Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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823
FXUS63 KDVN 141125
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
625 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Clear skies and light winds are common across the area early this
morning as high pressure is settling over the region. At 2 AM,
temperatures were in the 30s, ranging from 30 in Monticello to 39 in
Moline, Savanna, and Sterling.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

A Frost Advisory remains in effect for much of the area through
sunrise.

Today, plenty of sunshine will be found across the area along with
light winds. Temperatures appear to be on track, with highs
expected to be in the lower 50s north to lower 60s south.

Tonight, the evening hours will be mostly clear, with clouds and
precipitation chances increasing during the late evening and
overnight hours as a warm front lifts NE into the area. Models
seemed to have slowed down bringing in some scattered showers and
storms, with dry conditions now expected until about 3 AM. Models
still indicate the best precip chances will be from NE Missouri
towards the Quad Cities and points east.  For now, slight chance
POPs are in the forecast for areas west of the MS River from 1-4 AM,
with 30 POPs along and east from 4-7 AM. Overall, it is a fast
moving system with generally light rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

A progressive weather pattern will be over the area this week
featuring a strong cold front moving through Tuesday, followed by
another round of windy and cold conditions Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A dry northwest upper level flow and surface high
pressure that follows will lead to dry weather with moderating
temperatures before the next fast moving frontal system brings rain
chances late Friday. Deep moisture return and a slower, stronger
system may bring significant rainfall for the weekend.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Latest models maintain consistent timing of
the cold front pushing through most of the area by early afternoon,
with prefrontal scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms well in
advance exiting our northwest Illinois counties by late morning. A
deepening surface and upper level low moving from MN into the
western Great Lakes will produce a strong cold air advection NW flow
overspreading the forecast area from NW to SE in the afternoon
and evening. This will produce brisk northwest winds from 20 to 30
mph, along with steady to falling temperatures after late morning
or midday highs in the lower 50s north to lower 60s southeast.
Although not currently in the forecast, a few showers may be
possible in the late afternoon and evening hours as the advancing
upper level trough sends a wave of upper level forcing. Cloudy,
cool and windy conditions then continue overnight through at least
Wednesday morning. Wrap around clouds will likely linger through
early afternoon, limiting highs to the upper 40s to lower 50s.
High pressure then returns by evening, leading to clearing skies,
diminishing wind and widespread lows in the 30s.

High temperatures return to the 60s by Friday as warmer air
returns ahead of the next fast moving frontal system that may
bring showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday night. Forecast
confidence remains low going into Saturday and Sunday, when a
developing southwest upper level level flow will return deep
moisture into the area. The 00z models generally suggest a dry
Saturday under weak surface ridging, with the surface warm front
focusing rain well to the south. Models then diverge with details
of the warm front and developing low pressure over the plains
going into Sunday with the potential for significant rainfall
well eastward, possibly affecting the forecast area. For now, the
forecast keeps a broad-brush approach with rain chances
throughout and near to above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

VFR can be expected through the period. Some wind shear is
expected late this evening and overnight at all terminals as a
southwesterly low level jet increases. There is a low chance for
showers or an isolated thunderstorm after 06Z. Introduced VCSH at
CID, BRL, and MLI for now, leaving mention out of DBQ at this time.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Cedar-Clinton-Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Jackson-Johnson-Jones-Lee-Linn-Louisa-
     Muscatine-Scott.

IL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Bureau-Carroll-
     Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer-
     Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside.

MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Clark.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...Sheets
AVIATION...14



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