166
FXUS63 KDLH 080911
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
411 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Departing storms this morning, with the chance for more to
  develop in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.

- Temperatures and humidity increase for Wednesday into
  Thursday.

- Chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday across
  north central Minnesota, with general thunderstorm chances
  continuing into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Lingering instability within the back side of the trough is
helping to sustain some thunderstorms this early morning. These
storms will move off to the northeast later this morning.
Reinvigoration of instability later this morning into the
afternoon continues the chances for thunderstorms later this
afternoon, particularly across northwest Wisconsin. Some storms
could be strong, but severe weather is not expected due to some
slight capping aloft.

A high pressure will build in for Wednesday. Humidity and
temperatures will start to increase as flow switches to the
south in addition to a ridge moving east into the region. The
warmest day will be Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 80s
away from Lake Superior. Despite the high humidity from
dewpoints in the 60s, heat indices across the region will also
remain in the low to mid 80s with some isolated areas reaching
90 in the afternoon across north central Minnesota.

Wednesday night, as the warm air mass moves to the
Northland with a small trough aloft, some thunderstorms could
initiate across north central Minnesota. If any do develop, they
will be elevated due to a cap around 850 mb. As surface
temperatures warm throughout the morning, the cap will weaken
and storms will likely become more surface based by the
afternoon. The highest instability remains to our west, but we
will see MUCAPE of a 1500-2500 J/kg across much of Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. Severe weather will be possible throughout
the afternoon and evening, and all hazards will be possible.
Additionally, PWATs in the 90th percentile and weak flow aloft
will lead to slow moving storms with heavy rain, and some
localized flooding is possible across our CWA.

More storms are expected on Friday as a cold front moves
through, and depending on how long showers and storms linger
through the morning will determine whether instability can once
again increase for the afternoon and increase the threat for
severe weather. Chances for showers and storms will continue
through the weekend and into early next week as a couple more
troughs move over the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Lingering thunderstorms are moving across the Northland. INL
will see reduced visibility and ceilings as a cluster of storms
move over the terminal. After storms, fog is possible,
especially at sites that saw rainfall earlier today. HIB and INL
have already had reduced visibilities. Fog is not expected at
DLH and HYR, though there is up to a 20% chance for fog at DLH.
VFR conditions will return throughout the morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Northeast winds increase for the afternoon, especially at the
head of Lake Superior. Winds up to 15 kts are expected. Isolated
storms are possible over western Lake Superior, especially this
morning. Winds will decrease tonight and will remain below 15
kts for Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML