Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 281017
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
617 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions will return to the Eastern Great Lakes region
through Wednesday as high pressure passes through. The chance for
soaking rainfall returns Thursday into Friday as the remnants of
Alberto move through the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning, mainly clear skies across western NY with light
winds in place allowed for some fog formation mainly across the
western Southern Tier where soaking rain fell in the last 24 hours.
Otherwise, some areas of fog are also over the eastern Great Lakes
with dew points higher than the lake surface temperatures, although
light winds continue to confine this fog to staying over the lakes.
This fog will quickly burn off this morning with sunrise.

Today, a weak surface trough will slide southeastward across the
region, from WNY in the morning to central NY by the afternoon. A
few isolated showers are possible as this passes this morning. As
diurnal heating helps build instability along this boundary,
convective initiation is likely to occur in the vicinity of the
Finger Lakes before developing further into central NY. Thus much,
if not all, of the forecast will miss out on any rainfall or
thunderstorm activity today. Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny, warm
and humid Memorial Day as temperatures push into the mid to upper
80s south of Lake Ontario and to around the 80 degree mark for the
Eastern Lake Ontario region.

Tonight, light winds and mostly clear skies with continued low-level
moisture hanging around will support some more areas of fog
developing. This will likely be contained to the typical areas
of the western Southern Tier and the Eastern Lake Ontario region
near the Black River Valley. Lows will be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday a weak backdoor cold front will move south of the area into
PA as high pressure builds into central Quebec. The front has very
little in the way of large scale support or deep moisture, so expect
nothing more than a modest area of clouds along front. Low level
northeast flow will bring drier and somewhat less humid air into the
region, but only very weak cold advection will still allow for above
normal temperatures. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s along and
south of the NY Thruway, and upper 70s to around 80 east of Lake
Ontario. An increasing northeast breeze will keep the south shore of
Lake Ontario much cooler.

High pressure will settle across northern New England Tuesday night,
with dry air and subsidence reaching into the eastern Great Lakes.
This will bring a dry night, with some increase in mid/high clouds
especially across the Southern Tier and western NY. Dry weather will
continue through the bulk of Wednesday as high pressure anchors
along the New England coast, and an upper level ridge remains in
place over NY and PA. Mid level clouds will continue to increase
from southwest to northeast ahead a large area of moisture moving
into the Ohio Valley. A few light showers may move into the western
Southern Tier late in the day. Increasing southeasterly winds will
allow the lake plains of Western NY to reach the mid or even upper
80s with an added boost of downslope flow, with lower 80s elsewhere.

Our attention then turns to the remnants of Alberto. Model guidance
remains consistent in taking the remnant low center across Michigan
Wednesday night, and Lake Huron Thursday. The stronger forcing and
deepest moisture will stay well west of our area near the center of
the low track, with a broad/diffuse area of deep moisture and
showers moving into Western NY Wednesday night, and the rest of the
area by Thursday. PWAT will briefly approach 2 inches, but despite
the high available moisture the lack of organized synoptic scale
forcing and lack of a low level frontal zone will likely keep
rainfall fairly light Wednesday night through Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday night and Friday the remnants of Alberto will interact and
merge with a northern stream trough, creating a mid level closed low
over the Upper Great Lakes. This closed low will then slowly drop
back south across our region, reaching the Upper Ohio Valley or
Northeast by Saturday depending on model of choice. This will
produce an extended period of unsettled weather late this week and
next weekend. The remnants of Alberto will leave behind a large pool
of high PWAT values, running 1.5-1.75 inches Friday and Saturday.
Stronger forcing associated with the upper level low and more
diurnal instability will allow for a better chance of locally heavy
rainfall Friday and Saturday with any convection that develops.

Temperatures will trend downward next weekend as the upper level low
crosses the area, with cooler air moving into the Great Lakes and
New England in its wake. Expect highs in the 70s by Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread VFR will prevail today. The only exception will be where
some areas of fog early this morning, mainly over the western
Southern Tier where skies have clear and rain fell in the last 24
hours. This has resulted in typical river valley fog that has made
its way into KJHW. Areas of fog may also develop over the eastern
Great Lakes, but light flow should mainly keep this fog contained to
over the lakes. Once the fog burns off later this morning, expect
widespread VFR to prevail with light winds.

Areas of fog may redevelop again tonight with KJHW and KART most
susceptible to at least some temporary MVFR/IFR conditions.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday and Friday...MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of fog are possible on the lakes this morning and again
tonight. Otherwise, high pressure building in across the region will
maintain light winds and minimal wave action on the water through
mid-week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Church
NEAR TERM...Church
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Church
MARINE...Church



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