Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
892 FXUS64 KFWD 091055 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 555 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a low chance for storms to brush the Red River counties late tonight into early Sunday morning. - A more organized round of thunderstorms is expected Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves into the region. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 A few lingering showers and non-severe thunderstorms continue to move south across western portions of North and Central Texas. This activity will gradually weaken through the next couple of hours. The cold front that generated yesterday`s thunderstorm activity will retreat northward in response to lee cyclogenesis along the Front Range. For North and Central Texas, this means we`ll have to contend with a moist and moderately unstable airmass this afternoon. As the area of low pressure migrates southeast, closer to the Texas Panhandle, a dryline will sharpen across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms are once again expected to develop well northwest of our area and may attempt to organize into a few clusters through the evening. The overall flow pattern should keep the more organized activity north of the forecast area, but there remains a low chance that storms or associated outflow boundaries could brush the Red River counties late tonight early early Sunday morning. Any storms that make it this far south would likely be weakening, however gusty winds and small hail would still be possible. Otherwise, tonight will remain mild and humid with lows generally in the 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 The primary forecast concern remains the potential for widespread thunderstorms and severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening. A cold front will move southward into North Texas on Sunday while a seasonably moist and unstable airmass remains in place ahead of it. Daytime heating, moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, and increasing large-scale ascent should allow strong instability to develop by early afternoon. Thunderstorms may already be ongoing just north of the Red River early Sunday, but additional development is expected along the front as it moves into our region. Thunderstorm coverage should increase through the afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible across North Texas before activity spreads south and east into the rest of the region. Initial storms may include multicell clusters and embedded supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, storm mergers and cool pool interactions should favor a transition into one or more bowing clusters. If this evolution occurs, damaging winds would become the primary hazard, especially along and south of I-20 during the late afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible Sunday into Sunday night. Average rainfall amounts of around 1" appear reasonable for many locations, with localized higher totals (2"+) possible where storms train or repeatedly move over the same areas. The front and associated convection should continue moving south and east Sunday night into early Monday. Rain chances will gradually decrease from northwest to southeast on Monday as drier air filters into the region. A few lingering showers and storms may persist across Central Texas early Monday before the system exits. A quieter and more pleasant stretch of weather is expected for the middle of next week as ridging builds over West Texas and weak surface high pressure settles into the region. Temperatures will trend back into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the latter half of the week, with rain chances remain glow for much of the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 Concerns...Varying wind direction through the day. Low ceilings this morning, then again early Sunday morning. Mostly precipitation-free conditions are ongoing this early morning, however, varying ceilings, visibility and wind direction are complicating factors in today`s forecast. Last night`s thunderstorms released an outflow boundary that has slowly been making its way east through the morning. This boundary has now turned much of the DFW Metroplex TAF sites out of the west/northwest. For Waco, wind direction remains southerly. Through the course of the day, wind direction will turn clockwise with the period of light northerly winds extending from 16z to around 22z. Once winds regain a south to southeasterly component, expect them to remain out of the south through Sunday afternoon. Low ceilings are now impacting KACT and eastern portions of the north Texas TAF sites. Expect this to continue through late this morning before VFR returns to the region. Tonight, low ceilings will once again work their way into our region, impacting all TAF sites. MVFR is looking most likely, however, given increased moisture content, the potential for IFR will continue to be monitored. Improvements to Sunday`s ceilings will likely commence beyond 18z, ahead of an approaching cold front. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 69 84 62 / 0 0 80 70 Waco 85 69 87 64 / 0 0 40 80 Paris 83 64 78 60 / 10 10 80 60 Denton 85 68 82 58 / 0 10 80 60 McKinney 86 67 82 60 / 0 10 80 60 Dallas 87 69 85 62 / 0 0 80 70 Terrell 84 67 83 62 / 0 0 70 70 Corsicana 86 69 88 64 / 0 0 50 80 Temple 86 69 88 65 / 10 0 30 80 Mineral Wells 87 67 86 58 / 0 0 80 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez