Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 241143 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
543 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

Updated below for 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

Light snow, and perhaps some freezing drizzle, was occurring across
much of the Northland early this morning thanks to a shortwave on
the north side of a deeper upper low centered along the
Arkansas/Missouri border. An inverted surface trough also extended
north out of a surface low centered in Missouri. The trend today
will be for the coverage of the snow to decrease through the day
with it lingering over far eastern Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin. There may be some lake/terrain enhancement along the
North Shore but delta-T values are not very high. Soundings suggest
there may be a loss of ice leading to some freezing drizzle in
spots. Most areas will see less than an inch of snow today but the
North Shore will be a bit higher, from 1 to 3 inches. Another mild
day will occur with highs from 25 to 30 over far northern Minnesota
to 30 to 34 over northwest Wisconsin.

The low pressure system will be moving northeast today into tonight
making it to the southern Lake Michigan/southern Michigan area by
12Z Saturday. As this occurs, chances for light snow will increase
over north central Wisconsin tonight. Low level winds will back
tonight to northeast then to north on Saturday. Light snow will
decrease through the day Saturday but continue longest over northern
Wisconsin. Additional snow tonight into Saturday of 1 to 3 inches
will be possible from snowbelt of Ashland and Iron Counties south
through Price County. There will be plenty of clouds tonight keeping
temperatures in the teens to lower twenties in northern Minnesota to
the 25 to 30 over northwest Wisconsin and the adjacent Minnesota
counties. Saturday will again be mild with highs from 27 to 34.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

Continued above normal temperatures and a lack of organized systems
will be the theme for the extended.

A few light snow showers or wintry mix will persist for Ashland,
Iron and Price Counties Saturday night as a large low pressure
system drifts over Lake Huron. Dry conditions are then expected for
Sunday as weak high pressure builds in. Not expecting much in terms
of clearing with low-level moisture remaining trapped underneath the
high. Model agreement beyond Sunday is low with little run-to-run
consistency and an overall lack of organized systems. Weak
shortwaves may move through from time to time and may bring light
snow showers, but limited moisture will keep any accumulations
light. Tuesday into Wednesday stands the best chance for light
snow/wintry mix as both the GFS and ECMWF bring a low/shortwave
combo into the region. Before this feature can move out, a stronger
reinforcing shortwave pushes in to keep light precipitation chances
in place into Thursday and Friday. With general northwest flow
through much of the period, periodic lake effect snow showers will
also be possible, but with a lack of cold air aloft, anything that
does develop will be light. The best chances for this will be along
the South Shore of Lake Superior, but the North Shore may see low
chances as well ahead of the incoming shortwaves.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the period with highs
in the lower to middle 30s and lows in the teens and 20s above
zero.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 543 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

Another period of poor flying conditions expected as low clouds
and fog persist. Widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected today
with LIFR ceilings at KDLH, KHIB and KBRD late tonight for a time.
Visibilities will generally vary between MVFR and IFR due to BR
and patchy snow showers, but confidence is lower on the snow. KHYR
will see the best chances for snow showers, but confidence on
when they will occur precludes a period of prevailing conditions,
so treated with VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  26  31  22 /  70  30  10   0
INL  27  17  30  15 /  40   0   0   0
BRD  29  21  29  14 /  40  10   0   0
HYR  34  29  34  24 /  50  30  40  10
ASX  33  29  33  24 /  50  60  70  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for WIZ002-
     003.

MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJH
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...BJH
AVIATION...BJH


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