Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 192344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
644 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Updating Aviation section below for the 00Z TAF update.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Overall quiet conditions are expected in the short term. Only areas
of concern are winds in the Twin Ports area this afternoon and some
light snow across the Brainerd Lakes area tonight into tomorrow.

Low pressure will move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the
Tennessee Valley this evening and tonight and will drag an inverted
trough from the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the same time,
high pressure will slowly drift east from northwestern Ontario to
James Bay. This will set up a pressure gradient across the region
with the low to the south. Northeast flow off of Lake Superior will
lead to winds gusting to 20-30 mph this afternoon and early evening
in the Twin Ports area and even extending inland to the Cloquet and
Solon Springs areas. This onshore flow may also lead to a few light
lake effect snow showers along the North Shore, but if anything were
to occur, no accumulations are expected. The winds off Lake Superior
will keep highs this afternoon on the cooler side, only reaching
into the 20s and lower 30s while areas further inland reach the
middle 30s.

Snow chances will increase across the western reaches of the area as
the inverted trough begins to work in. The best lift will remain
south of the CWA as seen in the Thaler QG omega, but moisture will
be on the increase and lead to light snow in the Brainerd Lakes
area. The high will usher in drier air closer to Lake Superior, so
any snow in the Twin Ports area will hold off until Tuesday morning
and should mainly be in the form on non-accumulating flurries. The
low will continue to push east on Tuesday and pull the trough out of
the region Tuesday afternoon, bringing an end to any lingering
snowfall in the region. Accumulations will be around 1/2 inch or
less in far western areas, but the southwest corner of Cass County
and Brainerd may see higher amounts to a 1.5 inches. Dry conditions
are then expected to return throughout the Northland by sunset
Tuesday evening. Lows tonight will generally be in the teens,
although parts of the Arrowhead may dip into the single digits with
a little less cloud cover expected. Winds will remain off of Lake
Superior on Tuesday, keeping areas neat the lake in the middle to
upper 20s with lower 30s inland.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Quiet conditions expected Tuesday night through Friday morning. A
chance of rain and snow returns Friday and Friday night, and
again Sunday through Sunday night.

Blocky upper-level flow will linger into the long range Tuesday
evening. Any lingering showers should remain to the west of the
forecast area and dissipate by late evening. The sub-tropical jet
will remain to our south Wednesday and Thursday, as a ridge
slowly builds over the Rockies. Skies will slowly clear as
subsidence moves into the Northland. An upper-level trough will
move onto the Pacific Coast Wednesday evening, nudging the ridge
into the Plains. A 300 mb jet streak is forecast to round the
base of the trough and move into the central Plains on Friday.
Increasing isentropic ascent and lee cyclogenesis will result in
precipitation over the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota on
Friday. A broad surface ridge will be located over northern
Ontario and the Great Lakes. A chance of rain and snow noses into
central Minnesota late Friday afternoon and spreads eastward
across much of the Northland Friday night. A mix of rain and snow
is favored, but accumulation will be light. A few inches of snow
accumulation are possible, with the highest chance of any
accumulation west of a line from Cass Lake to Aitkin to Pine City.

Another jet streak is forecast to develop near the base of the
upper trough as it moves toward the Upper Midwest Saturday night
and Sunday. Rain and show showers are possible once again, but
differences in the jet streak intensity, placement, and speed,
along with the location of moisture, keep precipitation chances
only in the chance range.

Temperatures during the period should remain near to slightly
below normal through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

VFR with gusty winds around Lake Superior. A weak system moves in
overnight with increasing chances for MVFR to the west and maybe
even IFR in snow showers. The system skirts around the area to the
south so largely left northern terminals VFR for the majority of
the TAF period though did drop ceilings late due to low confidence.


DLH  16  28  15  34 /  20  20  10   0
INL  14  33  12  38 /  20  20  10   0
BRD  19  32  14  38 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  15  33  14  39 /  10  20  10   0
ASX  14  29  14  34 /  10  10  10  10


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141-142-

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ143>145.



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