Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 272341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
641 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Minor changes to adjust for current sky cover/hourly trends in the
near term. Still monitoring frontal zone in our far south for
possible stronger storms where ML CAPE on mesoanalysis has
increase to 3000 J/KG range as previously expected. CAP is holding
however, so coverage would be limited and CAMs still not showing
a strong signal in this more favorable region of our CWA.
Radar/lighting data shows weak thunderstorm near Bemidji and
there is a subtle convergence zone that may favor more coverage
in line with CAMs (but this would be weaker due to less
instability). Overall, coverage/timing seemed reasonable and in
line with current trends, so no major changes seemed warranted at
this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Convective placement and timing are the main impacts for the
evening and overnight then again late tomorrow afternoon and
evening. This afternoons weak activity in the central valley has
continued to produce cloud cover across the central and southern
valley limiting max temps. Its also limited instability across the
FA. Latest mesoanalysis shows strong capping across the southern
FA with ML CAPE values near 1000J/kg. As clearing and SFC low
gradually nose into the SE FA guidance suggests ML CAPE of 2000 to
3000J/KG will develop in the SE ND by 7pm. CAMS continue to show
showers and storms developing in the 01 to 04Z time frame along
the Lisbon to Fargo To Park Rapids line. Will highlight the
highest chances through this area along the midlevel baroclinic
and convergence zone. Chances for severe storms remain low with
storms capable of hail up to an inch and wind gusts to 60mph in SE
ND this evening.

Showers and storms will be ending through the overnight as the
best forcing and potential for organized convection lifts north
out of the western SD west of the FA into west and central ND.
With western activity more cloud cover is expected similar to
today keeping temps of bit cooler than previously forecast with
highs in the low 80s and upper 70s for most. The far south will
see upper 80s and low 90s potential.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Monday night through Wednesday... Cooling trend from the hot
weekend with a return to near normal temperatures on Wednesday.
The chances for rain showers and thunderstorms continue through
Wednesday. This is driven by a surface low and upper trough that
are expected to move across the Dakotas. During this period the
Storm Prediction Center has eastern North Dakota and much of
Minnesota in a marginal risk for severe weather. There is quite a
bit of uncertainty in the severe potential for this period because
of the potential for convection in earlier periods. There are
areas of favorable shear and instability in the models but this
could change if earlier convection stabilizes the atmosphere.

Thursday through Sunday... A break in the active weather is
expected on Thursday as upper level ridging sets in before a
more active period returns for the next weekend. The GFS has
precipitable water anomalies of near an inch at times for this
next weekend so it could be quite wet. Temperatures will warm up
again Thursday and Friday before cooling back towards normal for
next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. Primary
concern will be potential for showers or even thunderstorms.
Better chances will be at KFAR and KBJI this evening, but can`t
be ruled out across the rest of eastern ND/northwest MN. After any
activity winds down late tonight (roughly 06-08Z) we expect a lull
in activity, with chances returning again during the later part of
the TAF period on Monday (not enough confidence to add to TAFs for
the later part of the TAF period).

Northeast winds will generally remain below 10kt through tonight,
with gusts during the day Monday 15-20kt.




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