172
FXUS63 KFGF 091740
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1240 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms in parts of northwest Minnesota Friday
  afternoon.

- Chance for showers and thunderstorms mid next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Temps continue to climb through the 60s, so will continue with
going forecast a bit higher than NBM. A few cumulus clouds in
the southwestern and southeastern counties, but not expected to
have much impact on sensible weather.

UPDATE
Issued at 946 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Some mid level clouds continue to push south across southeastern
ND and west central MN, otherwise mostly sunny with temps in the
50s currently.

UPDATE
Issued at 654 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A few mid clouds moving south thru eastern ND, but overall will
maintain a mostly sunny sky today. Dayshift will monitor temps,
as RH values may fall more into the 20s if temps are even warmer
than fcst. But winds will be rather light in speed in the 8 to
13 mph range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Skies are mainly clear over the fcst area as drier air moves in
from the north-northeast. Expect a mostly sunny sky today with
dry airmass over the area due to high pressure in NW Ontario.
NBM temps Wednesday were too cool and did go more of a NBM/NBM90
blend in temps to boost highs 2-3 degrees today in the Red
River valley where it was warmest yesterday. RH values will drop
into the upper 20 to mid 30 percent range but north wind speeds
generally around 10-15 mph will preclude any near critical fire
weather conditions in addition to greenup progress due to recent
rainfall.

500 mb ridging east today across west and northwest Canada today
will allow for trough to return back south into NW Ontario and
the Great Lakes region late tonight into Friday. 500 mb short
wave with this feature will move south-southeast thru Minnesota
with 500 mb coldest temps located Baudette to Park Rapids and
east. Before this does a sfc trough will move east across the
area tonight in advance of the southeast moving system. 100 j/kg
CAPE and some mid level moisture may produce isolated showers
mid/late aftn in western Manitoba, far southeast Saskatchewan
and western half of ND. Trough will move east thru the fcst area
after dark and no precipitation is expected as it does.

With 500 mb short wave moving into Minnesota Friday, coldest 500
mb temps will align with high temps in the 60s in Minnesota to
generate 300-700 j/kg mostly in northeast, east central MN with
chance for thunderstorms. The western edge of t-storm chances
will be the Baudette to Park Rapids corridor. Moisture and
instability are considerably less farther west into the Red
River valley where chances for any showers Friday afternoon have
diminished to less than 15 pct. RH values will drop into the
upper 20s within the Red River valley. North-northwest winds
look to gust to 30-35 mph or so based on sounding potential
with mixing up past 800 mb. With greenup having occurred hard to
tell on fuels and if near critical fire wx wording is needed for
some areas. Will hold off and let future shifts look at this.

Another fast moving short wave from northern Manitoba will move
into NW Ontario Saturday and a weak surface boundary moving
thru as well. Timing of this wave in the late aftn/eve Saturday
will bring a slight chc of showers to NW MN.

Warm day on Sunday with highs well in the 70s all areas, with
potential 80 in the valley.

Next week still showing quite a bit of uncertainty in regards
to the upper air pattern. Overall trends remain that there will
be a trough over central Canada and the central US Tues-Thu
period with chances for showers and t-storms. Instability doesnt
look that high so nothing strong anticipated. Using NBM 4.1 48
hour probs for more than 0.50 inch in the 12z Tue-12z Thu period
is 30 percent and probs for more than 1 inch in that period is
10 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions now and throughout the period with only some
scattered cumulus clouds. Winds will be the primary issue with
some gusts to around 20 kts this afternoon that will drop off by
early evening. Winds will shift around to a more northwesterly
direction tonight into tomorrow, picking up with sustained
speeds in the 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to around 25 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR