front, will begin to affect the western third of
the area. This system will slowly drift through the Canadian
Prairies. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop/spread into
this area ahead of the front. Model differences in timing and
coverage of this activity is shown and used a blend as a result. The
front will move slowly across the region on Monday before
dissipating. Showers and a few storms are still probable along and
ahead of the front. On Monday night, what`s left of the front, is
gone during the evening as high pressure moves in behind it. Carried
some low pops in the evening to account for any leftover showers.
Model differences return on Tuesday as the next vertically stacked
closed upper low/surface low moves through the Canadian Prairies. Dry
in the morning as the high is nearby, then small pops in the
afternoon along the front to account for timing variability in the
models. The cold front moves through the region Tuesday night. The
aforementioned vertically stacked system slowly moves east Wednesday
through Friday. Pieces of vorticity will pass through the region
during this period, and bring some showers or storms into the
region, especially during the day.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

Lower vsbys and ceilings tonight mainly for BRD, HIB and INL. The
showers from earlier left behind a saturated atmosphere primed for
stratus and fog formation over northern and central MN. Also, due
to northerly winds, smoke from the fires in Canada will move into
MN increasing fog formation potential and restricting vsbys.
Conditions should begin to improve tomorrow morning.


DLH  75  57  72  56 /  50  20   0  10
INL  76  55  80  61 /  10   0   0  40
BRD  77  58  79  61 /  10   0   0  20
HYR  76  56  76  55 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  72  54  69  54 /  10  20  10   0




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