049
FXUS63 KDLH 290143
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
843 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several opportunities for severe thunderstorms through Sunday
  evening - mainly south of US 2.

- Elevated flooding threat due to heavy rainfall potential
  through early Monday - mainly south of US 2.

- Less active weather next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A boundary will set up just south of the Northland this
afternoon, becoming the primary focus for late-day severe
weather across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
While current radar shows a weakening Mesoscale Convective
System (MCS) across southern Minnesota, its associated outflow
boundary is pushing into northwest Iowa and eastern South
Dakota. We anticipate the low-level air mass will rapidly
recover in the wake of this convection, leading to rapid and
intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon. Even with
some disorganized directional shear shown in model soundings,
convective initiation is still expected. One thing to note is
that surface dewpoints have climbed into the low 70s across
northern Minnesota where less cloud cover has allowed
temperatures to climb into the 80s. Current suite of CAMS drives
the convection closer to the W to E boundary south of US 2, but
they may be getting the MCS influence a little off, so thinking
the threat does indeed extend northward to the International
Border for strong to severe storms. Influence from Lake Superior
should decrease the wind threat along the North Shore where
more stable air resides. Low LCLs and a little low level
curvature to the hodographs will maintain a tornado threat south
of US 2.

Initially, any storms that form will be elevated, making large to
very large hail the primary threat, potentially continuing into the
early evening. After 4-6 PM CT, storms are expected to become
surface-based, bringing a more combined damaging wind and large hail
threat. The main area of concern will remain south of Wisconsin
Highway 77 in northwest Wisconsin and east of the Brainerd Lakes
region, with storms generally moving to the east.

High-resolution models continue to suggest another storm complex
forming later this evening, potentially lasting into the overnight
hours. Additionally, a very moist airmass moving into northern
Wisconsin could trigger another round of heavy rainfall (1-3
inches). This is particularly concerning for areas that recently saw
2-4 inches of rain just a few days ago. Well be closely monitoring
this flooding threat and will issue headlines if confidence
increases in significant rainfall overlapping previously saturated
areas.


Another disturbance (vorticity lobe maxima) will move through the
region Sunday as a broad mid-level trough pushes eastward. This will
bring another round of thunderstorms on Sunday, primarily focused on
northwest Wisconsin during the afternoon and evening hours.

After a seasonable but humid weekend with high dewpoints, westerly
flow will enter the region Monday, bringing lower dewpoints and
seasonable temperatures. Expect continued scattered diurnal
thunderstorm chances mid to late next week. Looking ahead to the
holiday weekend, the pattern currently slightly favors a warmer
trend for northern Minnesota, with cooler flow over northern
Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 841 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Current consensus continues to be thunderstorms to just brush
the southern half of the forecast area this evening and
overnight. So didn`t go too hard on them impacting TAF sites.
Did hint at some FG potential after the storms pass. Generally
light southerly winds switching to southwest through the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Aside from thunderstorms from now through Sunday evening, winds
should be fairly light with decreasing wave heights.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe