622
FXUS61 KBUF 100000
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing cloud cover continues across western New York this
afternoon with scattered showers moving in from the west across
Lake Erie. There is a low risk for a thunderstorm developing
later this afternoon with a frontal boundary just off to our
south. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday
as the frontal boundary lifts north across the region. Drier
weather returns for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Latest GOES imagery shows upper level cloud cover spread across
much of western NY with thunderstorms moving into portions of
the Mid-Atlantic associated with a shortwave passing through to
our south. Farther north along the trough closer to the mid-
level low, thunderstorms have developed across central MI and
southern Ontario. These storms will continue to move east
through late this afternoon and evening bringing scattered
showers and an isolated thunderstorm to western NY. Overall
environment is limited that will likely see most of these storms
dissipate as they are reaching western NY, but latest RAP
analysis shows MLCAPE values slightly over 500 J/kg that could
support a storm to develop this evening with the shortwave
passage.

Isolated showers from remnant convection further west may
linger through Thursday morning as the mid-level low continues
to deepen over the Ontario/Quebec border. As the wave begins to
lift northeastward, additional shortwave energy will begin to
approach the lower Great Lakes with showers and thunderstorms
returning to the forecast for Thursday afternoon. Latest SPC Day
2 Outlook highlights a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon with primarily a wind threat. MLCAPE will be
1000-1500 J/kg inland from any lake breeze boundaries that
develop, but 500mb winds of 25-30 kts will keep shear profiles
and organized convection rather limited. Fairly unidirectional
winds through the column would support vertical transport of
momentum from aloft where a few stronger storms could produce
gusty downburst winds, especially from the Finger Lakes region
eastward towards north-central NY through the early evening
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Heading into Thursday night, a mid-level trough axis will lie across
the eastern portions of New York State before pulling northeast
across New England by Friday morning, which in turn will directly
correlate to pushing the cold front to further exit the area
eastward into New England and allow for surface high pressure to
fill in across western and north central New York. A mid-level ridge
will then build east across the area Friday, before the axis of the
ridge builds further east across New England Saturday. This all
being said, expect mainly dry weather Thursday night through
Saturday as high pressure tracks overhead.

In addition to the calm quiescent weather to close out the end of
the week, a southerly breeze will support warmer temperatures to
advect into the region to support a near normal day on Friday with
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s before warmer temperatures
arrive Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 80s with a few of the
typically warmer locations near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will push east Saturday night and Sunday, as the
next trough dives southeast across the upper Great Lakes and into
the central Great Lakes. Within this longwave trough, a shortwave
will ripple through and lift northeast across the province of
Ontario Sunday, ahead of the longwave`s trough axis sliding east
across the eastern Great Lakes Monday and Monday night. As such, a
surface low traversing across northern Canada Sunday and Monday,
will support a warm and cold front to pass across the area,
introducing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Mid-level ridging will then push across the eastern Great Lakes
Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly dry weather expected during the
middle of the work week.

Otherwise, temperatures are anticipated to be above average for the
end of the weekend and into the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found. A mid level
shortwave trough will advance from just north of the Central Great
Lakes to near Lake Ontario/southern Ontario tomorrow and this
feature along with remaining instability will bring a few overnight
showers that will increase in number tomorrow with daytime heating
and the closer presence of height falls aloft. Storms tomorrow will
be more prevalent upon lake breeze boundaries, including near the
KJHW terminal by early afternoon.

The other concern will be areas of fog redeveloping tonight. The
boundary layer is slightly drier to start for the Southern Tier, and
fog will likely be more limited at KJHW than last night. Fog is also
possible east of Lake Ontario, especially in areas of any
earlier in the night convection.

Outlook...

Thursday night...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
restrictions possible.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night through Monday...A chance of showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light winds and sub-advisory conditions over Lakes Erie
and Ontario through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to pass over Lake Erie and western Lake
Ontario through this evening. Isolated showers and storms
continue through Thursday morning with another round Thursday
afternoon that could lead to gusty winds and choppy conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Brothers/TMA
NEAR TERM...Brothers
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Brothers