Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 182324

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Issued at 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

A low level stratus deck has inhibited solar insulation and in turn
kept the area much cooler than the guidance was recommending.
Highs will barely reach into the 50s in the KC Metro area and that
is only if the slow clearing from the SW finally does make its
way north before the sun starts to sit. Northern Missouri will
most likely stay in the mid 40s today with little diurnal trend
due to the cloud coverage as well. Higher clouds will also be
making their way into the area behind this stratus deck as the
first signal of the next shortwave trough to affect the area. This
shortwave trough will exit the southern Rockies this evening
helping to develop a surface low over western Kansas. As this low
deepens it will help advect moisture from the Gulf of Mexico up
into our area with a warm front and occluded boundary providing
the lift necessary to make Monday a rather rainy day. The first
elevated boundary and isentropic accent will arrive near midnight
with some light rain showers possible as this feature moves from
the SW to NE. Frontogenesis over SE Kansas overnight will enhance
the warm frontal boundary and eventually allow wrap around
moisture and overrunning to push into our area Monday morning. A
strong low to mid level frontogenetic boundary will form just
south of the Missouri River after sunrise leading to a band of
moderate to heavy precipitation for a few hours as precip advects
along this W-E oriented boundary. PWAT values will be around 0.75"
which is near the 90% moving average so some areas may get rather
proficient precip rates of 0.25-0.5" an hour. Flash Flood
guidance is rather high with 1.75" in one hour or up to 3" for 6
hours so these rates should not result in flash flooding, but
some local streams and creeks may rise quickly where this area of
heavier precipitation falls. Overall this system will drop near
one inch of precipitation south of the Missouri River and between
0.25-0.5" to the north. The low will quickly move W to E across
Missouri with precipitation ending by late Monday afternoon into
the evening. A weak shortwave will follow this low creating chance
PoPs over northern Missouri tuesday morning that could result in
some mix of snow and rain as it pushes through with temperatures
staying rather cool in the mid to upper 40s.

Wednesday a southern return flow will start to develop allowing some
WAA to move into the area with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Mid
and upper level ridging will keep the area dry through the middle of
the week. The warmer trend will continue into Thursday with highs in
the mid to upper 60s.  The upper level ridge will break down quickly
as a shortwave trough moves across the Rockies Friday morning. This
will result in leeside troughing all along the central plains with a
low forming over central Kansas.  This low will push east developing
a warm front over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  There is
some model disagreement on how active this boundary will be as
currently it mainly GFS that has QPF with the ECMWF and Canadian
delaying the low movement until Friday night.  With this model
disagreement the PoPs have remained in the Slight Chance to Chance
range until there is better agreement on timing.  The most likely
timeframe for precip would be late Friday afternoon into Saturday
and more over central Missouri than western.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

A combination of MVFR and VFR conditions currently prevail across
the state line terminals, but showers are moving north across
southeast KS and southern MO. Current timing for the arrival of
storms has them spreading across the KC locations around midnight.
Expect an initial band of storms with a little lull in activity
early Monday morning with a heavier band of rain expected sliding
in the KC terminals around 12Z in the morning. With the surface
low passing just to the south, expect soupy conditions with IFR
conditions. Otherwise, the wind will back to the northeast
overnight, getting gusty by Monday afternoon as the surface low
passes through southern MO.




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