Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
243 FXUS64 KFWD 151040 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 540 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms (15-25% chance) are expected this afternoon across much of Central and Northern Texas. - Highs in the 90s and high humidity will result in daily heat indices in the upper 90s and 100s. - Dry weather and near normal temperatures (upper 90s) are increasingly likely heading into this upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1250 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ /Through Wednesday Night/ Weak upper-level troughing is expected across the Southern Great Plains one more day (today) before ridging builds into the region starting Wednesday. As such, isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible (15-25% chance), almost entirely driven by diurnal heating. While storms may develop anywhere across Northern and Central Texas, the highest chances for rain are north of the I-20 corridor and west of the I-35 corridor. Highs should be in the low 90s, but may be in the upper 80s for locations that see rain, particularly if storms develop during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Tomorrow, highs will again be in the lower 90s, but skies should remain mostly clear with no chance for rain at this time. Lastly, with afternoon dew points remaining in the 70s, peak heat indices will likely range from 95 to 105 degrees both today and Wednesday. Darrah && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1250 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ /Thursday through Monday/ Weak ridging will continue to build into the region from the east, promoting a warming trend with high temperatures increasing into the upper 90s by this upcoming weekend. Though these temperatures are seasonal, a very moist airmass will also be in place, with afternoon dew points in the low and mid 70s. This will result in peak heat indices each day likely ranging from 100-109 degrees. While medium range guidance is generally in agreement of a more summer-like pattern taking hold for the end of the forecast period, there is still some points of uncertainty to address. This is primarily driven by a potential tropical system, that should it develop, would impact portions of the northern Gulf. Depending on the exact size and track of this system, regardless of whether it becomes a named tropical storm or not, our area may see additional cloud cover and precipitation which would act to keep temperatures below average into next week. Right now, this seems somewhat unlikely (30% chance), but is more likely than some medium guidance is suggesting. Darrah && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ There will be a brief window between 13Z and 16Z today where KACT may occasionally have brief periods of BKN/OVC MVFR cigs. Between 19Z and 00Z, there is also a low chance (15-20%) of isolated thunderstorms impacting D10 TAF sites. As of now, probabilities are too low to include in TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions, and south winds (160-200) of 5-15 kts are expected to prevail throughout the duration of this TAF forecast period. Darrah && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 76 94 76 96 / 20 5 0 0 0 Waco 91 74 92 73 93 / 10 5 0 0 0 Paris 91 74 93 73 95 / 30 10 0 0 0 Denton 94 75 95 75 96 / 30 5 5 0 0 McKinney 93 75 94 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 0 Dallas 94 76 95 76 97 / 20 5 0 0 0 Terrell 93 74 94 74 96 / 10 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 94 74 96 74 96 / 10 5 0 0 0 Temple 93 73 93 71 94 / 10 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 93 74 94 73 96 / 20 10 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$