Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 200733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
333 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

High pressure centered over northwest Ontario with a ridge extending
down through the Great Lakes will maintain dry and chilly weather
through the end of the week. Temperatures will begin to rise by
early next week as the deep trough over the Northeast begins to move
off the east coast.


IR satellite imagery showing clear skies across almost the entire
region, with just some thin/high cirrus near the PA state line. This
will continue to be the case through the early morning hours.

Surface high pressure will remain centered over northwest Ontario
and James Bay today and tonight, with a ridge extending down into
the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a well defined mid level circulation and
associated surface low will cross the central and southern
Appalachians, supporting secondary cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic
coast later today and tonight. All of the sensible weather
associated with these systems will remain south and east of our
area. The northern edge of light snow will make its closest pass to
our region later tonight, but model consensus keeps this south of
the NY/PA border with dry low level northeast flow producing plenty
of sub-cloud evaporation.

Mid/high clouds will gradually increase later today and tonight
especially along and south of the Thruway corridor, with the
thickest clouds near the NY/PA border. Northeast flow off Lake
Ontario may also support a few patches of lake effect clouds tonight
across Western NY.

High temperatures will run close to 10 degrees below average, with
highs in the lower to mid 30s in most areas. Lows tonight will be
held up to some extent by increased cloud cover and a northeast
breeze. Expect lows in the mid 20s on the lake plains of Western NY
and around 20 in the Southern Tier Valleys, with low to mid teens
for the North Country.


For mid-week, a low pressure system will pass south and then east of
the region while a Canadian high pressure system remains anchored
south of James Bay. This configuration will keep dry and cool
weather in place, with a stiff northeast wind Wednesday becoming
northwest Thursday as the low tracks off the New England coast.
While the precipitation shield from the low pressure system may
approach the NY/PA border Wednesday, the northeast flow of dry air
from the high pressure system will limit impacts across our region
to a mid and high level broken to overcast cloud deck Wednesday.
This will be followed some some increasing low-level moisture and
colder temperatures supportive of low-level lake enhanced cloudiness
south of Lake Ontario Thursday. Moisture should be limited enough to
keep the forecast mainly dry through the day Thursday, with only the
possibility of a few flurries south of Lake Ontario. High
temperatures will remain the 30s each day, with nightly lows in the


A strong area of Canadian high pressure will expand southward across
the Great Lakes region Friday through the weekend and into the start
of next week. Meanwhile another low pressure system will develop in
the lee of the Rockies, with the model consensus now solidly keeping
storm south of the region Saturday and Sunday before tracking off
the Atlantic coast. Thus, expect mainly dry and cool conditions to
persist across the region with highs in the 30s and nightly lows in
the 20s, with the potential for increasing sunshine through the


Surface high pressure will remain in place across northern Ontario
and James Bay through tonight, with a ridge extending down into the
Great Lakes. This will provide dry weather and VFR to our region.
Low pressure will move across the central and southern Appalachians
today, with a secondary low developing off the Mid Atlantic coast.
Some high clouds will stream north across our region from these
systems, with the thicker cloud cover near the PA state line. Low
level northeast flow may allow a few patches of lake effect clouds
to develop off Lake Ontario tonight across Western NY. If this
materializes, some spotty MVFR CIGS are possible.

Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.


Low pressure will move across the central and southern Appalachians
today, with secondary cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic coast later
today. This ocean low will then move slowly northeast and offshore
of the Mid Atlantic and New England Wednesday through Thursday. The
pressure gradient between this low and high pressure over northern
Ontario will produce moderate northeast winds on Lake Ontario and
Lake Erie, leading to a several day period of Small Craft Advisory

Additionally, a significant portion of Lake Erie from Ripley to the
Buffalo Harbor remains ice covered. With strengthening northeasterly
flow this ice pack will likely shift and break apart becoming a
hazard to anyone that might try to venture out onto the ice.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT
         Wednesday for LEZ040.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM
         EDT Thursday for LOZ042>044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
         Wednesday for LOZ030.



NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Church
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