Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 201753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1253 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Quiet and dry conditions are expected through Monday morning,
then a chance of showers and isolated storms percolates over
inland portions of northwest Wisconsin Monday afternoon.

Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will be the main
influence for conditions across the Northland today through
Monday. Look for mainly sunny skies and relatively light winds.
High resolution models suggest a lake breeze will move inland over
the Arrowhead to the Twin Ports this afternoon, so have shaded
max temps a bit cooler. Still expect widespread temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s, with a thin band of upper 50s to low 60s
within a few miles of Lake Superior. With plenty of sunshine and
vegetation in an early stage of development, dried out humidities
and lowered dewpoints this afternoon. Even with recent rainfall in
our northern zones, I remain skeptical we`ll see much of a
moisture response this afternoon. High pressure remains in place
tonight, and with a very dry airmass in place, have lowered
minimum temperatures a few degrees below the bias-corrected
consensus. Lows will range from the low 30s to near 40 degrees.

A warm front will move northward across southern and central
Minnesota and the southern two-thirds of Wisconsin on Monday as
high pressure drifts farther east. A few showers and storms are
possible during the late afternoon hours over interior portions of
northwest Wisconsin, generally south of Highway 77. Highs will
trend warmer with readings in the low to upper 70s for most
locations. Spots within a few miles of Lake Superior can expect
upper 50s to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Monday night through Tuesday to be relatively quiet with a
surface ridge slowly sliding east of the area. A mid level wave
moving across the area on Monday and Monday evening will bring
showers to the area during the evening, but otherwise it will be
dry until another wave moves across Minnesota grazing the southern
portions of the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
associated features are relatively weak and depend on the location
of the 850mb baroclinic zone for placement, so have kept POPs on
the low side and expect some changes as we get closer to it.

An upper low over the northern Rockies Wednesday night is
expected to slide east over the area, flattening the weak ridging
that is over us earlier in the week. Models are consistent in
bringing a feature across during the latter half of the week, but
differ in timing, strength, and track of it, leading to some
significant sensible weather differences for Thursday through
Saturday. POPs have increased where models overlap the most, and
it is looking more and more like Friday will have our greatest
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will also be
cooler with clouds and precipitation holding them down, despite
having good warm air advection pushing into the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

High pressure will bring generally light winds, mostly clear skies
and quiet weather to the Northland throughout the TAF period.
There will likely be some increase in mid clouds across the south
on Monday morning, especially at KBRD. Have added some mid clouds
to that location. A few of the models even bring a chance of
showers in later in the morning but we are holding off for now.


DLH  68  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
INL  73  36  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  70  40  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  70  35  73  45 /   0   0  20  10
ASX  65  34  73  42 /   0   0  10  10




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