Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 240828

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
328 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

A longwave trough extended from a closed low along the northern
Manitoba/Saskatchewan border through the Red River Valley into the
Southern Plains this morning. The trough will move over the
Northland today then east of the region tonight with a zonal flow
setting up on Tuesday. A surface low was centered in west central
Wisconsin and will also move east along with the upper trough
tonight. The 00Z Monday KMPX sounding had a PWAT value of 1.5
inches and PWATs of 1.2 to 1.4 will remain over eastern Minnesota
into Wisconsin this morning then will gradually decrease through
the day. Widespread rain was occurring over a good portion of
Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. MUCAPE values ranged from
100-500J/KG this morning but thunderstorms are not expected until
later this morning and more so this afternoon. Rain coverage will
be maximized this morning and will gradually diminish, but not
end, through the day. CAPE values will increase this afternoon and
will lead to scattered thunderstorms. Areas of fog were occurring
this morning and the visibility will improve through the day.
Additional rainfall today will range from a 0.4 inches to 1.25
inches over much of the area, with up to a quarter inch over our
far western areas. Highest amounts so far have been in portions of
Pine County which radar estimates around 2.5 inches around
Finlayson to just south of Willow River. Two day totals here may
approach 3.5 inches by this afternoon. No major issues are
expected since rivers were low prior to this rain and flash flood
guidance is still rather high. Some localized minor flooding will
be possible though.

Showers and storms will decrease tonight as will clouds. Expect lows
in the fifties for most areas.

A shortwave will arrive in the Northland Tuesday causing showers and
thunderstorms to redevelop through the day. We have chances highest
over northern Minnesota. The threat for severe storms will be low
partially due marginal deep layer shear values. Highs Tuesday
will be in the mid seventies to lower eighties. Winds are expected
to be westerly so even lakeside areas will see the warmer

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Above normal temperatures expected through the extended with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday night through
Friday. Do not expect any washouts at this point in time, but most
afternoons will have some showers and storms around.

A ridge axis will build from the Intermountain West late on Tuesday
into western portions of the Northern Plains on Wednesday. At the
surface a weak high will build over the region. This will bring
clear skies overnight and mostly sunny skies on Wednesday. Flow
aloft will be westerly/southwesterly, which will advect warm air
into the region. To the west a longwave trough will dig into the
western United States, while a cutoff low moves into the Pacific
Northwest. A shortwave will eject from the cutoff low and ride over
the top of the ridge axis into the Northern Plains Wednesday
evening, while a jet streak slides across the Northern Plains into
Ontario. This will bring enough lift along with instability over the
area to generate showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through
Thursday. Southern portions of the CWA will have the potential for a
few stronger storms with MLCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range
along with 0-6 km bulk shear around 40 knots during the afternoon
Thursday. The question will be the lift at this point in time with
the shortwave exiting.

Somewhat similar setup as Thursday on Friday with a shortwave
ejecting over the top of the ridge into the region Friday afternoon.
Once again there will be plenty of instability and shear, but the
question will be the lift. This will bring another shot for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect more shots for showers
and storms through the weekend as the cutoff lifts from the Pacific
Northwest into Central Canada. Again still not looking like any
washouts, but scattered showers and storms will be around.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

A mix of conditions ranging from LIFR to VFR through the
TAF period. Ceilings continue to remain low mainly in the LIFR/IFR
range through late morning. Fog which has persisted at DLH bringing
LIFR conditions spreads inland to affect HIB and HYR and potentially
BRD and INL. There will be a gradual improvement to VFR by Monday
evening. Scattered showers continue to move through the region
affecting all terminals. During the afternoon, isolated
thunderstorms become possible, however, highest confidence remains
over HYR and BRD at this time.


Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Northeast winds will weaken as the day progresses and gradually
become light out of the southwest as a broad low lifts into the
region. There are chances of showers and thunderstorms across
western Lake Superior this afternoon.

Showers and storms will come to an end tonight as the low lifts into
Ontario, but scattered storm chances will return Tuesday afternoon
as a disturbance moves in from the west. Southwesterly flow will
increase through the day Tuesday and may bring conditions hazardous
to small craft especially at the western tip of Lake Superior during
the afternoon.


DLH  69  55  77  56 / 100  40  40   0
INL  73  55  76  54 /  50  30  60  10
BRD  74  57  79  57 /  70  20  20   0
HYR  71  55  82  55 /  60  40  30  10
ASX  68  54  80  55 /  60  50  30  10




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