Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 221746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1246 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Updated Aviation section below for the 18Z TAF discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

High pressure overhead today will result in light winds and
clearing skies today. A few sprinkles are expected early this
morning from Moose Lake to the Twin Ports and along the US Highway
2 corridor in northern Wisconsin. Temperatures will reach the low
to upper 70s for most locations, but areas within a few miles of
Lake Superior will reach the upper 60s. A lake breeze is forecast
to move inland once again today in northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin. Southerly return flow on the western
periphery of the surface ridge will yield slightly higher
afternoon humidity for most locales than was noted yesterday. Have
dried out humidity values and dewpoints this afternoon below the
consensus and bias-corrected consensus blends. There still seems
to be too much moistening in the guidance during the afternoon.
The anomalous moistening seems to suggest the models producing
evapotranspiration which isn`t happening in the real atmosphere.

Quiet conditions continue as mid-level ridging continues. Lows
will be in the 40s to low 50s. A shortwave trough is forecast to
ride along the crest of the ridge on Wednesday and will introduce
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to our southern zones
during the late afternoon. The better chance of showers and
storms will hold off until Wednesday evening, when additional
forcing for ascent arrives thanks to a developing low-level jet.
Dried out humidity values when compared to the consensus and bias-
corrected consensus blends.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Wednesday night through Friday we go through an extended period
of warm air advection with increasing moisture availability and
periodic shortwave to kick of rounds of showers and thunderstorms
that roll across the forecast area. At upper levels, an upper
level ridge over the area on Wednesday evening slowly slides east
and weakens, allowing a stronger shortwave to move from eastern
Montana up and over the top of the ridge across Ontario through
Friday. Have maintained at least chance pops for much of this
period with some chances for thunderstorms embedded in the
precipitation. Because of the plume of warm moist air that will
stream up into the area during this time range temperatures will
be on the warm side, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Precipitation chances continue Friday night through Saturday and
into Sunday, but with the upper low just to our northeast, cloud
cover will be higher, limiting daytime heating and producing
cooler high temperatures and reducing the potential for
thunderstorms somewhat.

Monday and Tuesday an upper level ridge builds into the area,
bringing a period of drier weather with near normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites through
most of the period with light and variable winds. MVFR conditions
or lower are possible at HYR tomorrow morning, but went with MVFR
for now due to low confidence.


DLH  76  50  79  54 /  20   0  10  50
INL  79  48  83  57 /   0   0   0  30
BRD  76  52  81  59 /   0  10  20  60
HYR  76  50  82  60 /   0   0  20  50
ASX  76  48  80  51 /  20   0  10  30




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