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000
FXUS64 KFWD 080908
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
308 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1100 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021/
/Rest of Tonight through Tuesday Night/

A period of quiet weather will continue into early this week with
gradually warming temperatures and some increased cloud cover.
Broad high pressure over the eastern U.S. will continue to slowly
shift eastward with time, allowing southerly winds to continue
across North Texas. Flow will become somewhat zonal over the
Rockies through Tuesday keeping a broad lee side low in place
across eastern Colorado. This should help maintain a fairly tight
pressure gradient in place across the Plains. We`ll continue with
breezy southerly winds both Monday and Tuesday.

High cloud cover will increase some later today, but we should
generally maintain mostly sunny skies with highs in the lower 70s.
Continued southerly low level flow will eventually allow lower
clouds to spread northward across the region by Tuesday resulting
in a mostly cloudy day. It will still be warm though with highs in
the mid 70s.

The grass fire threat will continue, especially Monday where
humidity will drop to around 30% across the region with breezy
winds and warm temperatures. The increased cloud cover on Tuesday
and higher humidity may temper this threat some.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Through Early Next Week/

Warm and breezy conditions will continue through mid to late week
before a period of more active weather returns. Highs in the 70s
to low 80s are expected both Wednesday and Thursday with lows in
the 60s each night. Winds will be breezy, increasing to 15 to 25
mph each afternoon with an elevated fire weather threat expected
near and west of US-281.

Chances for rain and storms will increase Wednesday night, with a
few storms possible along the Red River. On Thursday, storm
chances will shift near and east of I-35. There is fair agreement
that steep lapse rates will be in place, potentially allowing a
few storms to produce small hail and frequent lightning. The
severe weather threat still appears low at this time, but we`re
continuing to monitor the potential very closely.

Friday will be another stormy day with rain chances expected
area-wide as a shortwave approaches the region. A few strong to
marginally severe storms may be possible throughout the day,
particularly north of I-20 and west of I-35 where a few hundred
Joules/kg of instability may exist. The primary threats will be
hail and damaging winds.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend with
another cold front sweeping through the area on Saturday. There is
still some disagreement in the progression of the upper low;
However, it`s possible that surface-based instability could
develop ahead of the cold front on Saturday. Both the quantity
and areal coverage of instability remains uncertain at this time,
but it`s worth checking back for updates throughout the week as
models gradually come into better agreement. Otherwise,
temperatures will return to seasonal values this weekend with the
active weather pattern continuing into early next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1100 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds
increasing to 15 to 20 kt Monday afternoon. We`ll see an increase
in high cloud cover through the day with MVFR cigs eventually
spreading back north across the region early Tuesday morning.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  54  74  60  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                71  53  75  60  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               68  49  71  56  72 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              71  53  74  59  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            70  52  73  59  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              71  54  75  61  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             71  51  74  58  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  52  74  59  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  53  75  59  78 /   0   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  52  75  59  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$