Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 211843

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
243 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over eastern
Colorado with a shortwave in the Pacific NW and troughing in New
England. Ridging is across the sern U.S. and across the upper Great
Lakes. The ridge remains over the upper Great Lakes while the closed
low goes into the lower Mississippi River valley 00z Mon. Quiet
weather will continue and made very few changes to the going

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 451 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2018

Models suggest that a split flow pattern will prevail with quiet
weather into early next week over the northern Great Lakes as sfc
and mid level ridging between the branches result in dry
conditions with plenty of sunshine. Northern stream shortwave
troughs and associated sfc troughs will bring at least light pcpn
chances back into the area from Tue into early Wed and again Thu.
Temps will slowly climb and remain above seasonal averages and
then drop back from Wednesday and especially by Friday.

Sunday, with the sfc ridge over the area sunshine and mixing through
850 mb temps around 2C will result in temps into the upper 50s
to around 60. Much cooler readings are expected along the Great
Lakes with mainly in the mid 40s to around 50.

Monday, increasing srly flow and WAA will push temps into the upper
50s to lower 60s, with also much warmer conditions compared to the
weekend as downslope offshore will prevail. overnight min temps will
also stay at or above freezing both Sunday night and Monday night.

Tue-Fri, models were in general agreement that pcpn chances will
increase by late Tue into Tue night as a shrtwv moves into the
region. Since the GFS/GEFS/GEM have trended toward lower QPF amounts
with this feature, and ECMWF shows little if any pcpn, fcst
continues to mention only chance POPs. Rain mixing with or changing
to snow would be expected as colder air moves in behind the
trough/front. After a brief warmup Thu, another stronger shrtwv is
expected to move in late Thu into Thur night that will likely bring
a better chance for rain mixing with snow.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018

VFR conditions with light winds will continue to prevail through
this TAF period at all three terminals.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 243 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018

Winds will remain less than 15 knots through most of the period.
Main exception would be northwest winds over 20 kts possible later
Tue into Tue night.  Another period of strong wind will be late Thu
into Thu night up to 30 knots in wake of cold fronts moving across
Lake Superior.

Issued at 243 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018

Snowpack will be melting into early next week under warming with
temperatures above normal. Mostly sunny days through Monday will
strongly aid the melting. With nighttime temps falling below
freezing and dewpoints likely remaining low, only a gradual increase
in melting/runoff should occur tonight. Sunday into Tuesday, min
temps may not fall below freezing, increasing runoff potential,
though dewpoints will likely remain low, keeping melting of snow
slower than would otherwise occur. Fortunately, there will be no
pcpn this weekend, and pcpn which occurs Tue/Wed should be on the
light side as a cold front passes. A temporary cool down following
the frontal passage will then slow down the ongoing snow melt.
Overall, conditions don`t suggest any significant concerns with the
snow melt over the next 7 days. While melting will likely be
relatively controlled given the forecast, rivers will begin to
respond late this weekend and minor flooding is quite possible at
some point down the road on the usual rivers that experience spring

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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