Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

No changes for the mid-day update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Thin bands of light snow continue to rotate back into portions of
our eastern FA, especially from Waskish to Bemidji to Park Rapids.
Web cams show a little snow on the roads in these areas. To the
west, it remains mainly clear west of the Red River Valley. The
coolest temperatures stretch from Langdon to Cooperstown, with
values in the teens. Other than a few patches of clouds, expect
Monday to see mainly sunny conditions. Biggest challenge is how
warm it will get. 850mb temperatures look about 4C warmer than
yesterday, so bumped up high temperatures a little more today.
These warm conditions and sun should melt off any of the new snow
that fell over the past couple of days. Mainly clear skies
tonight, light winds, and a little snowmelt may result in patchy
fog, but will let day shift take another look at that. At this
point, think it would be Bemidji to Park Rapids, and possibly into
the far southern Red River Valley, all areas that picked up a
little snow the past couple of days.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Upper ridge over the region will keep forecast area dry through Tue
evening, when ridge slides east over MN/IA. Still some differences
in track and depth of upper low that will bring a chance for a
wintry mix Tue evening, spreading into the valley by early Wed
morning. Precip will linger over area through late Wed aftn with
precip type generally diurnal, bringing a potential wintry mix early
Wed morning...changing to rain during the afternoon. Forecast
soundings now showing enough dry air aloft that supercooled drops
may be more in form of drizzle over rain, but modeled thermal
profiles lack consistency. Some areas of freezing drizzle/rain
cannot be ruled out if changeover to rain begins before temps, with
lows generally in the upper 20s to low 30s, rise to above freezing
Wed morning. Next ridge moves over the region by mid-day Thu and
area should be dry for the end of the week through early next week.
Temperatures still expected to increase through the late
week/weekend with Thu through Mon highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Some MVFR ceilings have been lingering at KBJI into today as
moisture continues to rotate around the departing low pressure
system over the Great Lakes. Think that the clouds will eventually
pull out later this afternoon and KBJI will return to VFR before
00Z. The other TAF sites are all VFR and will remain so throughout
the period with only some cirrus to worry about. At all TAF sites
except KDVL winds are still breezy from the north to northwest at
15 kts with some higher gusts. Those will shift to the east to
southeast and match KDVL overnight into tomorrow morning, mainly
under 12 kts.




LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...JR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.