Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 132332
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
632 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

Scattered rain shower chances Friday into the weekend, with a warm
up into next week highlight the forecast.

Today has been warm with temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s. Deep
mixing has supported low relative humidity and wind gusts of 15-20
across the Northland. Combined with dry fuels, near critical fire
weather conditions will persist into the evening.

By Friday, we will start to see a surge of low level moisture which
is currently being depicted across the Central to Northern Plains in
ALPW and also scattered rain shower and thunderstorm activity across
eastern North Dakota this afternoon. This moisture axis will mainly
impact the western half of the CWA through Friday afternoon. Kept it
mostly a rain shower mention for now with rather weak instability.
Ahead of this moisture axis, near critical fire weather conditions
are possible across northwest Wisconsin on Friday where afternoon
relative humidity may fall to 20 to 25 percent.

For the weekend, temperatures will be warm with the warmest day
occuring on Sunday with temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
There will be daily 20-40 percent precipitation chance with impulses
embedded in the northern stream flow. Limited instability does
hinder the thunderstorm threat.

Precipitation chances will drop off towards the beginning of next
week as upper level high pressure may build across the region. This
would also support a continued warm up with temperatures well into
the 70s away from Lake Superior, and possibly a few lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Southerly winds should be generally less than 10 knots overnight,
with gusts 15-20 knots building late tomorrow morning. Some
scattered showers are possible late tomorrow afternoon at all
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 941 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

Winds will be out of the southwest 5 to 10 knots with waves less
than 2 feet for today across western Lake Superior. Little change
through tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  66  46  61 /   0  30  30  40
INL  43  69  44  69 /  10  40  40  30
BRD  47  64  46  68 /  10  50  30  30
HYR  41  68  44  63 /   0  20  30  40
ASX  45  70  45  63 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PA/Eagle
AVIATION...Levens/GSF
MARINE...PA/Eagle


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