Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 240803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
303 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

A warm front from west central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin
will continue north tonight reaching far northern Minnesota by 12Z
Monday then it will continue north into Ontario later this morning.
Areas of fog, some dense, were occurring along the North Shore and
the visibility will gradually improve from south to north through
the morning. There were a few showers occurring over parts of the
region early this morning. An upper level trough with its axis
through Saskatchewan into Utah early this morning will move east
reaching the Northern Plains late today then the Northland on
Tuesday. This trough will aid in pushing a surface low and cold
front through the region today and tonight. Forcing will be strong
along the front and we expect an area of showers and a few
thunderstorms to occur along and ahead of it. We did slow the
progression of the showers/storms a bit but do bring a period of
high POPs today over northern Minnesota and tonight over far
eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Severe storms look
unlikely despite good forcing and shear as the instability remains
meager. Gusty southerly winds will occur today ahead of the front
and aid in boosting temperatures to around seventy in northwest
Wisconsin with highs in the upper fifties around International

The upper trough will be over the Northland on Tuesday and cause a
chance for more showers for most areas. It will be a cooler with
highs from the upper forties to middle fifties.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

A brief break in the rain chances mid-week then a cold front brings
another widespread chance for rain Wednesday night through Thursday.
A low chance for a round of light rain showers Friday, then dry
Saturday with temperatures falling as low as the 20s in parts of far
northern Minnesota. Chance for rain returns on Sunday. Temperatures
near to below normal through the rest of the work week into the
weekend. Highs as cool as the mid to upper 40s on Friday and
Saturday, about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Frost possible Friday
night if skies can clear out, with lows as cold as the mid/upper 20s
possible along and north of the Iron Range.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

Widespread MVFR or IFR cigs cover most of the terminals at the start
of the forecast. The exception being HYR, which was south of a
stationary front, and had VFR. VLIFR at DLH with FG advecting in off
of Lake Superior. The front will begin to lift north as a warm front
through the overnight. However, IFR cigs will continue for much of
the forecast. DLH should improve to MVFR by 08Z with the front
nearby. Gusty surface winds will occur at most sites through the
morning. LLWS is also possible, especially at HYR. A cold front will
approach the terminals from the West and begin to affect INL and BRD
around 12Z, then progress eastward. Light to moderate rain will
accompany the front. Some isold thunder is possible at INL and have
a vicinity mention by 09Z. The front will move past the MN terminals
by 03Z with the surface wind turning to the northwest. Cigs will
slowly improve thereafter.


DLH  68  43  54  41 /  80 100  40  20
INL  58  38  53  36 /  90  10  20  20
BRD  63  44  55  41 /  70  40  30  20
HYR  71  49  55  39 /  30  90  40  10
ASX  73  49  56  43 /  30 100  40  20


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-



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