Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250818
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
318 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Main concerns today will be the very warm temperatures and
isolated thunderstorm chances. Near critical fire weather
conditions will be an additional impact (see fire weather section
below).

Water vapor imagery indicates a lot of little disturbances
upstream. Guidance is keying in on one such disturbance that will
affect mainly northwest Minnesota during peak heating leading to
isolated thunderstorm chances. Instability and deep layer shear
should be relatively weak, but given inverted-V type sounding with
deep mixed layer a stronger wind gust possible with any storm.
Will also need to monitor the potential for an isolated storm
across the southern forecast area this afternoon with CAM guidance
indicating a few storms (possibly keying in on upper level energy
across western South Dakota).

Deep layered westerly flow will advect in a very warm airmass
today (850mb temps @+20C). Deep mixed layer expected with dry air
advecting to the surface. Given the strong mixing potential along
with the dry airmass, temperatures should be able to easily climb
into the 90s across most areas along and west of the valley. Hot
and breezy today.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

An upper low over NV/UT area will keep northern tier under an upper
ridge through the weekend, with a weak wave bringing a chance of
showers and storms to central ND on Sunday, but weakening as they
move into the DVL area.  By Monday, we transition into a SW flow
aloft pattern as ridge flattens, with increasing chances of showers
and storms Sun night through Wednesday...with the upper trough
slowly lifting into MN by late Wed aftn.  Should see a break in
activity Wed night...although upper pattern is out of phase by 12Z
Thu and confidence decreases significantly for the end of the
week...but an eventual return to a SW flow pattern aloft will bring
more chances of activity from late in the week into the next
weekend. Primary challenges will be timing short waves embedded in
the SW flow throughout the period.  Temperatures will be warmest
this weekend, in the 80s and 90s, and decline to more seasonal temps
in the 70s and 80s for the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

VFR thru the pd. Winds mainly westerly in E ND/RRV 8 to 15 kts on
Friday and becoming westerly in Bemidji. Winds may be stronger and
will consider increasing winds with the next TAF issuance. Some
CU development psbl esp NE ND/NW MN Friday aftn.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Deep mixed layer this afternoon will lead to near critical fire
weather conditions across northeast North Dakota, with RH near
20% and westerly winds near 25 mph with stronger gusts. Elsewhere,
RH will be slightly higher and winds slightly weaker.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Riddle
FIRE WEATHER...TG


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