Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1128 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Issued at 957 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Raised temps in the south and lowered temps a bit in the north for
tonight. satellite indicated clouds have dissipated over eastern ND
and remain over parts of northwest MN. No other changes at this

UPDATE Issued at 701 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Added more flurries for tonight with clouds in the area. Little if
any accumulation. No other changes at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Temps the primary concern over the next 24 hours with clouds the
main factor. The temp curve for the overnight will be non diurnal
as high pressure just south of the FA and clear skies across the
southern valley combined with yesterdays fresh snow will see temps
quickly fall with sundown. Then temps will steady off during the
overnight as mixing increases. To the north across the Devils Lake
basin stratus continues to inch eastward within the mean low
level flow. How far east and how much influence clouds has on
temps will need to be monitored. Areas that see clouds persist
will have warmer low temps than areas that clear out.

Sunday will see increasing clouds with WAA and late afternoon
light snow chances in Devils Lake basin. Temps to warm near 30 in
the south and upper teens north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Sunday night through Monday...Cold, wintry weather continues
through Monday due to persistent northwest flow aloft as an
amplified ridge sits off the West Coast. On Sunday night, chances
for light snow move through with a weak shortwave aloft. With weak
forcing and limited moisture aloft, snow looks to be quite light
and isolated to scattered in nature. 850 mb temperatures in the
teens below zero and a north wind will bring a chilly Monday
morning with wind chills below zero. Temperatures on Monday will
likely peak in the single digits to teens above zero for most of
the forecast area.

Tuesday through Thursday...Another round of light snow or light
wintry mix is possible Tuesday as another weak shortwave pushes
through from Saskatchewan toward the Great Lakes. Warmer weather
begins to build in Tuesday, with temperatures moderating toward
normal values for the remainder of the work week. For Wednesday into
Thanksgiving Day, southerly flow and greater thicknesses build in
with the aforementioned ridge weakening and progressing east through
the Plains. By Thanksgiving Day, high temperatures look to reach
near or above the freezing mark. An early look at the holiday travel
period shows a generally dry forecast for Wednesday and Thursday,
with little to no impacts across the Northern Plains in that time

Friday into the weekend...Good model agreement on a longwave trough
pushing through the middle of the CONUS brings a signal for a more
active, wetter pattern across the Central Plains for next weekend.
However confidence is low in any details at this time, so maintained
low precipitation chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

MVFR stratus and flurries have transitioned out of eastern North
Dakota and is now over northwest Minnesota where these conditions
will likely prevail through the morning (flurries should end
during the morning). Additional MVFR cigs will develop by 12Z and
should then generally prevail across the region through the rest
of the TAF period with only brief periods of improvement. Light snow
chance begin to increase again late Sunday evening into the
overnight period Sunday night.




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