Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 191032

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
632 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

High pressure will build across the region today bringing an
extended period of dry weather and below normal temperatures through
the end of the week.


High pressure will build across the region today in the wake of a
weak backdoor cold front passage early this morning. Any lingering
low cloud cover south of Lake Ontario will scatter out with diurnal
heating and mixing today, leaving mostly sunny skies this afternoon.
Temperatures will run 5 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday with a
light northeast wind in place.

Tonight will be another chilly night given the dry air, light winds
and lack of cloud cover under the surface high. Expect overnight
lows in the teens across western NY, to near zero in the North


Tuesday through Wednesday a pair of mid level shortwaves will move
slowly east across the central Appalachians, eventually phasing into
a closed mid level low off the Mid Atlantic coast later Wednesday.
This will support a deepening surface low well offshore, with any
direct impacts remaining along the immediate eastern seaboard from
southern New England into the Carolinas. The latest 00Z model
guidance does bring the mid level low a little closer than past runs
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Mid/high clouds to the north of the
system will increase across our region during this time frame, with
the thicker clouds found closer to the PA state line. Northeast
boundary layer flow will also produce some lake effect clouds south
of Lake Ontario at times, but a steep inversion based at around 4K
feet will prevent any lake effect precipitation.

Wednesday night and Thursday this system will evolve into a fairly
strong low over the North Atlantic and move into the Canadian
Maritimes. All the direct impacts will again remain well east of the
area, with persistent north to northwest winds supporting an
increase in lake effect and upslope clouds. Lake induced equilibrium
levels do rise to around 5K feet later Wednesday night and Thursday,
however dry low levels and a lack of dendritic crystal growth in the
cloud bearing layer should largely prevent lake effect snow showers.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the period with
surface high pressure parked across northern Ontario and Quebec
providing a constant supply of late season cold air. Highs will be
similar each day from Tuesday through Thursday, with mid 30s at
lower elevations and upper 20s to lower 30s on the hills and east of
Lake Ontario. Lows will be in the 20s on the lake plains and teens
across the Southern Tier valleys and Tug Hill region.


Thursday night and Friday low pressure will continue to move slowly
northeast through the Canadian Maritimes, maintaining northwest flow
across the eastern Great Lakes and New England. This will support
some lake effect and upslope clouds, but the cold airmass continues
to look too shallow to support any lake effect snow showers.

The forecast becomes more uncertain by next weekend, with a wide
spread in operational and ensemble model guidance with the track of
the next system. The 00Z GFS is farther south and weaker with a
surface low tracking through the lower Ohio Valley to the Mid
Atlantic States, leaving our region mainly dry Saturday and Sunday.
The ECMWF and Canadian GEM are farther north and stronger with the
surface low, tracking it across PA and spreading accumulating snow
into our region. GEFS and Canadian GEM ensembles offer little
direction with a wide variety of possible solutions. Given the model
uncertainty, have continued with chance POPS for late Saturday
through Sunday.

Temperatures will remain below normal through next weekend, with
highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s.


Widespread VFR flight conditions are expected today and tonight,
with light northeast winds.

Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR.


High pressure will ridge into the region today bringing tranquil
conditions to start the week. Strengthening northeasterly winds
later Tuesday through mid week will likely yield small craft
advisory conditions as a low pressure system passes by to our south.





NEAR TERM...Church
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
MARINE...Church is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.