165
FXUS63 KDVN 260430
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1030 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief cool down is expected Sunday before a January thaw
  sets in for much of next week with above normal temperatures.

- Strong, gusty westerly winds Monday potentially near advisory
  criteria.

- Active pattern next weekend featuring rain and snow chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

12z DVN RAOB sampled 130-140+ kt winds in proximity to an zonal
upper jet core across the Midwest. This along with a gusty
W/SW wind surface to 850 hPa has led to an abatement of the
bitterly cold air, with temperatures above freezing area-wide
(for the first time a week) and pushing into the 40s in some
locations near/south of I-80.

A cold front is progressing through the area this afternoon.
This will bring a setback on temperatures with a brief
shot of colder air over the next 24 hours. In addition, it will
be initially accompanied by gusty W/NW winds to 30-40 mph into
this evening before relaxing prior to dawn. Can`t also rule out
some flurries being wrung out in the cold air advection across
our north late this afternoon and early this evening, but with
vorticity becoming more channeled/weakening and moisture depth
shallow these may be more isolated.

Lows tonight are generally expected in the single digits and
teens with 925 hPa temperatures of -8c to -10c by 12z Sunday.
These will be modulated by the extent of high cloudiness (more
opaque = potential to be warmer than forecast /most prone is
south of I-80), thin = potential to be colder than forecast
/most prone is north of I-80).

Sunday will be quiet and seasonably cold with surface ridging
in control as it builds to our south. Winds should be much
lighter. With 925 hPa temperatures progged to remain in the
range of -8c to -10c, highs should top out in the mid/upper 20s
to near 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

West/northwest flow aloft will persist through mid-week, which
is normally a colder regime. However, we`re seeing some warmer
air (aided by downslope) being advected down from Canada and
the Northern Plains. We`ll reside toward the warmer side of
the west to east low/mid level thermal gradient and of the
main storm track, with a few low tracks expected to drop south
from Canada into the Great Lakes. Overall, we should see
above normal temps with highs mainly in the 30s and 40s into
late week while staying dry.

Backing up to Monday, winds will be the primary concern. The
combination of a tight pressure gradient (between a deep low
near Hudson Bay and high pressure to our south) and mixing of
high momentum air to the surface will lead to a windy day on
Monday. Bufkit soundings around 35-40 kt atop the mixed layer
in the afternoon, which would support gusts to 45 mph.
The concern, however is it`s not hard to see the potential for
temperatures overachieving (warmer than forecast) with plenty
of sunshine and a favorable W/SW direction to the wind. Should
this occur, it brings the concern for advisory winds as we
would mix deeper and potentially tap into 50+ kt of wind around
2-3kft agl. Something to monitor over the next day or so.
Given the above I have also pushed highs into the 75-90th
percentile of NBM on Monday, leading to widespread low to mid
40s for highs but potential for some upper 40s. Tuesday, while
not quite as windy still offers another potential to overachieve
on highs with SW low level flow. I have also gone toward NBM
75th percentile, which brings more widespread 40s with even some
lower 50s west/southwest as any remaining snow cover should be
gone. Bottom line, the deterministic models are likely
exhibiting a cool bias and not mixing deep enough, which results
in lower 925 hPa temperatures and this may extend further into
late week.

There are signs of a shift in the pattern and turning quite active
as we leave January and start February. The general consensus
of ensembles and deterministic models show a cutoff low in the
Southwest mid-week that eventually is ejected into the central
CONUS this weekend, as another trough develops across the west.
There is however, still plenty of differences in the strength,
track and timing, and also precipitation type although initially
the depth of the warm air looks to support rain to start, and
it will be more of question of extent/timing of cold air on backside
for any mix/change to snow. Something to keep an eye on in the
coming days. Beyond, the large scale pattern favors a western
trough and so we look to stay active further in February. This
is in line with The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) monthly outlook
which leans toward above normal precipitation for February. Winter
is not done yet, stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1028 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Winds will continue to decrease overnight as high pressure moves
through the Midwest. On Sunday winds will turn to the west by
mid-day with gusts up to 20 knots. Overall VFR conditions will
continue.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...08