Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 190530 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1130 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

This afternoon a weak cold front was draped from North Dakota east
across far northern Minnesota and Lake Superior and continuing off
to the east. This weak cold front will slowly slide south tonight
as a shortwave dives through the cyclonic upper level flow from
it`s current position over the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border area
across northern Minnesota tonight and early Monday. This wave will
produce a band of snow that slides mainly across the central
portions of the forecast area. It should bring a broad swath of up
to a couple inches of snow. Once the cold front slides south of
Lake Superior and as the weak surface low moves through Minnesota,
northwest winds will set in over Lake Superior, and enhance
snowfall rates along the South Shore of Lake Superior starting
late tonight and continuing into Monday. There is enough delta t
from lake to 850mb, but the low level shear may be too strong, so
do not expect any extreme snowfall rates as we have seen earlier
this fall. Thus, have boosted snowfall amounts along the south
shore some, but only enough for an Winter Weather Advisory, and we
will have to see how it develops tonight. On Monday, this wave
continues to slide through the area, and northeast winds shift a
bit more northerly and we should get a more classing lake effect
set up into Ashland and Iron counties. Thus, while the snow will
be winding down everywhere else, it should continue into the
afternoon there. The moderate to heavy snowfall rates will develop
over northern Bayfield tonight, then as the winds turn spread into
Ashland and Iron counties towards morning and continue into
Monday, while gradually ending for Bayfield by late morning.
Rather than get too fancy with headlines, have decided to issue a
winter weather advisory for tonight through Monday for Bayfield
east to Iron county, emphasizing the northern portions of those
counties and the general timing within the forecast. Temperatures
through this period to be fairly close to guidance with the cloud
cover and frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

The cold weather will continue through the middle of the week, but
the second half will be more mild. There are not any signs of
significant winter weather for the foreseeable future.

Monday night looks cold. A surface ridge will move through the
Northland. There should be rapid cooling overnight because of the
period of light winds and clear skies, even if not for the whole
night because of how fast the ridge moves through the region.
Temperatures should plummet to near zero degrees across much of the
forecast area. Leaned on the coldest model guidance.

A weak Canadian Clipper will bring light snow through the Northland
Tuesday when it tracks from southern Manitoba to eastern Lake
Superior. There will be a bit more mild temperatures aloft in the
wake of the passing snow, yet possibly enough saturation aloft to
still produce light precipitation. Therefore, there is a low chance
the light snow could linger to a brief period of freezing drizzle
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most of the Northland will only get a
dusting or thin coat of snow, but the Arrowhead could get up to an
inch.

High temperatures will be in the teens and 20s Tuesday and
Wednesday, but we will soon see the return of more mild weather once
an area of high pressure passes by Wednesday. Southerly winds will
develop by later in the day Wednesday, and usher warmer air back
into the region. The 850 hpa temperatures will climb to a few to up
to several degrees above zero Celsius by Thursday. This will
translate to highs on Thanksgiving in the middle and upper 30s,
possibly higher, and the upper 30s and low 40s Friday. Cloud cover,
drizzle, light rain, and light snow will prevent it from getting
even warmer that it otherwise could with sunshine. The best chance
for this light precipitation is Friday and Friday night across the
Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin when a trough of low pressure
moves through the region.

Colder air will filter into the Northland Saturday, and there could
be some light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Light snow continues to fall across the Northland as a Clipper
system moves through the region. Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions
will continue due to this snow. Area webcams indicate snow has
started to accumulate in the last hour, which will continue
through the overnight hours. Snowfall accumulations are still on
track, ranging from a half inch near KBRD, up to two inches
possible at KDLH as of TAF issuance through Monday morning. The
Clipper will quickly move out of the region by late morning
Monday, but some lake effect snow and low stratus will linger over
KHYR through the morning hours as winds will remain from the
north and northeast. Then, high pressure will build into the
region from Manitoba, bringing VFR conditions and putting an end
to the lake effect by Monday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  14  20   2  23 / 100  30   0  40
INL   4  13   0  20 /  20   0  10  50
BRD  15  22   4  27 /  80  10   0  30
HYR  16  27   4  24 / 100  40   0  50
ASX  17  26   7  24 / 100  80  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM CST Monday for WIZ002>004.

MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM CST Monday for LSZ145>147.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM CST Monday for LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTS
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...JTS


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