Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 182345
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Convective activity has moved east this evening with the
instability as the SFC low and cold front marches east. Will
continue to see some light precip in the form of mist or drizzle
in the wake of the low track along the International border. Winds
peaked initially directly behind the cold front and have now
begun to decreased and will continue to do so into the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

The main concerns for the short term period are scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms across northwest and west central Minnesota
this afternoon, and widespread rain in the northern Red River Valley
on Thursday.

A stacked low pressure system over southeast Manitoba has initiated
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon from the Red
River Valley into the rest of northwest and west central Minnesota.
The main hazard so far has been damaging wind gusts, which are
likely being aided in part by high surface dewpoint depressions.
Most of the ongoing convection is on the northern periphery of
sufficient effective bulk shear for sustained updrafts, so the
general expectation is for a multicellular, pulse nature of the
convection to continue. Damaging wind gusts should remain the main
hazard, but marginally large hail cannot be ruled out. The threat
for severe storms should end trailing the surface front attendant to
the stacked low, which is on track to exit the forecast area by
early evening.

A deepening upper trough/low over the Northern Plains is expected to
bring widespread rain to the region on Thursday. The bulk of the
rain is forecast to fall during the day, but deformation zone
dynamics could prolong a steadier rainfall near the Canadian border
through the night. NBM4.1 QPF probabilities have continued the trend
of favoring lower amounts, with 1" probabilities no higher than 10
percent and 0.5" probabilities around 40 to 60 percent from
northeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. Southern parts of
the forecast area are likely to see lower rain amounts. There is
still a chance for a conditional severe threat in far southern parts
of the forecast area (around Fergus Falls) for a few hours Thursday
afternoon, but the 12 UTC HREF seems to have shifted south with the
parameters supporting this potential threat.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Well below normal temperatures are expected through the weekend,
with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing into
next week.

Chances for lighter rain will continue on Friday as an upper trough
axis sits over the region. The precipitation is expected to be much
lighter on Friday, with NBM4.1 mean QPF less than one tenth of an
inch. Highs on Friday are only expected to reach the mid 40s to mid
50s.

A northwest flow regime is forecast to setup behind the trough
passage. Strong cold-air advection combined with falling heights
will support unseasonably cool temperatures. Depending on degree of
clearing, frost or even freeze conditions will be possible both
Saturday and Sunday mornings. A transition to more of a westerly
zonal flow will allow for some moderation of temperatures heading
into next week. This pattern will support additional progressive/
embedded shortwave passages, but consistency in these features is
low at this range, which is to be expected. 12 UTC ensemble guidance
shows the highest probabilities for showers and possibly
thunderstorms during the extended period arriving on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

MVFR CIGs this evening at TVF and eventually GFK, DVL, and BJI as
stratus moves in behind the cold front. Wind gusts this evening
will taper off over the next couple hours. Question of whether
MVFR CIGs persist through the overnight into tomorrow or if there
will be a break before the next system arrives tomorrow morning.
Will be pessimistic and go with a persistent deck at BJI, TVF and
DVL. GFK and FAR may see some breaks before the rain moves in
tomorrow morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Majority of sites are on the way down from their previous crests,
with a handful still plateauing or slightly rising. Thanks to the dry
conditions over the past several days, the rivers where able to
slowly diminish, with a handful dropping below flood stage. We do
have a system moving in Today through Wednesday that will bring a
brief shower or two to the region especially along and south of I94.
Thursday looks to be more widespread rain across the entire region,
with up to an inch possible especially along and north of the
Highway 200 corridor. Thunderstorms will be possible as well, which
could to lead higher amounts across the area depending on where they
track and develop. Thunderstorms are possible across the entire CWA,
with the best chance over Otter Tail, Hubbard, and Grant counties.
How this impacts river is uncertain, but some type of impact is
possible especially where thunderstorms develop and track. Overland
flooding continues across NE ND, with satellite imagery showing farm
fields and county roads still flooded.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Hollan
LONG TERM...Hollan/DJR
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...Spender


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