Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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880
FXUS63 KDLH 250229
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
929 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

A cold front moving through the area this afternoon and early
evening is producing an area of showers that is affecting the
northwestern portions of the forecast area. This is overlapping
with the warm air advection aloft, so there are still showers over
the tip of the Arrowhead which are moving out this afternoon.
Skies should clear over the area overnight, which should allow
temperatures to dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Thursday to be
quiet as well with slightly cooler temperatures than today in the
northwest surface low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

A high pressure system is set to bring dry and quiet conditions
across the area beginning Thursday night and persisting through
Friday. Temperatures will be in the mid 50`s across most of the
region with cooler conditions along Lake Superior. Relative
Humidity values for Thursday afternoon could be as low as 20
percent with northwest winds at 15-20 mph which could approach
near-critical fire weather conditions.

A mid-level trough out ahead of a potent low pressure system will
bring the next round of precipitation to the area on Saturday. The
models are beginning to show some agreement that a majority of the
precipitation will stay south of the Duluth CWA with some of the
southern tier counties receiving some light precip beginning as
snow and switching to a rain snow mix as temperatures climb during
the day on Saturday.

On the backside of that system a surface ridge will provide a
clear, but cool start to next week with temperatures in the low
50`s and upper 40`s. There could be a trough that moves through
Monday evening bringing another round of precipitation but there
still remains a general disagreement among the models as to
whether or not the low will develop.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all sites.
After the evening showers some VFR high level clouds will stick
around for part of the night, clearing out into early Thursday
morning. Mainly clear skies on Thursday but some late day mid/high
level clouds possible. Winds light out of the northwest overnight
around 5 knots, then strong northwest winds on Thursday with gusts
as high as 25 knots at some sites in northern Minnesota.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 929 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

No hazardous marine conditions expected for the next 48 hours.
Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots on Thursday, becoming northwesterly
at 10 to 15 knots Thursday night, not as strong around 10 knots on
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  64  36  54 /  20   0   0   0
INL  39  63  33  51 /   0   0  10   0
BRD  44  66  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  44  65  36  55 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  43  64  37  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...TY
AVIATION...JJM
MARINE...JJM



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