Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 201716
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High pressure across the area led to quiet weather this morning
across the area. Temperatures across northern counties were
dipping close to record lows for the date. A few high clouds were
the only thing identified on infrared satellite this morning.
These clear skies will set the stage for a great Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Main forecast concern for the short term are the temperatures. It
appears that most guidance is too low for today as far as highs
go. Yesterday, we were warmer than forecast, likely due to the
full sun and deft of snow. As a result, brought high temps in line
with some of the warmest guidance. When today is over, wouldn`t be
surprised to see temps warmer than forecast. Tonight, clouds will
increase as SW H5 flow brings warmer air and more moisture into
the area. Today will definitely feel like spring across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The long term will contain no winter weather.
Though the over all flow will not favor above normal conditions, we
are disconnected from cold air through late week. Over the weekend,
a large Canadian high pressure will be centered the Great Lakes.
This will bring very light easterly flow to the area, with plenty of
dry air to keep our forecast dry, as any light qpf indicated by the
GFS is most likely going to be virga from mid clouds only. The east
winds around 10 mph or less through Monday will allow for the slow
modification of the air mass to continue. Thus, highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s are expected, Saturday through Sunday, with lower
to mid 60s for Monday and Tuesday.

By Tuesday, the low pressure to the south will slide east into the
southeastern CONUS, which will allow for the stagnant upper flow to
become more active in northwest flow. Though moisture is
questionable, both the GFS and GEM support chance pops for rain
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.  However, the ECMWF shows that
wave starved for moisture, and less energetic.

The blended solutions incorporate the wetter GFS and GEM enough that
highs Wednesday under clouds and rain chances are held to the mid to
upper 50s. Thursday and Friday are both forecast to in the lower to
mid 60s again. Thus, the entire extended supports sensible weather
vastly more springlike than any time thus far in April this year.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High pressure over the Great Lakes will provide light winds and
VFR conditions with only high level cloudiness across the region
tonight through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1018 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The latest forecast has the Cedar River at Conesville cresting
below flood stage on Saturday. Thus the flood watch that was in
effect for that forecast point has been cancelled.

Area tributary rivers are forecast to continue rising at many
sites over the next several days due to snowmelt and recent
rainfall. All sites are forecast to remain below flood stage.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Sheets
HYDROLOGY...Sheets


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