Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 211740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1240 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

At 4 AM, skies were mostly cloudy across the western half of the
CWA, with another area of low clouds streaming off western Lake
Superior into the Head of the Lakes area. Scattered flurries were
found in the western CWA, as well as near Lake Superior.
Temperatures had fallen into the single digits in portions of the
Arrowhead, with 20s common in the west.

The focus for today through Thursday will be on weak and subtle
features with only small chances of precipitation. The best chance
for some light rain/snow will be in the western CWA today, with
generally quiet weather tonight and Thursday. The eastern portion
of the CWA should generally remain dry throughout the next two
days. Highs today should generally be in the 30s, with highs on
Thursday in the lower to middle 40s. There should be a bit more
sunshine on Thursday, as high pressure will be in place across the
western Lake Superior region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

A chance for light snow across parts of central and eastern
Minnesota Friday into Friday night, then a more widespread chance
for rain/snow early next week. Temperatures near to above normal
through the long term period with highs into the 40s much of next

On the synoptic scale a broad mid/upper-level ridge across the
Rockies and Great Plains will build east into the Midwest late-week.
An upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will transition
into a longwave trough axis as it moves east across the Great Basin
region this weekend. At low-mid levels a broad warm frontal zone
will build northeast across the Northern Plains and Mid-Mississippi
River Valley late-week into the early part of the weekend leading to
a chance for snow across north-central and east-central Minnesota,
with a mid-level shortwave trough transitioning from west to east
across the central Plains to Mid-Mississippi River valley resulting
in a deepening surface low over Kansas into Missouri Friday night
into Saturday. While the best large-scale lift will be further
south, portions of the Northland south of Highway 2 may see
snowfall, with the best chance for accumulating snow in the Brainerd
Lakes/Lake Mille Lacs region.

Southerly flow following the warm frontal passage will lead to a
milder temperature trend through the weekend into next week. Another
frontal boundary tracks east into the Upper Midwest late-weekend
into early next week as the aforementioned broad longwave trough
axis moves across the west coast. This synoptic-scale feature will
lead to a broad area of precipitation across the Great Plains and
Mississippi River Valley regions, including much of the Northland. A
mix of rain and snow expected due to near-freezing temps both at the
surface and aloft, with the ever-increasing late-March sun angle and
climatology for this kind of pattern leading to a slushy mix of rain
and snow being the most likely scenario at this time. Beyond the
early-week precipitation chances a mild pattern looks to take hold
through the rest of the week with low precipitation chances
returning towards the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

High pressure will be nearby through the forecast with VFR at
most terminals. The exception will be BRD, which will have MVFR
cigs through the forecast due to its proximity to an upper level
trof, developing/keeping these clouds around the BRD area.


DLH  32  17  42  21 /  10  10   0   0
INL  37  15  42  20 /  10  10  10   0
BRD  36  22  42  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  36  13  43  20 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  32  13  40  20 /   0  10  10  10




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