


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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702 FXUS61 KBUF 290702 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 302 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Pleasant weather expected through Monday morning as a surface high builds across the region. The next round of showers and thunderstorms will return for Monday afternoon into Tuesday as the next surface low and cold front cross the region. Near to above normal temperatures are expected for most of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cooler and drier air is filtering into the region behind an earlier passing cold front. A sfc high will build into the region through the day today. Lingering clouds will clear from northwest to southeast as drier air pushes into the region this morning. Some patchy valley fog will be possible, but should be limited with the incoming drier airmass. Temperatures this morning will dip to the low 50s to near 60. Winds will be light, around 5 mph or less inland from the lakes, and 10 mph or less near/over the lakes. Today, the sfc high will slide east across the area, this will provide for a pleasant late June day with dry weather and mostly sunny skies. Afternoon maxTs will be in the low to mid 80s for WNY and low to upper 70s for areas east of Lake Ontario. Lower Td values will make for a comfortable day. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus can`t be ruled out, but should be limited with the sfc high centering right over the areas. Tonight, dry weather continues as the sfc high slides to the east. Clouds wil increase some from the southwest as a warm front approaches the region Monday morning. Warm air advection will start as the sfc high slides to the east and as a weak south to southwest flow develops. Temperatures for the night will be warmest across far WNY only down to the mid 60s and cool to the east where less warm air advection will occur, down to the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Monday, a ridge of high pressure surface and aloft will drift towards the east coast. Lingering subsidence and dry air will continue to bring dry weather to the eastern Great Lakes for much of the day, with chances for a few showers and thunderstorms increasing later in the afternoon across Western NY. There will be a brief return to heat and humidity, with the heat index topping out near the bottom end of Heat Advisory criteria (95F) across the warmer low elevation counties along the south shore of Lake Ontario into the Finger Lakes and Central NY. Monday night through Tuesday, a well defined mid level trough and associated cold front will move east across the eastern Great Lakes. Quality forcing for ascent and deep moisture will combine to produce a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with rain coverage peaking Monday night through early Tuesday. The rain will end from west to east later Tuesday with the passage of the cold front. Unfavorable diurnal timing of the best forcing may limit severe weather potential, although some storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Wednesday through Friday, a broad mid/upper level trough will become established across the Great Lakes and New England. This will bring an end to the high humidity, with seasonable summer temperatures and comfortable dewpoints settling into the region. It will be mainly dry, although a stronger shortwave moving through the broad mid level trough may produce a chance of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday. Saturday, the next mid level shortwave and associated weak cold front will move into the central Great Lakes and southeast Canada. This feature will bring a gradual increase in rain chances later Saturday as it approaches, with better rain chances arriving by Sunday as the front slowly crosses the eastern Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Clouds will continue to clear out from northwest to southeast behind an earlier passing cold front. Some stubborn clouds will continue east of Lake Ontario for a few more hours, but otherwise, mainly VFR through tonight as a surface high builds across the region. Some patchy fog may be possible through the morning across the area, including at JHW, but should be limited with drier air moving in behind the earlier passing cold front. Winds will remain light out of the northwest to west and then shift to the southwest and south later today into tonight, becoming variable at times as well tonight. Outlook... Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly from late afternoon through Monday night. Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly early. Wednesday...VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible. && .MARINE... High pressure building into the region today will result in light winds through Monday morning. Waves are expected to remain below a foot. Winds/waves are expected to remain below SCA levels through mid week, though some choppy conditions will be possible after Monday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...Hitchcock AVIATION...SW MARINE...SW