Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 191725

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1225 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Issued at 314 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

Water vapor imagery with 1.5 PVU pressures overlaid shows a
compact PV anomaly spinning eastward along the KS/OK state line.
The forcing associated with the wave is leading to showers and
thunderstorms over central to southeastern KS. As this upper level
wave pushes east this morning and through the day, this area of
precipitation will spread across mainly the southern half of the
forecast area. Instability will be weak and confined to the
extreme souther portions of the forecast area. So it still looks
like chances of anything severe remains quite low. With the
heaviest rain expected to track along and south of I-70, there
could be an 1 to 1.25 inches of rain across the southern third of
the forecast area. This is below headwater guidance for that part
of the forecast area, but given the widespread nature to the rain,
there`s a chance that some of the more rain-sensitive rivers
could reach minor flood stage. The other issue with this system,
and where the rain is expected to fall, is that there will be
little diurnal recovery in temperatures. Have lowered temperatures
several degrees along and south of I-70 due to the expected
rainfall and cloud cover. Some areas may not climb more than a few
degrees from the overnight lows. North of I-70, where the rain
will have a harder time reaching and where there is some potential
for some breaks in the clouds, temperatures may climb to the
lower 50s.

On the heals of this system, a weaker system will approach the area
from the northwest. Models have trended toward moving some light
precipitation into the northwestern quadrant of the forecast area.
So feel chance PoPs look reasonable for late tonight into tomorrow
morning for northeastern KS and Northwestern MO.

The middle of the week looks mostly dry with a warming trend.
Temperatures should warm back to the mid to upper 50s Wednesday.
Then the upper ridge really begins to influence the area Thursday
with strong warm advection leading to highs climbing into the mid to
upper 60s. For Friday, there is some variation in the models. The
GFS continues to show some light precipitation developing on the
leading edge of the warm advection in northeastern MO. The ECMWF
is less bullish but now has trended toward the GFS regarding this.
There is also much better consistency with the next storm system
that starts to track into the Plains Friday. With our area being
in the warm sector, it looks like we could see temperatures
climbing into the 70s across eastern KS and western MO. In our
northeast, where potential precipitation and cloud cover would be,
highs may only reach the middle 50s. Cooler temperatures should
move into the area for the weekend in the wake of the Friday


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

Showers will continue to diminish in intensity over the next hour,
but may linger at MKC and MCI through at least 19z. Primarily low-
end MVFR ceilings are expected through the afternoon, except over
the next hour or so at MCI where the heavier rain has temporarily
scattered out the lowest ceilings. Gusty northeast winds should
also begin to diminish slightly over the next few hours, but may
remain sustained at 12 to 15 kts through this evening. Eventually,
MVFR ceilings should scatter out to reveal a higher-based deck
around 4-5 kft for the evening and overnight hours.




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