359
FXUS63 KFGF 110848
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
348 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Varying thicknesses of upper level smoke will limit the amount
  of sun and affect temperatures and humidity levels through
  tonight and should clear out by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...Synopsis...

500mb low pushes into the Pacific Northwest, the flow turns more
south or southwest for Thursday through the weekend. The main 500mb
system eventually tracks northeast into central Manitoba, but the
trough axis may develop some light showers for Friday and Saturday
morning. Behind this wave, heights rebound again for the weekend
into early next week.

Today: Smoke is going to stick around throughout the day with
varying amounts across the Northern Plains. As the day progress, the
smoke will slowly filter out as the Northern Plains returns to a
more southerly flow and cuts off the wildfire smoke from the Western
US.

Thursday: The upper level low is going to start to run into the high
pressure ridge compressing the pressure gradient. This will give us
fairly gusty winds throughout the day for Eastern North Dakota and
the Red River valley for the Minnesota side.

Friday and the weekend: The upper level low start to move over the
ridge (high pressure system) and essentially flattening it as it
moves into Manitoba. This movement will create some light showers
for the late morning into the early afternoon in eastern North
Dakota. Accumulations look rather marginal as the probs of exceeding
0.25 inches is 30 percent and below across the forecast area. The
most favorable area is the Devils Lake Basin and the probs decrease
to less than 10 percent near the Eastern portion of our forecast
area from Roseau to Ottertail county. These showers may linger into
Saturday morning but we look to dry out by Saturday afternoon. The
Ridge looks to rebound over our area to keep us into a southern flow
pattern as the strongest portion of the ridge moves over the Eastern
US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Variable flight conditions are expected early in the TAF period
across parts of eastern ND (due to near surface smoke) and
northwest MN (due to fog and near surface smoke). IFR is most
likely in MN due to pockets of ground fog that guidance (and
current obs) support in areas of calm winds east of the frontal
zone that is already slowing down. By mid morning current
guidance supports near surface smoke improving and fog clearing
off. Northerly winds will tend to shift to the east through the
TAF period, increasing about 12kt at KDVL as low pressure builds
to the southwest.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...DJR