Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 150856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
356 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

The main area of focus for the short-term forecast period
continues to be the dry and breezy conditions for this afternoon
and early evening, leading to critical and near critical fire
weather conditions along the International Border. High pressure
will build into the Northland today, leading to abundant sunshine
across the area. Boundary layer mixing, per RAP and NAM model
soundings, both indicate mixing heights up to around 5 to 6 kft,
which should be sufficient to mix down some stronger wind gusts to
the surface. Winds will generally be from the southwest between
10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. With the gusty southwest
winds and dry vegetation, critical fire weather conditions are
expected, which means any fires could spread rapidly. Upgraded
the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Koochiching
county where the gusts are expected to be their strongest. Also,
decided to issue a Special Weather Statement for adjacent areas of
Koochiching county, and east over the Minnesota Arrowhead due to
the dry conditions, with gusts up to 25 mph possible. The abundant
sunshine will also lead to the development of a lake breeze,
which coupled with northeasterly on-shore flow, will lead to
cooler temperatures lakeside, with highs rising only into the
lower to middle 50s along the lake. Highs today should reach into
the lower to middle 70s away from the lake.

Tonight, a potent mid-level shortwave will graze just to our north
over Manitoba and southwestern Ontario Canada, bringing an
associated cold front along the International Border late tonight
and early Wednesday morning. Some small chances of rain showers
will result from this cold front, but very little in the way of
QPF over the Minnesota Arrowhead. Overall, much of the Northland
will remain under clear skies tonight, so decreased the minimum
temperatures a bit to account for better radiational cooling.
Eventually, the front will sag southward during the day Wednesday,
and bring more widespread chances of showers, but should remain
very small chances still given the amount of dry air near the
surface. Winds should be weaker Wednesday, with likely the
warmest temperatures for the week, with highs rising into the
upper 70s and lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

The upper level pattern will become more conducive to precipitation
during the first part of the long term period. A frontal boundary
will initially be the focus for showers on Wednesday night and
Thursday, with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms from
Thursday afternoon through Saturday evening. The ECMWF/GFS and GEM
are all in pretty good agreement concerning the evolution of the
system that will bring widespread rainfall to the region. The GFS is
faster in moving the precipitation out of the area on Saturday, with
the ECMWF and GEM a good bit slower. Widespread rainfall of up to an
inch will be common with this system, with some rainfall of 1 to 2
inches possible. High pressure will build in behind the front, with
dry weather from Sunday into Tuesday of next week. High temperatures
throughout the period are expected to range from the mid 60s to the
mid 70s, with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior at times.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

A front slowly sagging across the area as of issuance time has
produced showers across central MN into northwest WI. These showers
should stay away from the terminals, and as the front continues
south, skies are expected to clear as a high pressure ridge settles
into the area.  A low pressure center approaches the area from the
north late in the TAF period, increasing winds after 18z, which then
drop off again by 02z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions through the
TAF period.


DLH  59  45  80  43 /   0   0  10  20
INL  74  50  74  44 /   0  10  10  30
BRD  74  49  84  50 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  73  46  83  48 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  55  43  80  42 /   0   0  10  20


MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ010.



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