Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 172021

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
321 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2018

The surface low and associated warm front have been slow to move
north but it`s working it way into the area. This has kept much
of the area cooler than we originally thought, but it`s still a
nice day compared to what we experienced this weekend. Highs
should be in the 60s and 70s for those south of HWY 36 and 50s for
those north. Tonight, the low will move east along the MO River,
bringing a chance for showers and maybe a few thunderstorms across
northern KS and MO. Any storm that develops is not expected to be

Once the low moves through, the winds will pick up and shift to the
northwest. They will be sustained between 25-30 mph with gusts up to
35 mph. Relative humidity is supposed to stay in the 30s, but with
the gusty winds and not much of a chance for a green up this April,
fire weather concerns are elevated for tomorrow. Caution needs to be
taken if burning because it won`t take much for fires to get out of

Thanks to the frontal passage, temperatures will be cooler
Wednesday. Those across northern MO aren`t expected to reach the
50s. Lows are expected to hover near freezing so plants may need
to be covered. Thursday and Friday a surface high and upper level
ridging will move across the Midwest, bringing dry conditions and
slightly warmer temperatures. We should still be below normal
(which is 66 deg), but the sun will be shining.

This weekend`s system continues to trend further south, decreasing
rain chances for our forecast area. The surface low is projected to
move east across AR and LA and the upper level low is also looks to
move across the country further south, across OK and AR. This
trend seems to be in response to the aforementioned surface high,
which will be centered over the Great Lakes at this point,
getting stronger and influencing our weather longer than
originally thought. As for precipitation chances, the ECMWF and
GFS depict a chance for rain in eastern KS and far western MO
Saturday morning through Sunday morning, while the Canadian keeps
us dry. When looking at soundings, we do seem pretty dry at the
lower levels, so it might be hard for precipitation to make it to
the ground. Hopefully that is the case and we can have a dry


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail for the first half of the TAF period.
Overnight, a surface low will move east along I-70 bringing a few
concerns. The first is LLWS is expected for a brief time as the
low and 850 mb LLJ passes overhead. Second, MVFR ceilings will
move in with the surface low. Low-end MVFR and IFR ceilings should
be observed in northern MO, with high-end MVFR ceilings expected
as far south as the KC Metro. The IFR and MVFR ceilings should
stick around until the end of the TAF period. The third concern is
gusty winds behind the cold front. Winds will shift to the
northwest once the low passes through and will become sustained
between 20-25 kts. Winds should gusts up to 30 kts.




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