Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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079
FXUS63 KDLH 162012
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
312 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Lake effect snow showers and scattered flurries are expected
tonight and Tuesday as high pressure builds into the Northland.

The remnants of the weekend storm remain over the Great Lakes
this afternoon. Cool cyclonic flow over the Northland has kept
clouds over much of the Northland. The stratus has thinned over
western zones and surface features are visible on GOES-16
satellite imagery. The northerly winds over western Lake Superior
will keep lake effect snow showers in play over Bayfield, Ashland,
and Iron Counties. The highest snow totals through Tuesday
morning are expected over northern Iron County where a Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect. Additional snow amounts from 1
to 4 inches are expected along the Penokee Range in Iron and
Ashland Counties. Scattered flurries will continue in the cyclonic
flow aloft over much of the rest of the Northland tonight.

A mid-level ridge to our west this afternoon will amplify as an
Omega Block pattern evolves tonight and Tuesday. Surface high
pressure will build into the Northern Plains in response to rising
heights working to scatter out the stratus over western and
central Minnesota. Cyclonic flow and upstream ice-covered lakes
over the Canadian Shield will keep stratus in the picture over our
eastern zones on Tuesday. Temperatures will trend warmer with
highs in north-central Minnesota in the low 40s to the middle 30s
in north-central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Summer is on its way, well maybe spring, but it may feel like
summer by the weekend when highs break into the mid to upper 50s
and maybe even up into the 60s. Now that the good news is out of
the way, we still have to endure another wintry system before that
happens. Luckily this one should be a quick hitter with most of
its energy going to the south of our CWA.

There is quite good model agreement on another wintry system that
should impact mainly Iowa into south-central Minnesota on
Wednesday. There is a chance some light wintry precipitation could
make it up into the southern parts of our CWA. This system is
quite different in dynamics than last weekends system. It`s more
of a tight pinwheel 500 vort max quickly passing in zonal flow.
There should not be a great deal of impact to the area with the
exception of some light icing/snow on roads. Accumulations should
be <1" for snow and only a couple hundredths for ice if it even
occurs. After this system passes, weather is quiet as high
pressure builds and eventually much warmer air. Melting the
snowpack will steal some of the heat, so not very confident on max
daily temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

The lingering affects of the weekend storm system will continue
across the terminals today. Stratus is gradually eroding over our
western forecast area, including INL and BRD. GOES-16 visible
satellite imagery shows surface features (lakes, rivers) visible
through the stratus even though observations feature OVC or BKN
skies. Lake- effect snow will continue to affect fields in
northwest Wisconsin this afternoon into this evening, including
HYR. Farther west, ceilings will gradually lift to VFR with light
snow showers continuing. Additional cloud cover may rotate over
INL later this afternoon and linger overnight. MVFR ceilings
should return to HYR on Tuesday morning as lake-effect processes
continue.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  39  25  35 /  10  10  10  30
INL  19  44  27  42 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  19  43  27  39 /   0   0  10  40
HYR  20  39  23  38 /  20   0  10  40
ASX  24  37  24  37 /  70  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ004.

MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...Huyck



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