092
FXUS63 KFGF 072335
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe risk, level 2 out of 5 continues into this evening.
Damaging wing gusts, hail to golf ball size and an isolated
tornado are the main severe threats...

- A severe risk, level 1 out of 5 is possible Wednesday
  afternoon into Wednesday night...

- There is an 80 percent chance for thunderstorms across the
  area Thursday into Thursday night. Storms may be strong to
  severe...

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

We continue to have strong to severe thunderstorms impacting
portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota this
evening. Some of these have been supercellular producing large
hail. Latest report was from the Severe Thunderstorm over
northeastern Grand Forks county moving into northwestern Polk
county of quarter size hail in the city of Manvel. Overall the
environment still remains conducive for strong to severe
thunderstorms through this evening, but we are starting to see a
downward trend in intensity of the current storms. Low and Mid
level lapse rates are slowly diminishing and CAPE is trending
downward in parts of the area. Ramsey, Cavalier, and Towner
counties have been removed from the Severe Thunderstorm Watch
and the rest of the counties in the watch remain through 10pm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...Synopsis...

Storms developing along and ahead of a frontal boundary moving
through the area this afternoon and evening with severe activity
already occuring and expected through the evening hours. Frontal
boundary moves east into Tuesday with high pressure building
into the region. Another weak shortwave will move through the
area mid-week bringing another round of storm chances and
potential isolated severe storms before a larger storm system
impacts the area Thursday into Friday. This system will bring
more widespread chances for storms and severe weather.

...Severe risk, level 2 out of 5 continues into this evening.
Damaging wing gusts, hail to golf ball size and an isolated
tornado are the main severe threats...

Storms continue to form along and ahead of the cold front
stretching from north to south across northeast ND. Instability
is decent, with deep layer shear in the 35-45kt range. Initially
have the chance for an isolated tornado near the boundary and
closer to the low across the northern forecast area where low
level shear is stronger and greater low level
instability/stretching, etc. A transition to more hail/wind is
expected through the evening and as the front pushes east.

Previous Discussion...
...Wednesday Severe Risk...

Wednesday late aftn/eve will see a short wave move ESE across
the area. The airmass advecting north into the area, esp central
ND, is more unstable with MUCAPES over 3500 j/kg and high temps
in central ND fcst to be low 90s. 0-6 km shear is 30kts or less
though. SPC did insert a marginal risk for eastern and central
ND due to instability being quite high and weak wave moving ESE
thru the area.


...Thursday into Thursday night....

Thursday afternoon and night has for the last several days been
highlighted as the most unstable day in the 7 days. MUCAPE
values from ensembles (EC/GEM,GFS) from 00z runs all over 3500
j/kg with likely over 4000 j/kg. But issue is placement of 500
mb system with this and placement of 500 mb jet. Model
continuity has been poor. Thus question is with all the
instability will there be enough forcing and shear aloft to
generate a higher end severe threat. That remains to be seen.
Given the conditions fcst all hazards would be possible, though
wind/hail favored vs tornado as unsure of any surface boundary
location. We also have some sfc CIN to overcome. But highs are
forecast to be low 90s and dew pts low 70s. If either one can
over achieve that will add to instability.

For Friday and Saturday forecast hangs on development of 500 mb
low and placement and track. GFS been all over the place in the
last 24 hours with ECMWF the most consistent in having upper low
in the area Saturday with persistent area of showers and
t-storms near and just east of the wave over much of the area
Friday. Slower ECMWF would keep rain chance longer into Saturday
vs NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Thunderstorms continue to move toward GFK this evening, with
lightning and erratic winds possible through 2z. DVL, TVF, FAR,
and BJI will be an isolated chance for thunderstorms through
the 4z timeframe as our environment slowly improves. Around 6z
conditions clear out, with winds shifting toward the north and
SCT clouds remain. There is a potential for overnight fog, but
chances remain low at this time. VFR conditions post 6z for all
TAF locations. Skies clear out around 18z through the end of the
TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...Spender